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Can the Texans extend their winning record on the back of MVP-contention performances from rookie C.J. Stroud? Houston hosts the lowly Arizona Cardinals in Week 11 looking to move to 6-4 and cement their hold on second spot in the AFC South while keeping up the pressure on the division-leading Jacksonville Jaguars.

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NFL Week 11 Cardinals vs. Texans odds preview

The Texans are intriguing visitors on Sunday lunchtime. They’re supposed to be in a rebuilding year under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans but they find themselves sitting second in the AFC South within spitting distance of the Jaguars, and boasting one of football’s greatest quarterbacks right now to boot.

In Week 9, Stroud blew everyone away with a rookie-record 470 yards for five TDs. In Week 10, the stats weren’t quite as stunning, but he still hit 23 of 39 throws for 356 yards and a TD. He’s making just about the strongest case it’s possible to make for Offensive Rookie of the Year; Stroud sits second in the league with 2,626 passing yards and has thrown 15 touchdowns and only two interceptions.

Meanwhile, their opponents this week, the 2-8 Arizona Cardinals, beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 10 for their second W of the year.

More significantly, that victory not only snapped a six-game losing streak but heralded the return of Kyler Murray after the long recovery from his ACL injury. The lift that Murray’s speed and playmaking give Arizona was clear for all to see and the fact he led Arizona to a rut-ending win in his season debut offers hope.

Kickoff at NRG Stadium in Houston is at noon CT live on CBS.

We went 4-4 on Texans picks last week as they beat the Bengals thanks to another stunning Stroud show. No guarantees that’ll happen again, but here are some picks to consider:

NFL Week 11 Cardinals vs. Texans best bet: Texans -4.5 (-115 or better)

It’s the NFL’s second-best passing attack against the second-worst here, and although the Cardinals may keep it tighter than their 2-8 record suggests, we’re backing the Texans to be too strong. Murray’s return has kickstarted Arizona but Stroud has already beaten Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow in his last two outings and is likely to come out on top again here.

Houston may not have typically fared well as a sportsbooks’ favorite, going 0-6 in the last six games with the odds in its favour, but the Texans are 5-2 ATS over their last seven games and now face a Cardinals team that stinks on the road, at 0-5 straight up and 1-4 ATS outside of Arizona. It might not be scintillating, but Houston has enough to cover.

NFL Week 11 Cardinals vs. Texans best bet: Under 49 (-110 or better)

The total is set pretty high for this one and you can understand why, given that the Cardinals are shipping points freely and the Texans are in an attacking groove.

But this season in Houston, the Texans and their opponents have averaged a total of 40.9 points per contest, while Cardinals away games have averaged 42.2, both of which are around a touchdown fewer than the over/under here. It’s hard to predict exactly how Arizona’s offense will fare with this just the second game with Murray back under center, but we think the Texans will win a relatively low-scorer.

NFL Week 11 Cardinals vs. Texans player prop: Stroud over 262.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Never mind Offensive Rookie of the Year, how about genuine candidacy for MVP? Stroud has been utterly remarkable this season, putting up 2,626 yards (second in the NFL), 15 touchdowns (ninth in the NFL), and 291.8 yards per game with a 61.6% completion rate through nine games so far in his rookie year. Under offensive coordinator Bobby Slowick, Stroud has built the offensive unit of a middling, inconsistent team into the second-best passing attack in the league.

It’s getting hard to imagine Stroud not having a big day, at this point. After yet another game-winning drive in the Week 10 victory over the Bengals, Stroud has a nice matchup against an Arizona secondary that is allowing a 101.0 passer rating (31st) and a 69.1% completion percentage (28th) to opposing quarterbacks this season. Most sportsbooks have Stroud’s total set at 267.5, but you can get it five yards shorter at FanDuel.

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