Evaluating Alabama football preseason predictions before LSU matchup
No one quite knew how chaotic the 2023 Alabama football season would be.
In public perception, the sky was falling in September and now Alabama has gotten closer to its national title standards throughout SEC play and into November. Through multiple quarterbacks, an opposing coach hinting at a UA staff shakeup and a batch of injuries, the Tide has built an identity as a hard-nosed team that has a tendency to play close games.
Before Alabama (7-1, 5-0) continues its prep for LSU this Saturday, let’s take a look back at preseason predictions and how Alabama has surpassed, or fallen short, of expectations.
Prediction: Dallas Turner breaks personal sack record
Heading into the fall, Dallas Turner’s highest number of sacks in one season was 8.5. Through eight games this year, Turner already has eight sacks, 10 quarterback hurries and two forced fumbles. The Tide’s best defender has arguably eclipsed preseason hype of being Will Anderson’s successor and is shaping up to be a defensive player of the year candidate.
Prediction: 3 different quarterbacks start a game
Depending on how you gauge the depth chart listing, Alabama had three or four starting contenders through the initial month of the season. Saban admitted that he told Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson and Tyler Buchner that they would each get an opportunity. Milroe won the job out of camp, but a pair of Texas turnovers led to Buchner starting Week 3 at USF, then being replaced by Simpson in a messy 17-3 win in Tampa.
Milroe has since improved with more reps and when the turnovers have come, he’s responded with better play. He’s completing 64.7% of his passes with 18 total touchdowns. BetMGM has Milroe tied with Sam Hartman for the 11th-best Heisman Award odds at +10000.
Prediction: Jase McClellan leads the Tide in rushing
Alabama has four starting-caliber backs, but the seniors have carried the load so far. Jase McClellan (569), Roydell Williams (339), and Jalen Milroe (142) are the only players with triple-digit rushing yards. As far as carries, however, McClellan has been the bell cow with 122 attempts to Williams’ 67.
McClellan is averaging 4.7 yards per carry with four touchdowns. The rotation has tightened due to their ability to pass protect. McClellan has shown the most consistency, as well as catching 10 passes for 72 yards, most of any running back.
Prediction: Alabama OL will be second-best in SEC, 4th best nationally
The biggest weakness of the Tide is its inability to keep Milroe upright. While the quarterback has held onto the ball too long at times, the offensive line has tried different starters and pairings to minimal success. Through Week 9 games, Alabama is tied for the fifth-most sacks allowed nationally (35) out of 133 programs.
Much attention has been paid to the left tackle spot, an ongoing split between true freshman Kadyn Proctor and second-year player Elijah Pritchett. Both have struggled with penalties and the pass rush. The right guard spot has also been in flux with Darrian Dalcourt and Terrence Ferguson missing time due to injury. Redshirt sophomore Jaeden Roberts has emerged in conference play.
Prediction: Overall offensive regression
Phil Steele believed Alabama’s offense would take a slight dip without Bryce Young and Jahmyr Gibbs. Steele’s computations had the Tide producing 438 yards and 37.1 points per game, which he noted would be their lowest total since 2017.
In reality, Alabama is averaging 366.6 yards and 30.6 points per game, respectively. The Tide is ranked 78th in total offense, slightly ahead of Syracuse, Illinois and Old Dominion.
Prediction: Big seasons from Jermaine Burton and Ja’Corey Brooks
Burton quickly proved himself to be Milroe’s favorite target. The pair’s deep-ball chemistry is one of the hallmarks of Alabama’s offensive attack, with Milroe looking to the Georgia transfer in crunch time. Burton is tied with Isaiah Bond with 23 catches but is leading UA with 508 yards and five touchdowns.
As for Brooks, it was a weird start when he was held out of the first half in the season-opener. Brooks has made sporadic appearances as a route-runner since, making his most impact as a special teams player. Brooks blocked the third punt of his career against Ole Miss, setting Alabama up at the 1-yard line.
Nick Alvarez is a reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @nick_a_alvarez or email him at [email protected].