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Best Missouri vs. Alabama game and player prop bets: We expect Tide offense to shine

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There‘s no room for error in Tuscaloosa after last week’s loss to Tennessee marked Alabama’s second defeat of the season.

The SEC remains the most loaded conference in college football and a third defeat would crush the Crimson Tide’s College Football Playoff aspirations. Luckily, injury-riddled Missouri limps into Bryant-Denny Stadium as 17-point underdogs.

Read on to see my favorite player and game prop bets for what might serve as an unofficial CFP elimination game.

Best Missouri vs. Alabama game prop pick

According to Missouri’s SEC injury report, QB Brady Cook, WR Mookie Cooper and RB Nate Noel are doubtful to play. Cook is a three-year starter and Noel ranks sixth in the SEC with 503 rushing yards.

Losing either Cook or Noel would be detrimental for the Tigers. Both plays being unlikely to play is devastating.

QB Drew Pyne will be under center if Cook can’t go. Pyne hasn’t been a full-time starter since he was with Notre Dame in 2022. He rode the bench at Arizona State last season.

Alabama’s defense hasn’t been stellar this season. The Tide surrenders 21 points per game. Alabama has given up 24 points or more in four straight games.

However, missing players at key positions will naturally slow the Tigers down. Dealing with injuries in a tough road environment like Bryant-Denny Stadium should add further confidence in Missouri scoring 16 points or less.

Best Missouri vs. Alabama player prop picks

Jalen Milroe longest completion over 40.5 yards

Odds: -115 at bet365

Milroe didn’t hit many deep shots in the past two games. I’m expecting that to change. According to PFF, Missouri’s coverage grade on throws of 20+ yards ranks 84th.

The Tigers haven’t performed well against power-conference opponents this season. Mizzou barely edged out Boston College, Vanderbilt and Auburn, and lost 41-10 versus Texas A&M.

In those games, opposing QBs averaged 220 yards and each passer had at least one completion of 40 yards or more.

South Carolina and Tennessee have strong passing defenses, so it makes sense why Milroe wasn’t at his best. With Alabama’s SEC Championship and CFP hopes hanging in the balance, Milroe needs to be better through the air to get a win.

Milroe hit at least one pass of 40+ yards in the Crimson Tide’s first five games. He should get time to throw if Alabama can establish the run against a Missouri defense allowing 115 rushing yards per game.

The Crimson Tide’s RBs couldn’t move the rock versus South Carolina and Tennessee, resulting in seven sacks on Milroe. Forcing Missouri to respect Alabama’s rushing attack won’t allow the Tigers’ pass rushers to consistently pin their ears back and get after Jalen.

Ryan Williams anytime touchdown scorer

Odds: -110 at Caesars

Ryan Williams is the biggest beneficiary of Milroe getting more time to hit long passes. Outside of a 32-yard outing against South Carolina, the freshman has been Alabama’s most consistent pass catcher.

Williams has five games with 70+ yards and highs of 177 yards and 139 yards. He’s found the end zone in all but one game.

Williams’ seven receiving TDs are tied for eighth nationally. He’s also got one rushing touchdown.

Missouri has only given up six touchdowns through the air. If Milroe can hit home-run throws, those numbers will surely increase on Saturday afternoon.