The Houston Texans are three-point underdogs at home for the AFC Wild Card Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET. Houston won the AFC South but lost two straight games to top contenders before a meaningless win in the final week of the regular season.

Los Angeles rebounded from a last-place finish in 2023 to win 11 games. The Chargers finished the regular season on a three-game winning streak and will be aiming for their first postseason victory in six years.

Chargers vs. Texans predictions and best bets

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

The Chargers are road warriors, a key point that is apparently considered in the spread. Los Angeles won six road games during the regular season, including four of their last five games.

Defense will spur the Los Angeles victory and keep the projected score below the Under. The Chargers led the league in points per game allowed during the regular season, at a 17.7 clip. Both teams have shaky overall playmaking depth. Injuries have depleted the Houston WR crew, and beyond Ladd McConkey, the Chargers lack standout offensive performers.

The Texans lost two straight games, to Baltimore and Kansas City, before ending the regular season with an inconsequential win over the Titans. Houston was held to two points in the Week 17 loss to the Ravens. In his past five games, C.J. Stroud has not reached the 250- yard mark, while totaling only six TD passes over that span. Joe Mixon did not top 30 rushing yards in three of his last four games.

Stroud will have to feed Collins constantly, and he is an often unstoppable force even when the defense devotes a lot of attention to him. The Chargers ranked 24th in receiving yards allowed to WRs over the final four weeks of the regular season.

Chargers vs. Texans moneyline odds analysis

Why Los Angeles could win as the favorite

Best odds: -154 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Justin Herbert passed for 10 TDs and no interceptions in his last eight road games. He closed the regular season in solid fashion, passing for two-plus TDs in four straight games. Houston’s pass defense ranks sixth in the NFL, but I will bank on Herbert to make a timely play to win the game over Stroud.

McConkey will help Herbert move the ball well on critical drives. He ranked fourth among rookies with 82 catches and 1,149 rec. yards in 2024. Both marks were the best ever by a Chargers rookie.

J.K. Dobbins rushed for a career-high nine TDs. Los Angeles will certainly prevail if Quentin Johnston (check his status: thigh injury) and Will Dissly play effective complementary roles. Houston allowed 54 sacks, tied for the third-most during the regular season. The Chargers totaled 46 sacks, tied for sixth in the NFL.

Why the Texans could win as the underdog

Best odds: +130 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Being an underdog at home is the type of insult that can spur Houston to take up a collective rallying cry and perform well in front of the home crowd. The Texans won in the Wild Card round last year and DeMeco Ryans will have his team well prepared.

Getting Mixon rolling again will be a key. He was one of four AFC RBs with 1,000+ rush yards (1,016) and 10+ rush TDs (11) this season. He has totaled 582 scrimmage yards (83.1 per game) in seven career playoff games.

Collins is the offensive MVP. He had a TD catch in six of his past seven games at home, including the playoffs. Stroud passed for three TDs in last season’s Wild Card Game. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson teamed up for 23 sacks during the regular season. Houston tied for third in the league with 49 sacks.