Auburn vs. Texas A&M predictions, picks, best bets: Letdown spot for the Tigers?

With the SEC regular season championship in hand, Auburn looks to keep its foot on the gas tonight in a tough road matchup against Texas A&M. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. CST on ESPN.

A four-game losing skid has dropped the Aggies to sixth in the conference standings. The top eight teams receive byes in the SEC Tournament, making this a pivotal game for Texas A&M.

The top sportsbooks for college basketball set the spread at Auburn -4.5, and the over/under is 151.5. Let’s get into my predictions and best bets for Auburn versus Texas A&M.

Auburn vs. Texas A&M predictions and best bets

*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

Auburn has been rolling teams during its six-game win streak. In the last two matchups, the Tigers notched a 30-point victory over Ole Miss and beat then-No. 17 Kentucky by 16 at Rupp Arena.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M has dropped four straight by an average of 11 points per game. Two of the losses came in College Station, and the most recent was against unranked Vanderbilt.

The Aggies rank eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom, but head coach Buzz Williams’ squad has given up 80.5 points per game during the losing streak. The Tigers have the most efficient offense in the nation, scoring 90+ points in back-to-back games.

Both teams play with physicality, ranking among the best in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and block percentage, but it’ll be difficult for Texas A&M to impose its will on Auburn superstar Johni Broome. The Wooden Award candidate leads the Tigers in scoring, rebounding, assists and blocks. He only put up nine points and six boards in the win over Kentucky, and Auburn still cruised to a 94-78 victory.

With six players averaging double-digit scoring, the Tigers are one of the deepest teams in college basketball. Broome, Chad Baker-Mazara and Miles Kelly are always capable of taking over a game, and I’m backing the Tigers to cover the spread due to Texas A&M’s recent struggles defensively.

I’m also betting the under because Auburn’s scoring may regress if the team becomes complacent after clinching the SEC title. Texas A&M hasn’t been shooting well lately and was held to 70 points or fewer in six of the last seven games. Plus, the under is 10-6 when the Aggies face an SEC team.

Auburn vs. Texas A&M moneyline odds analysis

Why Auburn could win as the favorite

Best odds: -195 at Caesars Sportsbook

The SEC is far and away the best conference in college basketball, but that hasn’t been a problem for Auburn. The Tigers are 15-1 in conference play with only one road loss this season. Auburn can handle a tough road environment like Texas A&M.

Auburn could be without starter Denver Jones after he exited Saturday’s game with a bone bruise. Jones is an excellent defender and averages 10.7 points, 2 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game.

The Tigers’ guard depth will take a hit if Jones can’t play, but Tahaad Pettiford is a high-quality replacement. The freshman averages 11.1 points and 2.9 assists per game and is one of Auburn’s best 3-point shooters. He’s gone cold from beyond the arc in recent games but poured in 21 points in the win over Kentucky.

Why Texas A&M could win as the underdog

Best odds: +170 at bet365 Sportsbook

The Tigers have become a powerhouse under head coach Bruce Pearl, but matching up with the Aggies is never a walk in the park. Texas A&M has won five of the last seven meetings with Auburn, and the Tigers haven’t won in College Station since 2019.

Auburn is the odds favorite to win the national championship, but tonight’s game could be a letdown spot. The SEC regular season title has already been clinched, and an intense rivalry matchup with Alabama is coming up on Saturday. Broome missed portions of the Tigers’ last game with an injury, and Pearl could give his star player more rest than normal in a game that carries little meaning.

Texas A&M ranks first nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, and crashing the boards will be crucial for leading rebounders Andersson Garcia and Solomon Washington. A big game from leading scorer Wade Taylor IV is also a must for the Aggies to pull the upset. Taylor IV has been out of rhythm from long-range and could get open looks if Jones is sidelined.