Clemson vs. Texas predictions, picks and best bets for College Football Playoff
Get set for more College Football Playoff action when the Clemson Tigers travel to DKR-Memorial Stadium for a first-round playoff matchup Saturday with the Texas Longhorns.
The Longhorns are favored by as many as a dozen points, and the 52.5 total is the second-highest on the CFP odds board. Join me as I share my best college football predictions and best bets for Clemson vs. Texas.
RELATED: Check out our expert guide to College Football Playoff betting
Clemson vs. Texas predictions and best bets
- Texas -3.5 first quarter: -110 at DraftKings
- Clemson team total under 20.5: -135 at BetMGM
- Under 51.5: -106 at FanDuel
Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
Saturday marks the first-ever meeting between the Tigers and Longhorns.
Generally, I like to back the underdog in games between two highly competitive schools, but the Tigers’ offense can sometimes disappear in big games, and Texas is terrific out of the gate.
The Longhorns have raced past teams early and outscored their opponents 108-17 in the first 15 minutes. Clemson typically scores 10 first-quarter points, but Saturday might be a stretch.
The Tigers have scored only 51 points in their three games against nationally ranked opponents. Those woes could continue against a Longhorns defense that allowed only 97 points against the six nationally ranked opponents it faced.
Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik has been sacked 20 times, and the sacks forced him to scamper for at least 26 rushing yards in 10 of his last 11 games.
I expect Klubnik to tuck the ball and run enough to keep the Tigers in the game with his feet against the third-best defense nationally.
Clemson’s inability to score the football and the teams’ over/under records nearly demand we play the under. Clemson is 2-7-0 to the under across its past nine, while Texas boasts an over/under record of 2-7-1 to the under.
Clemson vs. Texas moneyline odds analysis
Why Texas could win as the favorite
Best odds: -455 at BetMGM Sportsbook
Texas should win as the favorite.
If not for facing Georgia twice, the Longhorns could be undefeated. The Bulldogs had their number, but no one else was able to beat the Longhorns.
Texas gets early leads and relies on one of the best defenses in the nation to do the rest. The Longhorns rank third nationally in total defense with the fewest yards allowed per play (4.0).
Clemson will have trouble scoring the football against a defense like that. This season, the Tigers faced three nationally ranked teams and combined for only 51 points. The Tigers were 1-2-0 against nationally ranked opponents.
Texas has defeated eight bowl-eligible opponents this season. If they slow the Tigers’ offense, expect a Longhorns offense averaging 41 points at home to score enough to win this game.
Why Clemson could win as the underdog
Best odds: +365 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Clemson needs a complete masterpiece in order to win as the underdog.
That starts with running Phil Mafah and continues with Klubnik. Clemson will need its defense to have its best game of the season.
Mafah went through a mid-season stretch where he scampered for at least 100 yards in four out of five games. He has failed to exceed more than 66 rushing yards in each of his last four, however.
They’ll need Mafah to succeed so Klubnik can. The junior quarterback has thrown multiple scoring strikes in four of his last five, and he’ll need to find the end zone with his arm.
Finally, Clemson must stop Texas QB Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns’ aerial attack. Clemson has 25 takeaways and meets a Longhorns offense with seven turnovers across its previous three.
It’s a tall order, but if Clemson can rush the football and get a turnover or two, they can win as the underdog.