Florida vs. Alabama prediction, picks: Best bets for Wednesday’s big SEC matchup
No.7-ranked Alabama hosts the No. 5-ranked Florida Gators this evening in at 7 PM EST in an SEC showdown sure to impact each team’s final seeding in the conference and NCAA tournament.
Either team could make a final push into a one seed this March, but only if they can close out the season strong with a win today.
The oddsmakers favor Alabama ahead of tip-off as the Crimson Tide are 2.5 to 3.5-point favorites depending on the platform. The over/under for the game can be found at 178.5 across all major sportsbooks.
Florida vs. Alabama predictions and best bets
- Under 178.5: -110 at BetMGM
- 5+ Largest Comeback: -110 at DraftKings
- Will Richard Over 13.5 points: +100 at FanDuel
Both offenses rank inside of the top five in KenPom’s offensive efficiency ratings. However, they are also both within the top-40 in defense, and trending up. While both teams can put up points, this line is far too high to skip on the under.
We took the largest comeback line in Alabama’s last game and it paid off, we’ll roll with it again tonight. In a battle between two high-caliber opponents, both teams will likely be able to establish a lead of five or more during the game. With no winner pick needed to tag on here, this one seems safest for a top-10 SEC matchup.
Sometimes the best thing you can do when betting is ride the hot hand. No one has been on a tear like Will Richard in college basketball, scoring 55 points in his last two outings. Even though he likely doesn’t keep this pace, he should get plenty of looks tonight to score 14 or more.
Florida vs. Alabama moneyline analysis
Why Alabama could win as the favorite
Best odds: -154 at FanDuel
While Mark Sears is the star of the show in Alabama, the Crimson Tide have four other players who average double-digit scoring to help make this roster the top scoring team in college basketball.
Coming off of a three-point loss this past Saturday to Tennessee, the Crimson Tide are back home looking to regain momentum with their sights set on Florida today.
The trends favor Alabama today as well. Three of the Gators’ losses came on the road this season, and while the Gators are 25-4 overall, they’re just 2-2 as road underdogs. Conversely, the Crimson Tide are 12-2 this year as home favorites.
A key difference between these two squads is that Alabama’s defense ranks 35th in adjusted efficiency. However, they’ve done so against the top-rated schedule regarding offensive efficiency, so they’re incredibly battle-tested against top programs.
Nate Oats and company will be looking to regain momentum and re-establish themselves atop the ranks of college basketball heading into conference tournament season. Winning tonight’s game against Florida could be a strong step in doing so.
Why Florida could win as the underdog
Best odds: +140 at bet365
Florida’s offense centers around their three guards— Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin, and Will Richard. The trio combines for an average of over 45 points per game, all shoot from over 36% from three-point range.
After a road loss to Georgia, the Gators bounced back with a convincing 19-point victory over the 22nd-ranked Texas A&M Aggies, who just knocked off Auburn at home last night.
Florida has been extremely impressive all season with a 12-4 record in conference play, and a 6-4 record as Quad 1 teams. On top of that, the team is well-balanced. They rank fourth in KenPom’s offensive efficiency rankings and eighth in defensive efficiency.
If the Gators hope to go on the road and beat Alabama, they’ll need to slow down the highest scoring team in the country.
Luckily for them, they allow the second-lowest field goal percentage in the SEC. This game could quickly turn in their favor if they can get the Crimson Tide out of rhythm.
It’s sure to be a great game tonight with both teams battling for the No. 2 spot in the conference standings, don’t count out the Gators to find a way to pull it off against an Alabama team that’s dropped three of their last five games.