Conclave begins: How long before new pope is revealed? Who is the most likely next pope?

The papal conclave to choose a successor to Pope Francis began Wednesday at 4:30 p.m. Vatican time, or 9:30 a.m. central time.

Alabama-based EWTN Global Catholic Network, the largest Catholic network in the world that was founded in 1981 by Mother Angelica, has been offering extensive coverage. EWTN has a bureau in Rome, but its headquarters remains in Irondale, east of Birmingham.

Pope Francis, head of the Roman Catholic Church since 2013, died April 21. He was 88.

The first ballot for a new pope will be cast tonight by the College of Cardinals, the highest-ranking officials in the Catholic Church, with 133 voting cardinals from 71 countries. They vote in the Sistine Chapel, where the ceiling was painted by Michelangelo from 1508-1512 A.D.

Afterwards, smoke will be sent up as a signal through the Sistine Chapel chimney, black indicating a ballot has taken place with no decision. When a pope is elected, white smoke will be sent up the chimney, and the new pope is announced to the public within an hour or two.

It’s unlikely a pope will be elected on the first ballot. Many of the cardinals barely know each other, and will look for potential candidates to emerge on the first ballot.

To elect a pope, the conclave must achieve a two-thirds majority for one candidate.

The conclave will have only one ballot on the first afternoon, but can have up to four votes per day after that, with two ballots in the morning and two in the afternoon.

The cardinals stay at a Vatican guest house, the House of St. Martha, where they also eat their meals, typically pasta, vegetables and bread.

After three days with no consensus on a new pope, the conclave may pause for a day of prayer and discussion. After 21 ballots, voting shifts to a run-off between the top two candidates, until one has a two-thirds majority.

As depicted in the Oscar-nominated movie “Conclave,” there are alliances likely to form as groups with various theological leanings align themselves for the secret balloting. Pope Francis, the first pope from South America, was considered by many a theological progressive, while predecessors Pope Benedict XVI from Germany and Pope John Paul II from Poland were considered theological conservatives.

Over the last century, the average conclave has taken about seven ballots, said Bishop Robert Barron of Minnesota, one of the commentators at St. Peter’s Square for EWTN.

Barron said he believed it may take until Friday for the cardinals to elect a new pope. The rituals are centuries old, and the cardinals are electing the 267th pope or bishop of Rome, with St. Peter, named by Jesus as the leader of the church, believed to have been the first.

The Church split in 1054 A.D. in the great schism, with what became the Eastern Orthodox Church taking issue with the bishop of Rome being considered to have “primacy” and authority over other bishops worldwide.

The historic and artistic magnitude of the setting and the office, along with the potential influence the spiritual leader of 1.4 billion Catholics wields, attracts the attention of the secular world as well.

“The whole world turns to Rome – non-Catholics, non-Christians, non-believers find this moment wonderful,” Barron said. “We evangelize through beauty.”

So, who will the next pope be?

There are betting odds on that, such as at Polymarket.com.

Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin, 70, was listed there as the favorite at 31 percent odds to become pope as the conclave opened.

Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, of Manila, sometimes called the “Asian Francis,” is listed at 19 percent.

Matteo Zuppi, 69, an Italian considered a Francis loyalist, is at 9 percent.

Patriarch of Jerusalem Pierbattista Pizzabella, 60, an Italian who has spent 20 years in the Holy Land, is listed at 9 percent.

Peter Turkson, 76, from Ghana is listed as the top African candidate at 8 percent.

Peter Erdo, 72, from Hungary, is listed at 5 percent. Jean-Marc Aveline, 66, of France is also listed at 5 percent.

After Turkson, other leading Africans among the possibilities are Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65, from the Congo, listed at 2 percent, and Robert Sarah, 79, from Guinea, at 2 percent.

Mario Grech, 68, of Malta, an island south of Sicily in the Mediterranean Sea, is listed at two percent chance to become pope.

A long list of others come in with one percent or less odds, but anything’s possible.

The last African pope was Pope Gelasius I, born in Rome but of North African origin, from 492 to 496 AD. There were three African popes in early church history; before Gelasius was Pope Victor I from 189-199 A.D., and Pope Miltiades from 311 to 314 A.D.

There has never been a pope from Asia or North America.

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