Comparing Auburn and Duke’s cases for the NCAA Tournament’s No. 1 overall seed
The college basketball regular season is over, and it didn’t quite end the way Auburn would have hoped.
The Tigers won the Southeastern Conference regular season title with a week to go, but that final week included two straight losses, finishing with a heartbreaking loss at the buzzer to bitter rivals Alabama.
Those losses meant Auburn finished 27-4, matching a program record for regular season wins. With the resume Auburn built, a one-seed in the NCAA Tournament is all but a guarantee and the No. 1 overall seed is still likely the Tigers’ to lose.
However, two losses to end the season could have cracked the door open ever so slightly for Duke, the likely new No. 1 when the AP poll is released Monday afternoon. The Blue Devils are 28-3 and hold a head-to-head win over Auburn.
Here’s a look at each team’s resume, where they’re currently projected to land in the tournament and the case for each to be the No. 1 overall seed.
Auburn’s resume
Overall record: 27-4
Conference record (SEC): 15-3
Quad I record: 16-4
Quad II record: 5-0
Quad III record: 2-0
Quad IV record: 4-0
Duke’s resume
Overall record: 28-3
Conference record (ACC): 19-1
Quad I record: 7-3
Quad II record: 7-0
Quad III record: 9-0
Quad IV record: 5-0
Who the bracketologists have as No. 1
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi: Auburn
CBS’ Jerry Palm: Duke
Fox’s Mike DeCourcy: Auburn
On3’s James Fletcher III: Auburn
Auburn’s case for the No. 1 overall seed
Auburn’s case for the top spot in the field boils down to its body of work, particularly against top teams.
The Tigers have played and won more Quad I games than any other team in the country, and the team with the next most wins is five behind. Auburn has the No. 2 strength of schedule in the country, per KenPom, only trailing Alabama.
Although Duke has the head-to-head win and a better overall record by one game, the Blue Devils’ resume hardly compares to Auburn. They’ve played in just 10 Quad I games, winning seven. That’s less than half as many Quad I wins as Auburn.
Duke’s strength of schedule ranks 59th and the ACC ranks fifth in KenPom’s conference ratings, almost 13 points behind the SEC, which ranks first. The ranking also puts the ACC last among the traditional high-major conferences.
While Duke has been dominant in a relatively weak conference, Auburn’s resume this season is simply second to none. On top of Auburn’s record against Quad I teams, the Tigers currently have 17 wins against teams currently projected in Lunardi’s field. Duke, by comparison, has four.
Duke’s case for the No. 1 overall seed
Given the difference in resumes, Duke’s case to be No. 1 isn’t as straightforward. However, there is still a case to be made.
The Blue Devils have been a model of consistency and efficiency in the second half of the season, albeit against a relatively weak schedule. Duke is No. 1 in KenPom’s efficiency ratings, leading Auburn by almost four points.
Duke’s adjusted efficiency margin (39.65) is on pace to finish as the highest since 1999, a 43.01 mark also held by the Blue Devils. They also currently top the NCAA’s NET rankings, EvanMiya’s team relative ratings and Bart Torvik’s T-rank.
Strength of schedule aside, no team has been as dominant in each game as Duke. Its 19 ACC wins came by an average of 23.1 points, and its one conference loss came on the road to Clemson, a team currently projected by ESPN to be a four-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Plus, Duke has the head-to-head win over Auburn, which you can argue should count for something. Duke can’t control how good its conference opponents are, but it did what it can control: Dominate each game.
Peter Rauterkus covers Auburn sports for AL.com. You can follow him on X at @peter_rauterkus or email him at prauterkus@al.com