The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is just days away on Sept. 10, but it has seemed rather quiet as of late.

However, hurricane forecasters are still thinking that the season will end up being a busy one — putting the odds of an above-average season at a whopping 90 percent.

NOAA forecasters are predicting 17 to 24 named storms, eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven Category 3 or stronger hurricanes. An average season has 14 named storms, severn hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

To date there have been five named storms. Three of those (Beryl, Debby and Ernesto) have become hurricanes, one a record-setting Category 5 for a brief time (Beryl).

And all five storms have made landfall — two of those in the United States (Beryl and Debby)

The last storm was Hurricane Ernesto, which made landfall in Bermuda on Aug. 17.

But the Atlantic has been suspiciously quiet since Ernesto, with no named storms and even no potential storms for forecasters to track — until a few days ago.

So should you assume that the hurricane outlook is going to be a bust?

No way, according to the National Weather Service’s Jason Beaman.

“I think it’s way too early to say any numbers forecast is not going to pan out,” he said. “The season’s a marathon, not a sprint, and we have a lot of season to go.”

The official end of the season is Nov. 30. Could we really get all those named storms by then?

“It could happen,” said Beaman, who is the meteorologist in charge at the weather service office in Mobile.

“It’s possible, simply because La Niña is developing and going to be strengthening as we go into October and November. So what that does is it keeps wind shear lower, and it’s going to keep conditions more favorable longer probably into November especially in the Caribbean. Maybe not so much by that point in the Gulf of Mexico but certainly where the total number of storms could increase based on that.”

Not only that, but much of the tropical Atlantic is very warm, record warm in some cases. And so is the Gulf of Mexico.

“The Gulf is like the rest of the Atlantic Basin — near record heat,” Beaman said. “If you look at not just the sea surface temperatures but you look at the oceanic heat content, that’s how deep the warm water goes below the surface, it’s at near record levels. So there’s plenty of fuel, unfortunately, in the tank. That’s only one part of what makes a hurricane, but certainly there’s a lot of fuel there. So should a storm get favorable conditions otherwise, it has a lot of energy to work with to potentially intensify.”

And the most dangerous part of the season has just begun for the Gulf Coast.

“If you look historically, our biggest hurricane impacts have been late August, September into mid-October,” he said. “So we’re just getting into the time of the season where we have the potential of seeing the bigger impacts. It doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, but we need to be of the mindset that we are going to be prepared if it does happen.”

WATCHING FAR TO THE EAST

There’s nothing going on in Gulf right now, and it’s been quiet since Hurricane Debby developed early this month in the southeastern Gulf and eventually made landfall on Florida’s Big Bend.

But the National Hurricane Center was watching two tropical disturbances in the central and eastern Atlantic on Friday. One of them could become a tropical depression next week as it nears the Caribbean.

The hurricane center thinks it will eventually move deeper into the Caribbean and track westward next week.

“We’re keeping an eye on it,” Beaman said. “It’s something to watch, as is anything this time of year. We look at a lot of different model guidance, and it’s not going to tell you absolutely yes or absolutely no something’s going to develop. But it’s showing that conditions are going to gradually become more favorable as we go through the next week or so for this system to potentially develop, especially when it gets into the Caribbean.”

Beyond that, he added, “it’s pure speculation.”

There are lot of factors that can influence the track of a tropical system. And it’s impossible to pinpoint those this far in the future.

“If it develops, if it ends up curving well to our east or getting to the Gulf of Mexico has everything to do with what kind of system it is and how it interacts with the upper-level pattern over the United States at that point. And this far out … we’re not that good,” Beaman said with a laugh. “It’d be pure speculation. So if you see somebody talking like they know specifically what’s going to happen, ignore it.”

STILL TIME TO PREPARE – JUST IN CASE

It’s a reminder, however, that it’s never too early to make sure you are prepared.

“Fortunately we don’t have anything coming at us right now. Now’s a great time to just review those plans,” he said. “If you’ve procrastinated or not been able to get to something that you think is important for your family or your plan, take advantage of that opportunity now while there is nothing out there.

“So take this time, review things, and don’t let your guard down,” he said. “Don’t worry or get upset about anything, but stay informed, and that’s going to help you through the rest of the season.’