Auburn’s not the Final Four favorite, which favors the Tigers in so many ways

Poor Auburn. It’s been a nice run, the greatest season in program history even, but now that the Tigers have arrived on the biggest stage, they’re not the baddest animal in the jungle anymore. Imagine being the team voted the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament and the team least likely to succeed at the Final Four.

Those “Doubt Us” Under Armour shooting shirts have become a little too on-brand.

The pundits and wise guys are treating the three other No. 1 seeds in San Antonio like chalk and Auburn like ash. Maybe the local authorities should beat the rush, gather up some of that chalk and draw an outline on the sidewalk outside the Alamodome in the shape of Aubie’s prone body.

That pencil-neck Ken Pomeroy has pegged Auburn as the weakest team in the strongest Final Four in his advanced metrics history, which began in the 1996-97 season. Hey, Bruce Pearl. Nice job developing an outstanding team that ranks 10th all-time in the KenPom ratings. Good luck beating the teams ranked No. 2 (Duke), No. 6 (Houston) and No. 8 (Florida).

Auburn is not supposed to beat Duke because, well, for one reason, Auburn lost its last meeting with the Alabama team that Duke throttled in the Elite Eight. Besides, they played each other, and Auburn lost at Duke.

Auburn is not supposed to beat Houston because, transitive property alert, part 2, Auburn lost its last encounter with the Tennessee team that Houston spanked in the Elite Eight. Sure, they played each other, and Auburn beat Houston in Houston, but that was so long ago, the football Iron Bowl was still three weeks away.

Auburn is not supposed to even get to Duke or Houston in Monday’s national championship game because Auburn is not supposed to beat Florida in Saturday’s first national semifinal. We’ve seen that movie already this season, and it’s rated R for scenes considered extremely disturbing for the young children who populate Neville Arena.

That game contained the most shocking surge of Auburn’s season but in the wrong direction. It was even more stunning than the massive comeback to beat Iowa State in Maui, the powerful closing statement to seize the SEC’s first 1 vs. 2 matchup against Alabama in Tuscaloosa and the early uppercut knockout against Kentucky in Lexington.

At the 14-minute mark of the first half eight weeks ago, all was well. Auburn led Florida by 10 points en route to what would’ve been a 10-0 SEC start. By the 14-minute mark of the second half, everything had gone horribly wrong. Auburn trailed by 21, doomed to suffer its first conference loss. The final nine-point margin was a mirage.

How do you explain a 31-point swing in 20 minutes of game time? Florida didn’t even have starting wing Alijah Martin or supporting post Micah Handlogten available that day. They’re back in a rotation that rivals Duke’s in depth, size and skill.

Meanwhile, Auburn’s best player has spent more time this week in treatment than practice. Johni Broome may be the Six Million Dollar Man in terms of rehabilitated body parts, but his only competition for an assortment of National Player of the Year awards, Duke’s Cooper Flagg, is destined to bank an $11-million rookie salary as the first pick in the NBA draft.

Should the Tigers have even made the trip to San Antonio? After all, their season started in earnest with some airborne hijinks en route to Texas that caused quite a stir on the ground. Why tempt fate a second time?

Here’s why. Why the pundits and wise guys may not be as smart as they think. Why the Geek Squad’s numbers may not add up to another one-and-done visit to the final weekend for the Tigers like 2019.

That was the last time Auburn played an SEC rematch in the NCAA Tournament. It didn’t look good for the Tigers going in then, either. There they were, having blitzed bluebloods Kansas and North Carolina to reach the Elite Eight, and here came the Big Blue Nation. Kentucky was full of John Calipari swagger and deep-rooted arrogance, bolstered by a 2-0 record against Auburn that season.

Until Jared Harper and the Tigers shocked UK with a TKO in overtime to reach Auburn’s first Final Four. And then Virginia double-dribbled, the officials ignored it and you know the rest.

Remember the last time Auburn played a postseason rematch with Florida? It happened just last year. Five weeks earlier, Todd Golden’s Gators had swamped Pearl’s Tigers by 16 in Gainesville. It was a different story when they met in the SEC Tournament Championship Game in Nashville. Auburn ran away with the trophy in a 19-point beatdown.

That was a 35-point swing from one game to the next.

So don’t be surprised if the mentor Pearl learned a few things in February he can use Saturday against his protege Golden. Don’t be shocked if Broome plays through his pain, Tahaad Pettiford performs beyond his years and Auburn reminds everyone once again which of these four elite teams was the best team in the country for a majority of this season.

The other No. 1 seeds may have better metrics and better odds to cut down the final net. That just means Auburn, the new blood with the earned-not-given DNA, has Florida, Houston and Duke right where it wants them.