The Denver Broncos bring a four-game winning streak to SoFi Stadium for an AFC West matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers. A victory or a tie clinches a playoff spot for Denver, which is a 2.5-point road underdog at most sportsbooks. The over-under is set at between 41 and 41.5. Let’s get into my Broncos vs. Chargers predictions and best bets for Thursday Night Football.

Broncos vs. Chargers predictions and best bets for Week 16

• Courtland Sutton Over 5.5 receptions: +120 at DraftKings
• Cortland Sutton Over 62.5 receiving yards: -113 at FanDuel
• Broncos ML: +130 at Caesars

The Denver Broncos roll into Tinseltown with a rookie quarterback and a defense that ranks No. 1 in the NFL in points allowed (17.8). Denver has ridden its defense to a four-game winning streak behind a defense that ranks first in sacks (49), while allowing only 98 rushing yards per game and fewer than 19 points in four of its previous five.

The Chargers added 17 points or fewer to the scoreboard in four of its last five, and a hobbled Justin Herbert and a ground game featuring Gus Edwards will find it tough to score, and why I believe the Broncos can pull off the upset.

Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has been outstanding this season. He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in seven of his 14 games; his favorite target is wideout Courtland Sutton.

The Nix-Sutton aerial combo has accounted for 878 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Sutton has caught an average of six of nine targets across his previous five games and will face a Chargers’ passing defense that surrenders 11.1 yards per completion at SoFi Stadium.

Denver is 4-1-0 as a road underdog this season. The Broncos lost to LA by seven in October in Denver, but this is a different Broncos group. The Nix to Sutton combo and an improving Denver defense will be good enough to sneak past a hobbled Chargers side.

Broncos vs Chargers moneyline odds analysis

Why Chargers could win as the favorite

Best odds: -143 at BetMGM Sportsbook

The Chargers’ ability to stop Box Nix and the Broncos’ offense is why LA can win as the favorite. LA may not stop Nix and the Chargers, but they do allow the fewest points per game (17.6), despite giving up the 15th most total yards per game (336). They’ve kept scoring down by boasting the best red zone defense in the NFL (only 40% of opposing drives end in a TD, per TeamRankings.com).

The Chargers’ bend-yet-rarely-break style of defense allows the clock to wind and for their injury-riddled offense to score enough to get the job done. Running the football will be paramount to the Chargers’ success. They haven’t had much success recently and face a Broncos defense that allows a stingy 98 rushing yards per game.

LA quarterback Justin Herbert is banged up but he’ll likely suit up. His ankle will likely slow his rushing production, and he’ll need a big night from rookie wideout Ladd McConkey. If the offense can find the end zone, they could win as the favorite.

Why Broncos could win as the underdog

Best odds: +130 at Caesars Sportsbook

I like the Broncos to win this game. They are playing tremendous football, a far cry from the mid-October home loss by seven to LA. That’s because the Broncos offense is putting points on the board. They’ve scored 29+ or better in each of its previous four behind a defense that has allowed 86 points across the previous five games.

The Chargers deploy a bend-but-don’t-break type of defense that Nix can be successful against. Nix has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four of his last five games, and he’s especially good in the red zone (16 TDs, 1 INT).

The Broncos are 4-1-0 ATS this season as the away underdog. They know how to keep games close, and Thursday’s AFC West matchup should be hard-hitting and quite physical. Denver has the better defense and a good enough offense to sneak away with a victory.