Florida vs. Maryland predictions, picks, best bets for March Madness Sweet 16
The NCAA Tournament’s second weekend is here, and it’s no surprise that Florida is still dancing.
The top-seeded Gators will take their eight-game win streak into the West region’s Sweet 16 against fourth-seeded Maryland on Thursday night at Chase Center in San Francisco.
The Gators are 14-1 in their past 15 games, including a dynasty-busting, two-point win over UConn in the second round in Raleigh. They have the second-shortest odds to win the national championship, trailing only East region No. 1 Duke.
The Gators are 6.5-point favorites and the total is around 156.5 and 157, according to the latest March Madness odds.
Florida vs. Maryland predictions and best bets
- Florida moneyline (-300) at BetMGM
- Florida -6.5 (-120) at FanDuel
- Under 157.5 points (-110) at bet365
The Gators may be averaging 85 points per game, but the defense gets turned up this time of the year, as UConn proved Sunday. The Huskies held the Gators to their fewest number of points (77) in about two months, and Maryland is far superior defensively than UConn.
The Terrapins have only allowed an opponent to top 80 points in four games this season, which is why we are firmly backing the Under. There is also some angst about laying 7+ points this time of the year, especially since Maryland’s eight losses have come by 28 total points.
Florida vs. Maryland moneyline odds analysis
Kevin Willard’s Terrapins have flown under the radar all season in the Big Ten, since they entered the NCAA Tournament ranked 11th in the country.
But Maryland is 1-3 against teams that are still playing, with its lone win coming over Michigan, which has the fourth-shortest national-championship odds, via FanDuel (+7500).
The Terps may stay within seven points, which makes wagering +7.5 at BetMGM intriguing. But if you recently signed up with FanDuel and have a win requirement attached to your potential $200 in bonus bets, Florida winning is a great use of that first wager.
Why Florida could win as the favorite
Best odds: -300 at FanDuel
Because it defends the 3-point line as well as any team in the country. The Gators rank seventh in the nation, and second among Southeastern Conference teams, in 3-point percentage against (29.3). So far in the tournament they have surrendered just 10 3-pointers on 43 attempts (23.2%).
The Terps are 17 for 40 (42.5%) from deep in the tournament and were third in the Big Ten in 3-point percentage (37.1%) this season. Selton Miguel shot 43.1 percent from deep this season, and guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie has at least two made 3-pointers in seven straight games.
Why Maryland could win as the underdog
Best odds: +245 at DraftKings
If the Terps make shots, protect the ball and play great defense. They led the Big Ten in blocks per game (4.6), were third in steals per game (7.2) and were fifth in the conference in defensive rebounds per game (24.5).
Maryland is averaging just 10 turnovers per game and only had six in its come-from-behind win over Colorado State. Florida isn’t a super-aggressive defensive team, since it only forces about 12 turnovers per game, so if the Terps can knock down shots from deep they can certainly pull off the upset.