Two of the most dominant college basketball teams square off in the nightcap of Saturday’s Final Four doubleheader in San Antonio, Texas.

East region No. 1 seed Duke (35-3 SU, 25-13 ATS) faces Midwest region No. 1 Houston (34-4 SU SU, 20-17-1 ATS) for a berth in the NCAA Tournament national championship game on Monday night.

Both teams have crushed the competition all season with offense and defense near the top of the national rankings. Duke and Houston scored statement wins in the Elite Eight to reach the national semifinals.

Duke is between a 5 and 5.5-point favorite over the Cougars, according to the latest March Madness odds. The Over/Under is 136.5 points. Here are our Duke vs. Houston predictions, picks and best bets for the Final Four.

Duke vs. Houston predictions and best bets

• Duke -5: -110 odds at bet365 Sportsbook
• Over 136.5 points -110 odds at BetMGM Sportsbook

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of writing; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

Don’t bother looking for big flaws in Duke and Houston. You won’t find any. The Blue Devils and Cougars were favorites to reach the Final Four from the middle of the season. They have not disappointed in their runs through March Madness.

If there’s one difference between them, it’s that the Blue Devils are almost as good as Houston on defense and significantly better on offense. That should make a difference on Saturday night.

While both teams are talented, Duke’s is significantly better at the top of the roster. Three players — Cooper Flagg, Khaman Maluach and Kon Knueppel — are projected to go in the top 10 of the 2025 NBA Draft. Houston does not have any players projected in the first round.

That matters in a game that should be tougher than usual for Duke’s offense. The Blue Devils have more reliable scorers. If the Cougars focus on one or two, the other players can take advantage. Don’t forget veteran guard Tyrese Proctor, who shoots 45% from the field.

While Houston deserves praise for its defense, it hasn’t been as solid against the best offenses. The Cougars have allowed 58.3 points per game, but that number rises significantly against teams in the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency.

In five games against that group, Houston allowed 75.6 points per game. Those opponents were Gonzaga (third), Auburn (sixth), Texas Tech twice (8th) and Alabama (ninth). Houston went 2-3 in those games.

Duke is the No. 1-ranked team in offensive efficiency. With a 25-13 ATS record (65.8%), the Blue Devils are the 12th-best cover team in the nation. Their average margin on the point spread is +4.5 points, which includes games they did not cover, so it’s not like they’re tip-toeing the spread.

Look for Duke to cover this 5-point spread against Houston. That trend supports taking the Over on Saturday, too. In those five Houston games, the Over went 4-1 and covered the total by an average of 17.4 points.

The only Under was the second game against Texas Tech, which went Under by 1 point. The first game against Texas Tech and the game against Alabama went Over by 35.5 points apiece.

Duke vs. Houston moneyline odds analysis

Why Duke could win as the favorite

Best odds: -255 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Big players bring their best in the Final Four. That will be the case again for Duke against Houston. Cooper Flagg was named the Associated Press Men’s Basketball Player of the Year, becoming the fourth freshman (Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant) to earn the honor.

Don’t be surprised if Flagg stands out on Saturday and Monday. Unfortunately for Houston, Flagg is just the tip of the iceberg. Duke surrounds Flagg with studs who play off of him brilliantly. They’re well-rounded, too.

They know how to find open shots. They can score. They can defend. Most importantly, they don’t get sucked into playing individually. Houston gets credit for its great culture, but Duke has that, too. Houston doesn’t have anything that Duke doesn’t, and Duke does more things at least a little bit better than the Cougars.

Why Houston could win as the underdog

Best odds: +235 at Caesars Sportsbook

Houston coach Kelvin Sampson has built a juggernaut in southeast Texas. The Cougars should not be taken lightly. They’re tough, gritty and talented. Nobody would be surprised if this team wins a national championship.

Defense and slow tempo are Houston’s calling cards. That is potentially a combination that can give Duke fits. The Blue Devils can score with the best, but what if the Cougars suffocate them to the point of frustration? Ask Tennessee how that feels.

Unlike recent seasons, Houston has solid scoring potential. As the second-best 3-point shooting team in the NCAA, Houston can stay in it from behind the arc.