This is an opinion column

The 2024 election cycle is heating up, and the balance of power in the United States Senate is once again up for grabs. Republicans have the most favorable cycle they’ve had in years with 19 Democrats and four independents up for reelection compared to just 11 Republican-held seats. A GOP Senate majority depends on careful strategy, solid candidates, and speaking to the issues currently resonating with voters across the political spectrum.

U.S. Senator Katie Britt has been working as hard as anyone to put the Senate in Republican hands, so I asked her to provide insight into what Republicans need to do to secure these crucial victories. She gave me a few campaign pointers that the GOP must hammer home to be successful down ticket.

Address the Economic Reality: “The top issues on voters’ minds are the economy and border security. The Biden-Harris administration has delivered high prices and lower real wages. Every conversation we have with voters should make clear that we understand their challenges and have solutions to make life more affordable and the American Dream more attainable for hardworking families.”

Localize the Race: “National politics often feels disconnected from what’s happening at our kitchen tables, in our communities, and on our Main Streets. Our candidates need to show they understand the nexus between local issues and federal policies — whether that’s agriculture in Montana, industry in Ohio, or fracking in Pennsylvania. Individual candidates need to run individualized races. We can’t take a one-size-fits-all approach. At the same time, the Biden-Harris Administration’s job approval rating is under water in every single competitive state. It’s important that Democrat Senate candidates, particularly incumbents, own this failed record and defend their support of the unpopular policies that have hurt American families since January 2021.”

Bring Back the Big Tent: “Winning elections – and successfully governing – necessitates addition, not subtraction. We have to bring in new voters while staying true to our principles. Building a governing Senate majority means reaching out to communities who may not traditionally vote Republican (or vote at all) but share our values on the importance of faith, family, and freedom – hardworking people who know we need change in Washington to restore prosperity, security, and safety across America. It’s not about changing who we are — it’s about showing how our policies are commonsense solutions that will improve their lives and brighten their futures.”

Relentless Ground Game: “Winning competitive states requires a robust ground game. We can’t just rely on television ads, interviews, and debates. Our volunteers and local leaders need to be knocking on doors, attending community events, and combining old-school grassroots with modern digital strategies. People need to know that our candidates are there for them — not just at election time but all the time.”

To give voters a sense of which races are must-wins for a GOP majority, I ranked the races in terms of necessity to a GOP Senate majority. I also offer some thoughts on the race, and Britt provides her take as well.

1. Texas: Keeping the Lone Star State Republican – Building a Senate majority requires Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) winning reelection. Thankfully for Cruz, Texas has been reliably Republican for decades. Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL player and civil rights lawyer, is a formidable opponent even if the pickup is a long-shot for Democrats. If Democrats defeat Cruz, Trump and Republicans are in trouble across the nation.

Britt’s Take: “Ted Cruz has become a true friend to me in the Senate and is a tremendous fighter for the people of Texas. Democrats are pouring out-of-state money into this race because they know the Senate majority is slipping out of their reach. We can’t take this race for granted, which is why I am working hard to raise money for Ted. As long as he has the resources to get his message out, he will win this race by showing he can deliver bipartisan wins for his state while standing up strongly for the conservative values the majority of Texans support.”

2. Montana: The Majority-Maker – With Republicans likely to pick up the West Virginia seat vacated by Sen. Joe. Manchin (I-WV), Montana becomes the majority-maker. Democratic Senator Jon Tester must defend his seat in a state that has consistently voted for Republican presidential candidates. The GOP fields businessman Tim Sheehy who currently leads Tester in polling. This will be a bellwether race on election night.

Britt’s Take: “Montana voters respect authenticity and independence, but they also want policies that align with their values and a Senator who puts their state over their party. We need to demonstrate that Jon Tester’s loyal support for the Biden agenda has come at the expense of Montana’s agricultural communities and hardworking families. Focusing on economic, energy, and agricultural issues will be key.”

3. Ohio: A Populist Competition in the Buckeye State – Over the last few cycles, Ohio has trended Republican. The Cook Political Report ranked the state as R+6 in 2022. Incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has campaigned as an economic populist who champions working class Ohioans. Republicans have put forth Trump-backed businessman Bernie Moreno. Moreno has been keeping his campaign funds for a push at the end of the race, so Brown has owned the airwaves for the last several months. We’ll see how that strategy plays out.

Britt’s Take: “There is a big difference between the fictitious Sherrod Brown in his own campaign ads and the real-life Sherrod Brown that consistently votes against the interests and values of working-class Ohio voters. Just like in Montana, President Trump is set to win Ohio by a wide margin. And Sherrod Brown has been in lockstep with the disastrous Biden-Harris policies that Ohio voters are going to reject at the top of the ticket. We need to highlight how a Bernie Moreno victory will better deliver for the hardworking families of Ohio — from achieving energy dominance and combating the fentanyl crisis to onshoring industry and growing both American jobs and American wages. Our message needs to be clear: the people of Ohio can help deliver a Republican Senate majority, which will fight for the policies they overwhelmingly support.”

4. Michigan: Campaign Funds May Make the Difference – Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) is attempting to defeat Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) for an open Senate seat in a state that has not elected a Republican to the upper chamber in 30 years. The problem for Rogers is that his $5.3 million in campaign fundraising pales in comparison to Slotkin’s $24.1 million. In a true swing state, the cash differential is a major advantage.

Britt’s Take: “Mike Rogers is a tremendously well-respected former congressman and law enforcement officer who appeals to the kind of big-tent coalition you need to win states like Michigan. His opponent has enjoyed a significant funding advantage, but the people of Michigan ultimately support the sensible policies that Mike supports. Whether it’s Democrats’ support for radical EV mandates or the chaos their weak foreign policy has unleashed in the Middle East, Republicans have an advantage when it comes to the unique issue set of this election cycle. This race will come down to whether Mike has the resources to prosecute his case.”

5. Pennsylvania: Republicans bring a better challenger – Republican David McCormick faces off against Democratic Senator Bob Casey. McCormick, a hedge fund CEO, lost to Dr. Mehmet Oz in Oz’s failed 2022 Senate bid, but he’s back against Casey. McCormick’s campaign has been better than Oz’s, but Casey remains popular in Pennsylvania. To be successful, McCormick needs to dominate rural Pennsylvania and win enough suburban support to offset Casey’s base vote from Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

Britt’s Take: “Dave McCormick is an excellent candidate and will be a champion for the people of Pennsylvania in the U.S. Senate. Pennsylvanians are deeply concerned about inflation, energy prices, and job security, both within the energy industry and in manufacturing sectors. Republicans need to articulate a clear economic vision that resonates with hardworking families, while tying Senator Casey to Vice President Harris’ radical record of opposition to fracking. We need to show that Republican policies will bring back good-paying jobs and keep costs down.”

6. Wisconsin: A Swing State Battleground – Wisconsin, a true swing state, will once again host a competitive Senate race as Republicans look to challenge incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin with banking executive Eric Hovde. Baldwin’s strength lies in her ability to appeal across the aisle, but Wisconsin’s electorate has shown itself to be evenly split in recent elections.

Britt’s Take: “Polls are showing that this race is neck-and-neck, and Eric Hovde has the momentum. Wisconsin is all about turning out the base while winning over independents who value commonsense policies – the very policies Republicans are fighting for when it comes to the economy, border security, and public safety. Meeting people where they are and addressing their concerns directly will make the difference.”

7. Nevada: GOP needs to make up ground – Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen faces a strong Republican challenger in veteran and Purple Heart recipient Sam Brown. Rosen will benefit from the state’s recent Democratic lean, but the race remains competitive due to concerns over the economy, particularly among working-class voters and Latino communities. Like Rogers in Michigan, Brown must overcome being outraised by more than $22 million.

Britt’s Take: “Sam Brown has an incredible story of sacrifice and service, and he’d be a wonderful Senator for the people of Nevada. In this race, we need to focus on economic opportunities, especially for Nevada’s working class. They want leadership that respects their work ethic and provides pathways to prosperity. Republicans must work to build authentic connections and speak directly to these voters’ everyday challenges.”

8. Maryland: A Competitive Candidate Gives Republicans a Chance – Former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan is about the best candidate Republicans could run in a Democratic stronghold like Maryland. Hogan supports abortion rights and has effectively distanced himself from Trump. His opponent, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, is a formidable challenger. This pickup is about as much of a stretch for Republicans as Texas is for Democrats but it’s not out of the question.

Britt’s Take: “Governor Hogan knows his state and enjoys a high approval rating across the aisle. If any Republican can win in this blue state, it’s him.”

The presidential race remains too close to call. If Republicans are able to take control of the Senate, they have the ability to check a potential Harris/Walz administration. With several toss-up seats on the line, the outcomes will depend heavily on how well Republican candidates communicate their message and connect with voters independent of the Trump campaign. There are plenty of opportunities for Republicans down the home stretch to November, but voters must decide whether they’re willing to be the volunteers and local leaders the GOP needs to make it happen.

Smith is a recovering political attorney with four boys, two dogs, a bearded dragon, and an extremely patient wife. He’s a partner in a media company, a business strategy wonk, and a regular on talk radio. Please direct outrage or agreement to [email protected] or @DCameronSmith on X or @davidcameronsmith on Threads.