Auburn vs. Kentucky prediction, best bets: No. 1 Tigers face road test in Lexington
The calendar turns to March, and this is when champions are made. Auburn is focused on winning more than one title.
The No. 1-ranked Tigers can take the first step in that quest today when they travel to Kentucky for a marquee matchup against the No. 17 Wildcats. Auburn (26-2 SU, 16-11-1 ATS) can clinch at least a share of the SEC regular season championship with a win over Kentucky (19-9 SU, 14-14 ATS) and the odds suggest it is likely to do so.
Auburn needs only one win in its final three games combined with one loss by Alabama to take the SEC title outright. Both can happen on Saturday.
Kentucky, meanwhile, is seventh in the SEC and still has some work to do to finish in the top eight and earn a bye in the SEC Tournament.
The Tigers are 4.5- or 5.5-point favorites over Kentucky today. The total is 167.5 or 168.5 points. Here are our Auburn vs. Kentucky predictions and best bets.
Auburn vs. Kentucky prediction
- Kentucky +5.5 (-118 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Under 168.5 points (-105 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
This is a fantastic matchup ot kick off the March college basketball schedule.
Auburn boasts the No. 1-rated offense in the history of Ken Pomeroy’s offensive ratings, and Kentucky has the No. 6 rating this season. Because the offenses are great, these teams’ above-average defenses are not discussed enough.
Kentucky has the best 3-point shooting offense in the SEC, but Auburn has the best 3-point shooting defense. In its road win over hot-shooting Alabama, Auburn limited the Crimson Tide to 5-of-26 (19.2%) from behind the arc.
Auburn has a great all-round offense, but Kentucky has played great defense at home. In its last three home games, the Wildcats have allowed an average of 60.7 points per game. That includes a 75-64 win over No. 5-ranked Tennessee.
Saturday’s test against Auburn is tougher, of course, especially when you consider Auburn has been a better 3-point shooting team on the road.
With the published point spread and over/under, the implied final score is in the neighborhood of 87-81. When you put it that way, it feels like too many points for a game featuring two underrated defenses.
If the game is lower scoring than anticipated, it will be easier for Kentucky to cover as 5.5-point underdogs. You can argue that Kentucky is in a great spot to win the game outright.
The Wildcats are 7-2 against top-15 teams this season. That includes wins over Duke, Gonzaga, Florida, Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Tennessee.
And then there’s this: Kentucky has won 20 consecutive home games against Auburn. The last time the Tigers won in Lexington was 1988.
Auburn vs. Kentucky moneyline odds analysis
Why Auburn could win as the favorite
Best odds: -205 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Auburn has the nation’s best win percentage on the road. The Tigers are 7-1 (87.5%) away from home and have yet to lose in SEC play. Their only road loss was against No. 2-ranked Duke.
The Tigers relish playing in raucous environments as shown by their road win over Alabama two weeks ago. That attitude combined with supreme talent is a great formula for winning big road games. Auburn oozes confidence, and that’s important to winning in March.
Why Kentucky could win as the underdog
Best odds: +185 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Wildcats have been up-and-down during conference play but have shown tremendous upside against the league’s best teams.
Kentucky is 12-2 at home this season and has scored wins over elite teams like Tennessee, Texas A&M and Florida at Rupp Arena. The Wildcats also beat non-conference rival Louisville at home.
Kentucky has high hopes this season under first-year coach Mark Pope, and the crowd will be as pumped up as ever to watch the Wildcats score another upset of a ranked team.