Alabama football has lost two of its last three games and must be perfect moving forward for a shot to repeat as SEC champions.

With matchups against No. 21 Missouri and No. 8 LSU up next, it’s make-or-break time in Tuscaloosa. If Alabama drops another game, it’ll be the first three-loss season since 2010.

Oddsmakers aren’t expecting a defeat in Week 9, as the Tide are a heavy favorite over Missouri.

Missouri vs. Alabama early prediction and best bet

• Alabama -13.5: -110 odds at Fanatics

Missouri’s defense has been subpar, and I’m betting on Alabama to take advantage.

The Crimson Tide may finally get something going in the running game versus a unit that’s allowed 164 rushing yards a game against SEC opponents. The Tigers also have given up six rushing touchdowns in four games versus power-conference teams.

QB Jalen Milroe’s turnovers have been detrimental to Alabama, but relief is on the way if RBs Jam Miller and Justice Haynes are productive. WR Ryan Williams hasn’t gone over 85 receiving yards since the Georgia game, and I expect that to change if Missouri’s defense is focused on stopping the run.

Missouri has trounced inferior competition, earning a +131 scoring differential against Murray State, Buffalo and UMass. When the Tigers face closer to equal competition, things have gone poorly.

Missouri narrowly beat Vanderbilt, Boston College and Auburn, and lost 41-10 versus Texas A&M.

Tigers QB Brady Cook may not be 100% after an ankle injury in Week 8. Cook exited mid-game for an MRI but returned later to lead Missouri to a win.

If Cook can’t go or needs to be replaced against Alabama, QB Drew Pyne will be under center. Pyne hasn’t seen the field much since 2023, throwing for 479 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions.

Missouri vs. Alabama moneyline odds analysis

Why Alabama can win as the favorite

Best odds: -500 at DraftKings

Since the first half against Georgia, Alabama hasn’t looked like the team fans have grown accustomed to. The Crimson Tide were upset by Vanderbilt the following week, squeaked out a two-point win over South Carolina and fell short versus Tennessee.

Alabama’s offense seems to perform only when Milroe runs the ball well. The Tide are winless in games that Milroe doesn’t rush for multiple touchdowns.

The RBs haven’t totaled more than 68 yards in the previous three games. Luckily, Missouri struggles against the rush, and Alabama should get better production from Miller and Haynes.

The entire offense would get a major boost from a well-balanced attack. Milroe has thrown six interceptions in the last four games, and those numbers will diminish if Alabama can pound the rock.

Why Missouri can win as the underdog

Best odds: +430 at Caesars

Missouri allows 30 points per game in SEC play and that can’t continue for the Tigers to have a chance of beating Alabama. However, Missouri hasn’t allowed many big plays of 20+ yards, which is the Crimson Tide’s strong suit.

Williams is Milroe’s go-to WR, but Alabama’s pass-catching depth is limited beyond Williams.

If the Tigers can hold the freshman in check, the Tide could struggle to move it through the air. Of course, that’s much easier said than done.

Cook and WR Luther Burden were a stellar duo last season, but that hasn’t continued in 2024. Cook has surpassed 230 passing yards only once, and Burden has just one game with 100+ receiving yards.

If the pair can channel its dominance from 2023, Missouri will have a great shot at stealing a win in Tuscaloosa.