The Kansas City Chiefs are aiming to become the first team in NFL history to three-peat. In their way is the Philadelphia Eagles – the team they knocked off in an epic Super Bowl just two years ago.

DraftKings opened the line as Kansas City -1.5 and the over-under at 49.5. Caesars Sportsbook briefly moved to Chiefs -2 on Monday (before moving back to 1.5). DraftKings is holding firm at KC -1.5 thanks to solid early two-way action (55% of the money is on KC and 61% of the tickets are on the Chiefs).

DraftKings race and sportsbook operations director Johnny Avello said the big bets haven’t rolled in yet.

“Nothing really huge,” Avello said when Advance Local caught up with him on Monday.

“Low five figure bets right now. The line hasn’t moved at all. We opened KC 1.5 and the total at 49.5. Even though there’s been a lot of activity over the last 12 hours, no line movement whatsoever.”

In fact, Avello said he doesn’t expect much line movement over the next two weeks, adding that 1.5 is “the right number.”

“These teams played two years ago and it went right down to the wire. It could have went either way,” Avello noted of the 38-35 Chiefs’ win on a last-second field goal from Harrison Butker in Super Bowl 57. The Eagles were 1.5-point favorites in that game.

Saquon Barkley’s eye-popping Super Bowl prop

One thing that has everyone’s attention, including Avello, is Eagles’ RB Saquon Barkley’s rushing prop line. It’s the highest that Avello has ever booked (110+ yards at -147).

Only three players have rushed for 110+ yards in the Super Bowl over the past 18 years (Frank Gore, Dominic Rhodes and Thomas Jones).

“You don’t see those numbers usually,” Avello said. “He’s been breaking big ones; every game he breaks one for 50-60 yards and that’s what gets him there. … Sometimes (RB rushing yardage lines) have been in the 70’s and 80’s. It’s kind of unprecedented in a game like this.”

Barkley’s rushing prop for the NFC Championship game was around 125 and he went just under (118 yards).

A running back hasn’t won Super Bowl MVP since Broncos Hall of Famer Terrell Davis in 1998, but Avello thinks Barkley is more than capable of doing so. He has booked only Patrick Mahomes (+110) ahead of Barkley (+250) in the Super Bowl MVP market.

Super Bowl point spread line movement

At least one sportsbook, Caesars, briefly moved the Chiefs to -2 on Monday before going back to 1.5 later in the day, but Avello said: “We aren’t quick to move the line. We are pretty much the market maker, so we’ll move on a large bet or we won’t move at all.”

Avello said the big bets will come, but he’s not sure exactly when. Factors like professional groups, injuries and whims usually come into play when the Super Bowl rolls around. “It could be this week, next week, or it could be closer to game time.”

The general consensus I got from talking with Avello, however, is that he doesn’t expect this line to move much at all.

Another small Super Bowl spread

The days of huge Super Bowl spreads are long gone, and not just since wide-spread legalization took hold in 2018. Heck, even the key number of 3 is no longer in play when Super Bowl lines open. The opening Super Bowl spread has been 3 just once over the past seven years.

In fact, the biggest spread in the past 15 years came when Peyton Manning’s Colts (5-point favorites) lost to the Saints by two touchdowns in the “Surprise Onside Kick” Super Bowl in 2010).

That’s in sharp contrast to the 16 years prior to that, when all but three Super Bowl spreads were at least 7 points (and some much larger).

“Things have become so tight over the past five years or so,” Avello said. “There’s no 19-point favorite. I put that up once (in 1994 when the 49ers played the Chargers in Super Bowl 27; San Fran covered).

“Even 7 doesn’t feel like it could be part of the equation. Teams are much closer than they were years ago.”

This year’s line seems to be spot on. It’s hard to bet against the Chiefs winning a close game these days. Kansas City has won NFL-record 17 straight one score games after surviving the Bills on Sunday night.

DraftKings dodges El Presidente’s $1 million Super Bowl futures bet

That Chiefs returning to the Super Bowl was a great result for Avello and DraftKings, which infamously took a $1 million bet on the Bills to win the Super Bowl at +550 (made by Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy).

That $1 million bet on the Bills to win the Super Bowl was DraftKings’ biggest liability in the Super Bowl futures betting market.

“Detroit losing was also good for us,” says Avello, adding, “Now, no matter who wins, we’ll be OK.”

Taylor Swift Super Bowl props returning

Avello is certainly OK with the return of Taylor Swift to The Big Game. Avello said those special props tied to her song names have been extremely popular and will be back this year.

“We’ll probably do something similar to that again.”

Avello is happy Swift props are back in play, even if NFL fans aren’t as thrilled about it. Where he is in alignment with most fans is he isn’t in love with a Super Bowl rematch this soon.

“I kind of would have liked to see a different matchup,” the veteran oddsmaker said. “I don’t like seeing two teams that played a couple years ago play again.”

Can this Chiefs team really three-peat?

The Chiefs are the first team in NFL history to return to the Super Bowl after winning the previous two.

There is obviously some roster turnover, specifically when it comes to their receiving corps. They scrapped by so many times this year, the perception is they aren’t as good as Kansas City’s previous Super Bowl winning teams.

Who would know how this team stacks up against its predecessors better than the man that has booked Super Bowls for the better part of three decades?

“This team is probably better than last year’s team,” Avello said. “I’m not sure it’s as good as the first Super Bowl team, but it doesn’t really matter.

“They are like the Patriots’ dynasty. They’ve got three people: A quarterback, a coach and one key guy who’s been there the whole time, and that’s Travis Kelce; with the Patriots it was Belichick, Brady and Gronk. They have a good system. They just plug guys in. They have a great defensive coordinator (Steve Spagnuolo). I think he makes the difference in a lot of games. It works for them and no one has been able to duplicate it.”

A Mahomes betting trend is back for The Big Game

Another storyline sure to dominate betting circles is alive for this game. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is notoriously poor ATS when the Chiefs are big favorites. He’s 22-32-3 ATS when favored by seven points or more in his career, according to Evan Abrams of Action Network.

However, he’s 28-9-1 as an underdog or a favorite of three points or less. Mahomes is 8-0 in the playoffs as either an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal. In the Super Bowl, he’s 3-1 ATS, with each of his wins coming as a favorite of three points or less.

Avello said he doesn’t see this line approaching the key number of 3, meaning backing Mahomes seems like a pretty solid bet.

“I don’t think it’s making 3,” Avello said. “If it goes to three then it’s probably a take (meaning pro bettors will jump all over it). I can see it going from 1 to 2.5, but I can’t see it crossing any major numbers here.”

Avello noted that the Chiefs “don’t cover much, but they win, and this is a short moneyline price.”

For the record, 47% of the bets and 49% of the early money is on the Chiefs’ moneyline (-130) at DraftKings.

Handicapping a Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl rematch

Super Bowl 59 marks just the second time ever that the same teams will meet twice in a three-year span. The other time was 1992 and 1993 when the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills met in back-to-back years. Those games weren’t competitive.

The last time the Chiefs and Eagles met was extremely close, with Kansas City winning on a 27-yard field goal from Harrison Butker with eight seconds left. The Eagles were 1.5-point favorites in that game.

What, if anything, can we take from that game? More importantly, how did Avello go about handicapping the rematch with so much familiarity and roster continuity involved?

“Both teams are playing well,” Avello said when asked his first thoughts on handicapping the rematch. “No one snuck up on anyone. Both teams are good and the power ratings are close, but the Chiefs were slightly a bigger favorite, and obviously at this point, that is the right number.

“I don’t know if anyone expected Kansas City to get here, but they never had really high odds. And the reason we didn’t expect them to get here again was it’s just too difficult to get to the Super Bowl three years in a row.”

Avello was looking forward to a better NFC Championship game. “Detroit vs. Philly would have been intriguing, but obviously that never materialized.”

Super Bowl 59 Over-Under betting

Super Bowl 57 between these teams finished 38-35. As for the rematch’s total of 49.5, Avello said, “It seems like it will be an offensive game, but you never know.”

The Eagles are coming off a NFC Championship record 55-point outburst, while the Chiefs scored more than 30 points for the first time this season. Bettors at DraftKings agree with Avello thus far, with 86% of the money and 85% of the tickets on the Over currently.

Super Bowl 59 anytime TD betting

Anytime TD scorer bets are all the rage over the past few years. Let’s face it: They’re fun because they’re low-risk high-reward bets. Sportsbooks bear the brunt of it when a long-shot scores, or a big favorite that’s tied into parlays scores.

So, aside from Saquon Barkley (-195, +450 first TD, +280 for 2 TDs), where does Avello expect DraftKings to be most liable in the anytime TD market?

“Travis Kelce (+130 anytime, +1000 to score first), Jalen Hurts (-105 anytime, +650 to score first) both those guys will be played as not only anytime TDs, but first TD scorers,” Avello said. “Kareem Hunt and (Xavier) Worthy are in the mix as the main guys (we don’t want scoring).

Avello said one of his top long-shots is JuJu Smith-Schuster (+3500), who had 3 catches for 60 yards (his best game since early October) in the AFC Championship game. He also mentioned Chiefs WR Justin Watson because, “defenses key on certain guys and other guys may be overlooked.”

Super Bowl safety bets kicked out?

One of the favorite bets many people make is will there be a safety in the Super Bowl, but that’s not something Avello loses much sleep over anymore.

“Yes” is listed at +1400, while “No” is at -3500.

“No, not really (concerned),” Avello said. “I got absolutely murdered on that when the ball flew over Peyton Manning’s head (on the first play of Super Bowl 48 between the Broncos and Seahawks in 2014).

“I lost $150,000 on that prop (first score a safety). Down $150,000 before the second play from scrimmage. Now, it will have to be a coach that has his punter run out of the end zone because he’s afraid to get his punt blocked. The new kick-off rules make the “safety as the first score” bet harder with the ball at the 30.”