Auburn enters finale vs. Tennessee with 'fighting chance' to earn NCAA bid

Auburn enters finale vs. Tennessee with ‘fighting chance’ to earn NCAA bid

For all of Auburn’s on-court struggles and shortcomings this season, there’s one thing Bruce Pearl cannot knock the Tigers for.

Their mettle.

Following a 32-point road beatdown at the hands of Kentucky last weekend, Auburn responded by taking No. 2 Alabama down to the wire in Tuscaloosa on Wednesday night. The Tigers built a 17-point second-half lead but watched it slip away as they lost, 90-85, while playing shorthanded in overtime.

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“Just really proud of our guys for sucking it up after getting beat last weekend at Kentucky the way we did and managing to get up off the ground and fight,” Pearl said Friday. “…And then you get—your reward is you get kicked in the teeth again, but that’s OK.”

Auburn has one more chance to pick itself up off the mat this regular season. After a string of frustrating single-digit losses down the stretch — six of them in the last 10 games, including five of them by five points or fewer — Auburn will try to close out its regular-season slate on a high note, though it will again be a daunting challenge. Auburn (19-11, 9-8 SEC) will host No. 12 Tennessee (22-8, 11-6) at 1 p.m. Saturday in Neville Arena (SEC Network) looking to send its seniors out with a win in their final home game and hopefully shore up a postseason spot in the process.

“We’ve had a hard time beating the very best teams on our schedule, but with the exception of maybe at Vanderbilt, everybody we’ve lost to in the last 10 games is going to be in the NCAA Tournament, and Vanderbilt could also,” Pearl said. “…So, we’ve lost to great teams. Nobody played Tennessee better at Tennessee, other than Kentucky. Nobody’s played better Alabama better at Alabama than Auburn. We were right there against Texas A&M. Those are the three top teams in the league. That makes a pretty strong case for us to be able to be an NCAA Tournament team.”

Still, Auburn’s case could use some strengthening in the form of a Quad 1 win against Tennessee. The Tigers enter their season finale with a NET ranking of 36 but just a 2-9 mark in Quad 1 games.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Auburn firmly on the bubble entering the final weekend of the regular season, projecting the Tigers as one of the final four teams to earn a bye and avoid First Four play-in games in Dayton, Ohio. According to Lunardi’s latest projection, Auburn is expected to be an 11-seed in the Midwest Region.

T-Rank, meanwhile, gives Auburn a 70.9 percent chance of earning an at-large bid, with the Tigers currently projected as one of the last four teams to avoid the play-in. A win against Tennessee would boost that number to 93.3 percent, with T-Rank moving Auburn up to an eight-seed in that scenario. A loss to the Vols, however, would likely send the Tigers to the play-in round in Dayton — and leaving Pearl’s team in a precarious situation heading into next week’s SEC Tournament, with little opportunity to substantially boost its resume.

“Adversity reveals character, and we’ve had our share of it, but we’re still in position to be in position,” Pearl said. “That’s the thing; it’s March, and to still have a fighting chance to make the tournament, to be in the upper division of the SEC in a great year (says a lot).”

For Auburn to have that fighting chance against Tennessee, Pearl’s team will have to execute better than it did in its first matchup with the Vols a month ago, when the Tigers lost on the road, 46-43. The promising sign for Auburn is that in the seven games since that rock fight in Knoxville, Tenn., it is averaging 74 points per game and shooting 39.2 percent (56-of-143) from 3-point range.

Even if the wins have been hard to come by for Auburn, its offense has largely found some rhythm late in the season.

“I think the kids should have some confidence, and we obviously are shooting the ball — shot the ball better, got to the foul line more,” Pearl said.

Auburn will need to sustain that improved offense against Tennessee, the nation’s best defensive team, per KenPom. The Vols have the nation’s top field goal percentage defense (35.9 percent), the top 3-point defense (25.1 percent) and are giving up just 56.7 points per game, which is the third fewest in the nation (behind North Texas and Houston).

“Our kids are battling,” Pearl said. “We recognize the opportunity. We recognize the challenge.”

Tom Green is an Auburn beat reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @Tomas_Verde.