Casagrande: A new era in the NFL draft
This is an opinion column.
In NFL draft terminology, the modern era began in 1967. Most stats were noted like BC and AD on the timeline to note the shift in the sport around the AFL/NFL merger.
It might be time to brand another era, not Taylor’s version, but one that signifies the major shifts in who’s involved in these drafts.
“With the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears select Caleb Williams, quarterback, Southern California.”
In that moment you saw the old and new worlds collide.
The former USC quarterback was the first of nine players taken in Thursday night’s first round who took a transfer portal detour.
In fact, five of the first 15 were former transfers and the nine total appears to be the most of this portal years. There were five first-rounders last year and three in 2021.
Zooming out, 121 of the 398 NFL combine invitees played at multiple schools, according to the Associated Press.
Williams, the No. 1 pick, is also an underclassman in the draft, more of a rarity as this ultra-modern phase gives and takes from the college game.
Thanks to NIL, a sharp drop in early entrants broke the line graph tracking this kind of thing. Only 58 total left early, the fewest in 13 years and down from the 130 who declared in 2021 in the last pre-NIL draft.
That’s a good thing for the college game since fewer players who are foolishly chasing NFL money. They don’t have to take that gamble to make more than $0 for their talents so for all the NIL haters, here’s a reason to reconsider. After the 32-pick first round, 15 of those 58 early exits were drafted.
Of course that decrease in departures didn’t do much to keep Alabama’s roster intact.
It had four of those 58 early exits — three of which heard their name called Thursday night with Kool-Aid McKinstry sure to go early Friday night.
None of those three were transfer guys, ending a two-year streak where Alabama had first-round picks from players on their second school. Jameson Williams (2022) and Jahmyr Gibbs (2023) were coincidently both picked 12th overall by the Detroit Lions in consecutive years.
This year, Jermaine Burton would appear to be the top transfer prospect from Alabama and he’s a second- or third-day guy.
Auburn, meanwhile, had its third first-round pick in the past decade if you get creative with counting portal guys. Bo Nix, the most Auburn of Auburn legacies before the whole Bryan Harsin mistake, completed his development in the least Auburn place possible to become the No. 12 pick.
The new Denver Bronco played the last two seasons at Oregon was the sixth quarterback drafted. Four of them were transfer players.
The exception to the new world order is Quinyon Mitchell, a cornerback from Toledo who stayed at Toledo. A second-team All-American in 2022, the No. 22 pick to the Philadelphia Eagles checked every box for a portal payday. Don’t take it from me, though.
“He was our No. 1 guy in the portal last year to try to come out of the portal,” Nick Saban said on the ABC set, “and he would never got into the portal.”
A few of the biggest names in the portal, however, were a long way from the first round Thursday.
Sam Hartman, the highest-rated draft-eligible transfer in On3′s portal ranking, had a promising start at Notre Dame but never sniffed a first-round selection. Each of the top three in the 2022 portal rankings were first-round picks including Caleb Williams. The USC quarterback followed his coach Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma to Los Angeles.
The dots weren’t as clearly connected when Michael Penix went from Indiana to Washington but the third quarterback drafted had a reunion with his old Hoosier offensive coordinator in Seattle. That, of course, was Kalen DeBoer.
The new Alabama coach finished Thursday with the same number of first-round draft picks as Nick Saban, each with three. DeBoer had two in the top 10 from his Washington tenure with Penix and receiver Rome Odunze before lineman Troy Fautanu went 20th overall.
Alabama did it the old-fashioned way with its three underclassmen who never transferred. JC Latham (7th to Tennessee), Dallas Turner (17th to Minnesota) and Terrion Arnold (24th to Detroit).
From the nine transfers to the decreasing underclassmen exits, the makeup of the NFL draft is shifting. That’s before we mention each of the first 14 picks Thursday were offensive players — a storyline more easily followed, but when you look deeper at the 2024 NFL draft, you’ll see a new era is dawning.
And, for a change, NIL isn’t an honorary four-letter word for in college football circles.
Michael Casagrande is a reporter for the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @ByCasagrande or on Facebook.