Breaking down Auburn’s NCAA Tournament draw in the Midwest Region

Breaking down Auburn’s NCAA Tournament draw in the Midwest Region

Auburn’s return path to another Final Four will take it through a couple of familiar locales.

Bruce Pearl’s team, making its fourth NCAA Tournament appearance in the last five postseasons, earned a No. 9 seed in the Midwest Region on Selection Sunday. Auburn will face eighth-seeded Iowa in the opening round in Birmingham on Thursday, with tipoff set for 5:50 p.m. at Legacy Arena (TNT).

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For the Tigers, that means a short trip up Highway 280 (or via I-85 and I-65, if that’s the preferred route) to play a March Madness game close to home in a venue they previously got to check out earlier this season while taking a team outing to watch the Birmingham Squadron of the NBA’s G-League.

“We knew that we were going to be somewhere between 8, 9 or 10 — we were going to be in the 8, 9 or 10 game,” Pearl said. “That’s where we thought we were going to be; that’s what the analytics said. We knew that Birmingham was an 8-9 site, and we also knew Alabama would be there as the 1. But because of the pods and the NCAA trying to keep teams more regional, we had a chance to maybe be there…. I think the NCAA, obviously, we’ve got a new building, a big building in Birmingham to fill. They’ve got a better chance now to fill it, with both Alabama and Auburn being in Birmingham together.”

Auburn’s matchup with Iowa will mark the first-ever meeting between the two schools on the hardwood, but it will also provide Pearl with an opportunity to face a program that holds a significant place in his heart. Early in his career, Pearl spent six seasons as an assistant coach at Iowa under Tom Davis.

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As far as the draw for Auburn, KenPom.com has the Tigers projected as a one-point favorite against the Hawkeyes. Since 2010, ninth-seeded teams have won 51.4 percent of their games against eighth-seeded teams in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. Auburn has won each of its prior three opening-round games under Pearl.

If Auburn hopes to make it 4-for-4 in the round of 64, it’ll have to get by an Iowa team that represents one of the nation’s top offenses. The Hawkeyes (19-13) are third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. The matchup with Iowa could be just the beginning for Auburn in this year’s field.

If the Tigers get past the Hawkeyes, they’d face a likely second-round matchup against the No. 2 overall seed in the tournament: Houston. The Cougars earned the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region and were behind only Alabama in the overall seeding for the field of 68. That’s assuming Houston gets past Northern Kentucky, the 16th-seeded team in the region; there has only been one 16-over-1 upset in tournament history (UMBC’s upset of Virginia in 2018).

That potential second-round matchup with Houston would have a Sweet 16 berth on the line, with the winner advancing to Kansas City next week. Auburn’s last Sweet 16 appearance, back in 2019, also took place in Kansas City, where the Tigers knocked off North Carolina and then defeated Kentucky in overtime in the Elite Eight to earn the program’s first-ever Final Four berth.

The other side of Auburn’s half of the Midwest Region includes fourth-seeded Indiana, fifth-seeded Miami, 12th-seeded Drake and 13th-seeded Kent State. The Hoosiers will play the Golden Flashes in the opening round in Albany, N.Y., while the Hurricanes will face the Bulldogs at that site. Miami, which knocked Auburn out of last year’s tournament in the second round, would be a potential Sweet 16 matchup for the Tigers this time around.

The bottom half of the Midwest Region includes second-seeded Texas taking on 15th-seeded Colgate, which Auburn defeated in nonconference play; third-seeded Xavier facing 14th-seeded Kennesaw State; sixth-seeded Iowa State playing 11th-seeded Mississippi State; and seventh-seeded Texas A&M matching up with 10th-seeded Penn State.

Along with the No. 2 overall seed in the field and the top-rated team in KenPom (Houston), Auburn’s region also includes the sixth overall seed (Texas, the Big 12 champion), the 12th overall seed (Xavier), the 15th overall seed (Indiana), the ACC regular-season champion (Miami, the 20th overall seed), the 21st overall seed (Iowa State), the ASUN Tournament champion (Kennesaw State), the Horizon League Tournament champion (Northern Kentucky), the MAC Tournament champion (Kent State), the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament champion (Drake) and Patriot League Tournament champion (Colgate).

Tom Green is an Auburn beat reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @Tomas_Verde.