Casagrande: Wacky SEC title race set for six good but not elite teams

Casagrande: Wacky SEC title race set for six good but not elite teams

This is an opinion column.

The SEC … who can figure it?

With a week and a half left in the men’s basketball season, six teams are in play to win the regular-season title. Each has three games to play before the league tournament bracket is complete and one truth has emerged.

There are a bunch of good teams.

But is anyone great? Like national title contender level?

Honestly, no.

But the road to Nashville has been a ride on the Grateful Dead tour bus. Casey Jones is driving that train.

And we’re all in for quite a trip with three games left for everyone in play.

Of those six, Alabama and Auburn figure into this equation once again. This is just a different kind of title chase a year after the Crimson Tide romped to the regular-season title with a 16-2 record. Only Texas A&M (15-3) had fewer than six league losses.

The permutations this time are numerous with Tennessee’s Saturday visit to Tuscaloosa figuring to set the tone for the final sprint to the finish.

The Crimson Tide (20-8, 12-3 SEC) are just as wacky as any in this chase. After taking a 117-95 beating at Kentucky and falling behind 37-23 on Wednesday at Ole Miss, the reigning champs woke up. A 64-point second half turned this one into what would look like a comfortable 103-88 road win.

Alabama’s a special kind of anomaly.

It has the nation’s top scoring offense that also tops the offensive efficiency ratings. But, again, it allowed one hundred and seventeen points just days ago at a Kentucky team fresh off a loss to LSU. For the stat nerds, Alabama’s 99th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings — just ahead of USC (11-16).

A year ago, the Crimson Tide team that was the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament was No. 2 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. The long-armed rim protectors that set that group apart are all in the pros this season so Alabama’s leaned on its explosive offense in an all-or-nothing journey.

This is a team tied for the league lead while its average margin in the three SEC losses sits right at 20.0 points a game.

Tennessee handed the Tide one of those ugly losses, a 91-71 final in Knoxville back on Jan. 20. The Vols won its fifth straight Wednesday night, 92-84 while taking Auburn’s best shot. Rick Barnes’s team is the hottest among the contenders but faces three other contenders to close the season — two on the road.

Alabama closes with a road trip to Florida and a visit from the SEC’s biggest disappointment. Arkansas is limping to the finish line with a 14-14 overall record and 5-10 in SEC play.

Auburn (21-7, 10-5) was the hottest team in the league after beating Alabama by 18 and South Carolina by 40 in the span of a week. The Tigers have lost three of its last five games with an 81-65 dud at Florida sandwiched between those blowouts, then an ugly 70-59 loss to Kentucky that ended a year-long home-court winning streak.

Auburn at home was the one reliable truth until it wasn’t.

The Tigers, however, have a more favorable final stretch after running the gauntlet already. KenPom gives Auburn no worse than an 82% shot at victory in each of those final three games against Mississippi State (19-9, 8-7), at Missouri (8-20, 0-15) and Georgia (15-13, 5-10).

Each of South Carolina’s final three opponents is ranked in the top 30 of the NET rankings.

Kentucky plays two of the bottom three teams in the SEC standings before closing with Tennessee in Knoxville. This is a Wildcat team that lost four of six games in late January and early February only to bash Alabama’s head in Saturday and win on a buzzer beater Tuesday at Mississippi State.

Seriously, this thing could come down to next Saturday with any number of these dogs in the hunt.

What a long, strange trip it’s been.

And it can only get messier from here because where there was trouble behind, the same lies ahead.

Michael Casagrande is a reporter for the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @ByCasagrande or on Facebook.