Can Alabama expect warmer weather in February? Here’s the forecast for the last month of winter
Saturday marks the first day of February 2025. Could the last month of winter bring back the very cold temperatures of January?
Forecasters were leaning toward an answer of “no” as of Saturday. In fact, February on the whole could end up being warmer than average.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues longer-range temperature and precipitation outlooks for the nation.
Forecasters have a monthly outlook for February, which was updated on Friday. It suggests that Alabama will have higher probabilities of above-average (for February) temperatures this month. (That outlook is at the top of this post.)
The southeast corner of Alabama has the highest probabilities of above-average February temperatures — 60-70 percent, according to the CPC.
A majority of the rest of the state doesn’t fare too badly either, with 50-60 percent odds of above-average temperatures.
The northwest corner of the state has 40-50 percent odds.
The warmer-than-average temperature outlook doesn’t guarantee a month full of balmy weather. It’s only a forecast, after all, and there could be some really cold days mixed in.
The precipitation outlook for the month isn’t as decisive, suggesting the majority of the state will have equal chances of either above-average or below-average precipitation over the month.
The exception is the northwest corner of the state, which has a 33-40 percent probability of above-average precipitation:
Most of Alabama has equal probabilities of above-average or below-average precipitation this month.CPC
But back to temperatures. If you look at the shorter-range outlooks, they all point to above-average temperatures as well through the next month.
The National Weather Service is forecasting an upcoming week that will feel more like spring than winter, with high temperatures each day mostly in the 60s and 70s statewide.
The warmest days could be around midweek, when parts of southern Alabama could see their first 80s of 2025. Here’s the high temperature forecast for Wednesday:
Next Wednesday could be the warmest day of 2025 so far in parts of Alabama. Some spots could hit the 80s for the first time.National Weather Service
The warm weather could hang around into mid-February as well.
The CPC’s eight- to 14-day temperature outlook also shows a higher probability of above-average temperatures through the middle of the month:
All of Alabama has increased probabilities of above-average temperatures from Feb. 8-14.CPC
The Week 3-4 temperature outlook also shows a decent chance of warmer-than-average temperatures from mid-February through the end of the month:
Alabama could have continued higher probabilities for above-average temperatures from mid-February through the end of the short month.CPC
Are these forecasts a sure thing? No way, but they also give a glimpse into climate trends expected over the next few weeks.
February marks the final month of the winter of 2024-2025. Meteorological spring begins on March 1.