Early predictions for Alabama QB battle: Will Keelon Russell win the job?

Gentlemen, start your quarterbacks.

The race to win the starting job for Alabama football in 2025 is about to begin.

Right now, there are three contenders. Two have already been on campus. One arrived this week. And now Ty Simpson, Austin Mack and Keelon Russell will battle to see who can take the job left vacant with the departure of Jalen Milroe to the NFL Draft.

Let’s take a closer look at each contender, in no particular ord

Contender: Austin Mack

Year: Redshirt sophomore

Measurables: 6-6, 236 pounds

He was the fourth quarterback on the depth chart this season behind Milroe, Simpson and Dylan Lonergan, but Mack is viewed as someone with long-term upside. He will be in his third season with DeBoer, having spent one year at Washington before transferring to join DeBoer in Tuscaloosa. Mack is young, though. He was supposed to be a senior in high school during the 2023 season in which he redshirted. Mack is known for his hard work, including the important role he played in the prep for LSU.

Alabama quarterback Austin Mack (10) warms up before an NCAA college football game against Mercer, Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024, in Tuscaloosa, Ala. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)AP

Contender: Keelon Russell

Year: True freshman

Measurables: 6-3, 175 pounds

He went from an SMU commit to an Alabama signee while rocketing up recruiting rankings through the process. Russell, whose primary recruiter was offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan, rose to the No. 2 prospect overall in the 2025 recruiting rankings, per the 247Sports Composite.

Russell was named Gatorade Player of the Year after he passed for more than 3,000 yards and almost 50 touchdowns in 2024. He also was part of back-to-back state championships at Duncanville in 2022 and 2023.

Simply put, he’s a winner and an elite athlete and passer.

Keelon Russell

Grand Elite’s Keelon Russell, No. 15, runs with the ball during during the game against Team Lillard in the OT7 Dallas Football tournament Saturday, April 13, 2024, in Farmers Branch, Texas. (AP Photo/Brad Tollefson)AP

Contender: Ty Simpson

Year: Redshirt junior

Measurables: 6-2, 215 pounds

Simpson didn’t win the job two years ago when he battled with Milroe and Tyler Buchner to replace Bryce Young. But Simpson was only heading into his second season of college football then.

He now has three seasons of experience. And the former five-star quarterback brings plenty of intrigue. The son of a coach, Simpson can make any throw. He can’t run like Milroe; no one can. But Simpson can make plays with his legs.

Ty Simpson

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson (15) sets up a play against Western Kentucky during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024, in Tuscaloosa, Ala. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)AP

Early prediction for Alabama quarterback competition

So how does this play out?

At this juncture, before Alabama has gone through spring practices and fall camp, Simpson sits in pole position. He will have to win it; it won’t be handed to him. But the belief is he’s capable.

Simpson is the most experienced, and his year in DeBoer’s system is valuable. In fact, it gives him an edge. Just look at past DeBoer quarterbacks in their second years in his system: Michael Penix Jr. was the Heisman Trophy runner up in 2023 at Washington in his second year. At Fresno State, Jake Haener improved his stats from 2,021 yards and 14 touchdowns in his first year to 4,096 yards and 33 touchdowns in his second year. Fresno State only played six games the first year because of COVID-19, but it was still a jump nonetheless for Haener.

Simpson wasn’t the starter in his first year in the DeBoer system, but he was working with the playbook, play calls and more in practice and some game action. So a second season in the system could still lead to a strong year.

The question is, can Russell’s raw talent somehow supersede Simpson’s experience and specifically, experience in the system? It’s not impossible, but true freshmen don’t exactly start every day at quarterback for a program such as Alabama. Even one as talented as Russell. His future is incredibly bright, but it’s still no small task for a true freshmen to come in and lead an offense right away. Don’t rule it out completely. Just don’t necessarily bank on it happening.

For all of those reasons, we’ll give the edge to Simpson in this early prediction.

As for Mack, he could start at some point in his career, but it might still be too early. He probably has the longest odds to win the starting job with just under eight months until the 2025 season.

Prediction on Jan. 7: Ty Simpson will win Alabama starting quarterback job at start of 2025 season.

Nick Kelly is an Alabama beat writer for AL.com and the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on X and Instagram.