The National Hurricane Center on Saturday continued to watch a tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf (or Bay of Campeche).

The system now has a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression, up from 20 percent Friday morning.

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system later today, the hurricane center said.

However, the storm is not expected to directly threaten the United States.

The hurricane center said the area of low pressure in question was located over the eastern Bay of Campeche near the coast of Mexico and appeared disorganized on Saturday.

However, forecasters think it could get better organized today and Sunday as it tracks to the west-northwest.

It could become a tropical depression, the hurricane center said, over the weekend before it moves inland over eastern Mexico on Monday.

A system has to have a defined surface circulation and winds of at least 40 mph to be considered a tropical storm and get a name. The next name on the 2025 storm list is Barry.

Tropical storm or not, the system could bring flooding rain to parts of Belize, Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.

It’s not expected to be a big weather maker for south Texas, however. The National Weather Service office in Brownsville, Texas, said on Saturday that “little to no impacts from this system are expected for deep south Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.”

If the storm were to become Tropical Storm Barry, it would be the second named storm of the 2025 season.

The first storm, Tropical Storm Andrea, formed June 24 in the central Atlantic, far from land, and dissipated less than 24 hours later. It’s highest winds were 40 mph.

Forecasters are expecting activity to pick up in the tropics later this summer, and there is a high chance for an above-average number of storms before the season’s end on Nov. 30.