A key Democratic strategist said the election tide is turning in favor of President Joe Biden’s bid for a second term in office.

Following a poll by the Economist, Simon Rosenberg posted to X, formerly Twitter, that it was “time now for stories on how the election is changing, Biden is gaining ground. Data is clear as day now,” he wrote.

The Economist poll showed Biden ahead of Trump 46% to 45%, a narrow margin that Rosenberg maintains is significant. The same poll showed the two locked at 45% each as recently as March 31, though the two have been within a few percentage points of each other since the last year.

“Biden is gaining ground. The Congressional Generic is improving. Dem Senate polling is holding. National landscape for Democrats has gotten better in recent weeks,” he wrote. “It is no longer accurate to say Trump leads or is favored.”

The Economist had a bleaker view of the race, however.

“Both men are unpopular. The election will be less a popularity contest than a referendum on which man Americans think is the least bad option,” it said in its analysis of the poll.

Tight race

FiveThirtyEight.com, which tracks a variety of presidential polls, shows a similarly tight race. The TIPP Insights Poll gives Biden a 3-percentage point lead – 43% to 40% – when facing off against Trump in a head-to-head matchup. Emerson College polling, however, has Trump at 51% to Biden’s 49% while YouGov had the two locked at 43% each.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden’s approval rating stands at 40% compared to 55% disapproval as of April 8. Trump’s approval rating is at 42%, compared to a disapproval rating of 53%, according to the tracker.