Championship Week picks are in for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero
**Editor’s Note: Time to take the 6-0 Challenge and make your Championship Week picks against “Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero.” Joseph Goodman’s popular college football picks feature, “Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero,” is adding readers to the action this season. Pick your Championship Week games here, and sign up for Joe’s newsletter to see how your picks compare to the experts (and Joe) as well as other readers.
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Celebrated from coast to coast by sports fans, bag men, bartenders, mafia kings and mathematicians, Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero is the greatest resource for college football shenanigans on the internet. This is the 14th season for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero in its various forms.
This season, for the first time ever, readers are getting in on the action. Sign up for Joe’s newsletter, “Joe Goodman’s Sports Happy Hour,” to submit your picks each week and compare your wits against the experts (and Joe). The newsletter comes out every Thursday afternoon during the football season, so don’t procrastinate with your prognostications.
Joe subscribes to ol’ Billy Shakespeare’s philosophy of picking football games. “Jesters do oft prove prophets,” mused the Great Bard. What is Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero? Consider it a gift to society.
THE GRAND EXPERIMENT
Joseph Goodman is the lead sports columnist for AL.com. What happens when a sportswriter picks some of the toughest games of the week and goes head-to-head against a sharp and a football expert with a Harvard education? It’s a gift for college football fans every week in the state where college football is like a religion.
The Pro is Lee Sterling, a noted numbers man of national success. Sterling features his best picks on his website, ParamountSports.com, but The Pro fearlessly picks the most difficult college games of the week against Joe and the Hero. Joe is just a hack and a slacker who everyone loves to hate.
No one works harder than Hero Ben Abercrombie. Nobody. Ben played football at Hoover High School and Harvard, and he’s working every day to regain his ability to walk. He’s a student at Harvard, and an inspiration to all. To thank him, we want everyone to stand up for Ben and show him some love.
Show Joe no love at all. Besmirch his name at small dinner parties, and troll him on Twitter.
6-0 CHALLENGE
We only had two perfect entries for Rivalry Week, which feels like more proof that it was one of those epic weekends of college football. It feels like another is coming up, beginning with the championship games on Friday night. Congrats to Lee Baldwin and Chris Howell, our two college football geniuses of the week. Enjoy those glowing lights of glory and the neon lights of Costco that come with all those free samples.
Our total number of winners of the 6-0 Challenge this season is up to 44.
This week’s quiz question is all about the Heisman Trophy. Who’s going to win it? You get your say in next week’s newsletter. Sign up for the newsletter here.
Click the link here to make your picks for Championship Week of the 6-0 Challenge. We’re also embedding the picks this week in Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero to make it a little easier for everyone if clicking isn’t your thing.
LAST WEEK
Joe: 5-1 straight up, 6-0 against the spread
Pro: 5-1 straight up, 5-1 against the spread
Hero: 5-1 straight up, 2-4 against the spread
Notes: Joe nailed the 6-0 Challenge last week. Might be a sign of the apocalypse. Smooth-brained Joe will definitely be buying lottery tickets in Atlanta over the weekend.
THIS SEASON
Joe: 49-28 straight up, 33-42-2 against the spread
Pro: 52-26 straight up, 36-38-2 against the spread
Hero: 57-16 straight up, 41-34-2 against the spread
Notes: It’s a testament to how awful Joe is at picking games that he’s still nine games below .500 despite having a perfect week. Meanwhile, the Pro can salvage his season with a strong showing during Championship Week. On to the picks!
Pac-12 Conference Championship Game
No.5 Oregon (11-1, 8-1 Pac-12) vs. No.3 Washington (12-0, 9-0 Pac-12)
When: 7 p.m., Fri.
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
TV: ABC
Series: Washington leads 62-48-5.
Spread: Oregon by 9.5
Joe says: Washington won the match-up earlier this season, but the Ducks are heavy favorites in the rematch. Don’t look now but Bo Nix can make the College Football Playoff, keep Alabama out of the playoff and win the Heisman all with one game. Give credit to Nix but also Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein, who is a rising star in the profession. Stein was named co-offensive coordinator at UTSA in 2022 before making the jump to the Power 5. Washington’s offense is also unstoppable, so I fully expect this one to go down to the last possession. I’ll take Nix and his skilled wide receivers in this all-time matchup to close out the Pac-12 as we know it.
Joe’s pick: Oregon 45, Washington 42
Pro says: The story in college football last week was Alabama’s Fourth and 31 touchdown to pull out a miracle win with 32 seconds left in the Iron Bowl. While Georgia never trailed after early in the second quarter to Georgia Tech, the Bulldogs’ eight-point win wasn’t that impressive. The offensive and defensive lines of both teams seem about even but Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe’s improved play and ability to extend plays could be the difference here. Georgia has won 29-straight games, but Alabama has won seven of the last eight games in the series and Georgia should still probably make the playoff even with a close loss. Motivation matters here!
Pro’s pick: Alabama 27, Georgia 23
Hero says: The playoff committee has already decided that the winner of this game will be in the playoffs. Oregon quarterback Bo Nix gets one last opportunity to impress Heisman voters as well, but I think Bo’s primary focus will be on winning the last Pac-12 championship. As the point spread shows, Oregon has been dominant since losing to Washington on Oct. 14 and while the Huskies are still undefeated, they have had several close wins. Washington quarterback Michael Penix, Jr., and the Huskies’ talented receiving core will keep this game interesting but in the end, I think that the Ducks’ superior defense and rushing offense win the day.
Hero’s pick: Oregon 38, Washington 31
Southeastern Conference Championship Game
No.1 Georgia (12-0, 8-0 SEC) vs. No.8 Alabama (11-1, 8-0 SEC)
When: 3 p.m., Sat.
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
TV: CBS
Series: Alabama leads 42-26-4.
Spread: UGA by 6
Joe says: Alabama turned in another exceptional season after its slow start. The wins against Ole Miss, Texas A&M, LSU, Tennessee and Auburn will have this team prepared for its toughest test of the season, but that loss against Texas will be the motivation. Put all of the playoff scenarios aside. The Texas game was a shock, but credit Nick Saban, the coaching staff and Alabama’s players for learning from that embarrassment (and the trip to Tampa) and growing in the right direction. The SEC championship is a major prize even if Alabama can’t shoehorn its way into the playoff. Georgia has won everything at this point, but not an SEC title over the Crimson Tide. The Bulldogs won’t get it done here either. The struggle win/miracle against Auburn will have Alabama on edge and I like Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe in that situation.
Joe’s pick: Alabama 31, Georgia 30
Pro says: It’s crazy that the team that lost the first game between these two teams is now a 9.5-point favorite at a neutral site. In the first game, Oregon missed a field goal and also was unsuccessful on two fourth-down attempts. Since that game the Ducks have won each of the next six games by nine points or more while the Huskies have struggled to win each of the six games by two to 10 points. Bo Nix is red hot with 37 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. He seals the Heisman here with a blowout win.
Pro’s pick: Oregon 42, Washington 24
Hero says: The last game the Bulldogs lost was in the 2021 SEC Championship game to Alabama. Georgia will be motivated to avenge that loss, but Bama is one of the few teams with enough talent to compete with the Bulldogs. The Georgia offense will be tough to contain behind first-year starting quarterback Carson Beck, super tight end Brock Bowers and a nasty offensive line that opens huge holes for the running game. HOWEVER … with three projected NFL first-round picks on the Alabama defense (end Dallas Turner, cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Kool-Aid McKinstry) maybe they can make enough plays to keep the Tide in the game. The Bulldog defense may not be quite as dominant in past years, but they are still the best in the SEC. Bama quarterback Jalen Milroe does provide a dual-threat that should give the Dogs some problems. Georgia will lose a game eventually, so maybe the Tide can create some playoff chaos and take the ‘Dawgs down in Atlanta.
Hero’s pick: Alabama 31, Georgia 28
Sun Belt Conference Championship Game
Appalachian State (8-4, 6-2 Sun Belt) at Troy (10-2, 7-1 Sun Belt)
When: 3 p.m., Sat.
Where: Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, Ala.
TV: ESPN
Series: Appalachian State leads 8-3.
Spread: Troy by 6.5
Joe says: I’m so happy for Troy, which should be in position next season to challenge for the title of best team in the Group of 5. It would be amazing to see the Trojans be the first Group of 5 team in the College Football Playoff. Let’s not look ahead, though. Appy State has won five straight against Troy in the head-to-head series, but Troy won the Sun Belt title in 2022. Really this game is going to come down to the Trojans’ defense stopping Mountaineers quarterback Joey Aquilar and I like Troy at home in that scenario.
Joe’s pick: Troy 35, Appalachian State 33
Pro says: By beating undefeated James Madison two weeks ago most college football observers feel the Mountaineers are a worthy opponent for Sun Belt regular season champion Troy. App State lost this season to bottom-feeder East Carolina and mediocre Old Dominion (not to mention Coastal Carolina). Troy’s defense hasn’t given up more than 24 points since Week One, and quarterback Gunnar Nelson has opened up the offense this season with 26 touchdown passes. App State won last year on a 53-yard Hail Mary pass. Payback! Payback! Payback!
Pro’s pick: Troy 31, Appalachian State 21
Hero says: Both teams finished the regular season strong with Troy winning nine in a row and App State five in a row with one of the wins over James Madison on the road. The Mountaineers are led by their Top 20 offense while the Trojans feature a Top 10 defense. The Troy offense led by senior quarterback Gunnar Watson and junior running back Kimani Vidal have generated 30 points per game so I think they can generate enough offense against the App State defense to outscore the Mountaineers at home and win a Sun Belt Championship.
Hero’s pick: Troy 34, Appalachian State 27
Big 12 Conference Championship Game
No.18 Oklahoma State (9-3, 7-2 Big 12) vs. No.7 Texas (11-1, 8-1 Big 12)
When: 11 a.m., Sat.
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
TV: ABC
Series: Texas leads 26-11.
Spread: Texas by 14.5
Joe says: Texas had three struggle wins in a row (TCU, Iowa State and Texas Tech) before blowing out Texas Tech last week. The Longhorns are probably on the outside looking in at the playoffs just like Alabama, but winning the final Big 12 title will be a major deal. I like Texas’ rushing attack here, and Oklahoma State’s defense gives me no confidence after that 45-3 loss to Central Florida. Hook’em.
Joe’s pick: Texas 38, Oklahoma State 28
Pro says: The Cowboys have won the last two games in the series 32-24 in Austin and 41-34 last year in Stillwater. Oklahoma State barely made the Big 12 championship game limping in beating non-bowl teams Houston and BYU while giving up a combined 64 points the last two weeks. Oklahoma State came back from two touchdown deficits in each of the last two weeks. If they fall behind by two touchdowns here they’ll probably lose by four touchdowns. Blowout City!
Pro’s pick: Texas 45, Oklahoma State 16
Hero says: Oklahoma State under coach Mike Gundy is known for big comeback wins and they scored 14 points in the fourth quarter last year to beat the Longhorns in the regular season. I don’t think Texas and coach Steve Sarkisian have forgotten about that painful defeat. The Cowboys should put up a good fight, but the Longhorns have the better team. A strong Texas defense should be able to hold the lead this year to earn the Longhorns a Big-12 championship in their final year in the conference. If the Longhorns make the playoffs, they will not be an easy out.
Hero’s pick: Texas 34, Oklahoma State 24
Big Ten Championship Game
No.2 Michigan (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten) vs. No.16 Iowa (10-2, 7-2 Big Ten)
When: 7 p.m., Sat.
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
TV: Fox
Series: Michigan leads 44-15-4.
Spread: Michigan by 23
Joe says: I have no qualms revealing that I’ll be rooting for ultimate-underdog Iowa in the Big Ten title game. Iowa can keep this one much closer than expected, but only a hopeless romantic like me would actually pick the Hawkeyes. Iowa has a great defense, but the Wolverines put the clamps on Ohio State and sucked the life out of the Buckeyes in the fourth quarter. I wouldn’t be surprised if Michigan kept Iowa out of the end zone the entire game. Expect safeties!
Joe’s pick: Michigan 12, Iowa 7
Pro says: There have been eight Power Five conference championship games where the line was minus-21 or higher and the favorites went 7-1 against the spread in those games. If Iowa wants to cover this spread, I feel they’ll have to score at least seven and maybe as much as 10 points. Iowa scored only 18 points per game this season while averaging just 247.3 yards per game. No team until this season that has averaged less than 250 yards per game over the course of a season has won more than four games. Iowa has won 10. They won’t win this game and I don’t see them covering the spread unless they score on special teams.
Pro’s pick: Michigan 29, Iowa 3
Hero says: I don’t expect much excitement in this Big Ten championship game. The Michigan defense gives up 10 points per game and the Iowa offense averages 18 points a game to rank No.121 in NCAA scoring offense. Iowa does feature an outstanding defense that only gives up 12 points per game, however, I expect that running back Blake Corum and the Michigan offense will eventually wear down the Hawkeyes’ defense to pull away in the second half of an easy victory.
Hero’s pick: Michigan 35, Iowa 0
Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game
No.14 Louisville (10-2, 7-1 ACC) vs. No.4 FSU (12-0, 8-0 ACC)
When: 7 p.m., Sat.
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.
TV: ABC
Series: FSU leads 17-6.
Spread: FSU by 2.5
Joe says: Let’s get this out of the way first. FSU shouldn’t be punished by the College Football Playoff committee because of the injury to quarterback Jordan Travis. If FSU loses to Louisville, then that’s a different story altogether. Louisville was a sneaky great team all season and loss to rival Kentucky last week should only resharpen the Cards’ focus. The Noles defense might be the best in the country, though, and that unit will be lights out for this game with everything on the line. FSU hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game all season. Louisville won’t break that number.
Joe’s pick: FSU 27, Louisville 24
Pro says: The Seminoles would be my choice if they had quarterback Jordan Travis under center because his ability to extend plays turned the Florida State offense from ordinary into special. Last week they only had 224 total offensive yards and were dominated for three quarters by a poor Florida team until they rallied late. The last two times Louisville turned the ball over three times they beat Notre Dame 33-20 and Duke 23-0 in their next game. Wrong team favored!
Pro’s pick: Louisville 30, Florida State 24
Hero says: The Seminoles will be highly motivated to win for injured quarterback Jordan Travis and hopefully make the College Football Playoff. The Cardinals, under first year coach Jeff Brohm, have had a great season but they were upset by in-state rival Kentucky last Saturday. Louisville has had some impressive wins this season, including a victory over Notre Dame and will present FSU with a major challenge. The Seminoles will have to lean on their athletic defense and strong running game led by Trey Benson to beat the Cardinals. Louisville does have a big experience edge at quarterback in this game so look for senior quarterback Jack Plummer to lead the Cardinals on a fourth quarter drive to win the ACC championship.
Hero’s pick: Louisville 31, FSU 27