The Texas Longhorns were on cruise control for the first half of the college football season before suffering their first setback. On Saturday afternoon, Texas looks to start rebuilding momentum when it hosts the Florida Gators in Austin, Texas.

Texas (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) is fifth in the initial College Football Playoff rankings and can play its way into the SEC championship game by winning its last four regular-season games.

Winning Saturday’s game might be easier because of Florida’s QB situation. Already down their first choice in Graham Mertz (knee), the Gators (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) may not have their second choice, DJ Lagway. Lagway injured his hamstring in the first half of last week’s game against Georgia and had to be carted off the field.

That means Texas could be facing third-stringer and walk-on Aidan Warner on Saturday. Fittingly, oddsmakers have listed the Longhorns as 21.5-point favorites.

Here are our Florida vs. Texas predictions and best bets.

CFB Week 11 Florida vs. Texas predictions and best bets

• Texas -21.5: -105 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
• Florida team total under 10.5 points: -105 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
• Quintrevion Wisner rushing yards over 66.5: -114 odds FanDuel Sportsbook

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

This is a great spot for Texas to pick up another win, especially if Lagway does not play for Florida.

Even if he does play, he won’t be 100 percent, though that may still be better than Warner. Against Georgia, Warner was 7-of-22 for 66 yards and one interception. That’s bad news for the Gators against the nation’s top defense, which limits opponents to 135.8 passing yards per game.

Even in the Longhorns’ last two games, which could have been better from their point of view, they limited the opponents’ passing production. Texas allowed 175 passing yards to Georgia and 155 to Vanderbilt. Those teams have successful quarterbacks. Florida does not have that luxury.

The Gators rank 12th out of 16 SEC teams with 145.4 rushing yards per game. If they don’t threaten in the passing game, the running game will be even less effective.

If the Longhorns are going to dominate this game, they will have plenty of time to run the ball. RB Quintrevion Wisner should flourish against Florida’s rush defense, which ranks next-to-last in the SEC at 162 yards per game allowed.

Wisner has eclipsed 66.5 rushing yards three times in the last three weeks. On Saturday, he’ll do it again.

Florida vs. Texas moneyline odds analysis

Why Texas could win as the favorite

Best odds: -1700 at bet365 Sportsbook

This will be a mismatch if Florida doesn’t bring an effective quarterback to the game. Texas has one of the best defenses in the nation and has been great against good quarterbacks. Florida does not have a great quarterback.

If the Gators can’t score, the Longhorns won’t have to do much on offense. They probably will anyway. Texas got its offense on track in last week’s win over Vanderbilt, and it should hit the ground running Saturday in front of the home fans.

Why Florida could win as the underdog

Best odds: +1100 at BetMGM Sportsbook

If Warner plays the whole game, this could be an ugly day for Florida. The Gators need Lagway to play if they want a chance to beat Texas.

Lagway excels at the deep ball. It’s why Florida had a chance late in the game against Tennessee, and why it crushed Florida. Lagway even completed a 43-yard TD pass to give the Gators an early lead against Georgia before leaving with the injury.

This could be a game worth watching if Lagway plays.