Casagrande: The great Auburn recruiting gamble. Will it pay off?
This is an opinion column.
Fascinating times, indeed.
Here we are, a week away from SEC Media Days, the dawn of a new football season. Let the speculation begin!
For now, we’re talking about the even more distant future as recruiting news robs much of the oxygen.
And it’s the trend lines that are so … fascinating.
Alabama’s been on a recent tear with several five-star commitments. It currently has four (according to the 247Sports composite) or five (according to On3).
Either way, the Crimson Tide has more of the highest-ranked recruits than anyone in the nation and a class that ranks No. 5 according to both services.
Auburn is either No. 86 (247Sports) or No. 80 (On3).
The Tigers have just seven commits compared to Alabama’s 19. None of the other top 100 teams has fewer than eight pledges as of July 7.
Again, Auburn has seven.
That’s an outlier. A statistical anomaly that hasn’t gone unnoticed.
This is an Auburn program that, despite stagnant on-field momentum, has a recruiting tailwind. It signed the No. 8 class in the 247Sports composite last year as it dominated the roll tide rival with in-state talent.
Now it’s sandwiched between Texas State and San Jose State in the national rankings.
The Tigers are a distant 16th among the 16 SEC teams as none of their peers have fewer than 10 commits. Vanderbilt has 16. Now, they’re a very-Vanderbilt band consisting entirely of 3-star prospects, but they more than double Auburn’s seven.
What are we missing?
The situation — or at least the public perception of it — is dire enough to warrant a comment from Auburn athletics director John Cohen.
This is notable since Cohen isn’t the first to jump in front of microphones and cameras but he did just that last Wednesday at an event for donors in Alexander City.
His message: Wait for Aug. 1.
That’s the first day a 2026 recruit can receive a written scholarship offer that includes a revenue-sharing number.
“There are some real things that are about to take place,” Cohen told reporters Wednesday in Alexander City after describing a hypothetical scenario where a recruit receives a monetary offer higher than what a current starter is receiving.
Like Freeze’s comments from the same event, there were heavy implications of impropriety elsewhere.
“There are some really new things on the horizon that have never happened before,” Cohen continued. “And I’m here to tell you we’re going to do this the right way. We’re going to do it just like Coach Freeze just mentioned. We’re going to be honest. We’re going to be forthright and we’re looking very much forward to August the first and dates beyond.”
Neither Cohen, nor Freeze specifically said what they were doing that was right or what others were allegedly doing wrong.
The numbers behind the situation suggest that Auburn is taking this path alone. They’re currently outside any pattern or strategy that’s visible through oral commitments from rising high school seniors.
It’s also worth noting that Cohen is putting his name and reputation on the line by being so outspoken and breaking a pattern of operating outside the media landscape.
There’s certainly a united front behind this Auburn approach to Year 1 of the revenue-sharing era.
Still, Cohen was asked last Wednesday about the possibility that they’re taking the wrong approach and their peers who are lapping them in recruiting are right.
“Yeah, we’re going to cross that mountain when we get there,” Cohen said while saying any third-party NIL offer has to count against the revenue-sharing cap of $21.5 million.
“Let me illustrate,” he continued. “You have an $800,000 offer and school says we’re going to give you $400,000 in rev share. And we’re going to give you $400,000 through a third party. I’m not 100% sure that everybody in this country is operating under that premise. Which is reality.”
Interesting.
So we can set our watches for Aug. 1 to see if the world burns or if Auburn remains on its recruiting desert island.
One thing’s clear: The Tigers have pushed their chips to the center of this poker table with a rules interpretation that clearly differs from the pack.
No doubt an interesting time to be the most conservative recruiter on the block when trying to end a streak of four straight seven-loss seasons.
But here we are.
A fascinating time, indeed.
Michael Casagrande is a reporter for the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @ByCasagrande or on Facebook.
If you purchase a product or register for an account through a link on our site, we may receive compensation. By using this site, you consent to our User Agreement and agree that your clicks, interactions, and personal information may be collected, recorded, and/or stored by us and social media and other third-party partners in accordance with our Privacy Policy.