Auburn bracketology: Can Tigers improve NCAA seeding at the SEC Tournament?

Auburn bracketology: Can Tigers improve NCAA seeding at the SEC Tournament?

Auburn finally put its stamp on the 2022-23 season on Saturday, when Bruce Pearl’s team picked up a signature win in its final regular-season outing. Auburn defeated Tennessee — the No. 3 team in NET rankings — at Neville Arena to move the Tigers off the bubble and shore up their NCAA Tournament bid.

Come Selection Sunday, Pearl’s program will officially go dancing for the fourth time in the last five postseasons (there was no NCAA Tournament in 2020, and Auburn served a self-imposed postseason ban in 2021). Before the full bracket is unveiled, there’s the matter of the SEC Tournament this week in Nashville, Tenn. The Tigers are the No. 7 seed in the SEC Tournament and will face 10th-seeded Arkansas on Thursday evening at Bridgestone Arena on SEC Network.

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For Auburn, the conference tournament won’t hurt its NCAA outlook, but it could help the Tigers improve their seeding for March Madness considering their draw, even though the selection committee doesn’t historically put a lot of emphasis on the conference tournaments (see: Texas A&M last season). The opening game against the Razorbacks (NET No. 18) is a Quad 1 opportunity, as would be the quarterfinals meeting with second-seeded Texas A&M (NET No. 23) and a potential semifinal showdown with third-seeded Kentucky (NET No. 23), should the Tigers make it to the weekend. If Auburn makes it all the way to Sunday’s championship game, it would have likely faced four top-25 NET teams on its way to the SEC Tournament title (top-seeded Alabama likely awaits on the other side of the bracket).

While that would certainly be a tall order for Pearl’s team, it’s also quite the opportunity for the Tigers to improve their seeding for the NCAA Tournament — and one not many teams across the country will have this week.

“It’s all about tournament play now,” Pearl said after Saturday’s big win. “It’s about postseason now. What kind of seed can you get? What kind of position can you put yourself in to advance in postseason play. That’s where we’re at right now.”

According to T-Rank’s Teamcast, a win against Arkansas would move Auburn up to a No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament, regardless of the result in the quarterfinals. If the Tigers could then knock off the Aggies and the Wildcats to make it to the conference final, T-Rank’s Teamcast projects Auburn moving up to a No. 5 seed in the field.

And if Pearl’s team were to win the SEC Tournament for the first time since its magical 2019 run, picking off four Quad 1 opponents in the process, T-Rank’s Teamcast has Auburn climbing all the way to a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

So, while this week’s stay in Nashville can’t harm Auburn’s chances, there is an opportunity for the Tigers to potentially improve their seeding line ahead of Selection Sunday. With Auburn’s ticket to the Big Dance essentially secured, AL.com will take another snapshot of the Tigers’ NCAA Tournament resume, with a look at the team’s record by quadrant, as well as the latest projections for the Tigers in the field of 68.

Here’s where things stand entering the SEC Tournament and with Selection Sunday just days away:

Auburn’s season at a glance:

Overall record: 20-11

SEC record: 10-8 (seventh in the league)

AP poll rank: unranked

KenPom: 26th (56th in offensive efficiency, 25th in defensive efficiency)

NET ranking: 32nd

Home record: 14-2

Road record: 4-8

Neutral-site record: 2-1

Quadrant 1 record: 3-9

Quadrant 2 record: 6-1

Quadrant 3 record: 8-1

Quadrant 4 record: 3-0

Best resume win: March 4 vs. Tennessee, 79-70, at Neville Arena (Quadrant 1 win against NET No. 3)

Worst resume loss: Jan. 3 at Georgia, 76-64 (Quadrant 3 loss)

Other notable wins: Jan. 7 vs Arkansas (NET 18) at Neville Arena; Nov. 23 vs. Northwestern (NET 38) in Cancun.

Strength of record: 30th

NET Strength of schedule: 20th

The week ahead: vs. 10th-seeded Arkansas on Thursday in the SEC Tournament.

Latest NCAA Tournament projections (as of March 7)

Bracket Matrix, which compiles a composite field based on bracket projections from 107 different prognosticators, has Auburn as a No. 9 seed in the tournament, with the Tigers appearing on all 107 projections.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Auburn projected as a No. 9 seed in the West Region, with the Tigers drawing a first-round matchup against eighth-seeded Florida Atlantic in Sacramento. That would set up a potential second-round matchup against No. 1 seed UCLA. FAU would be an intriguing draw for the Tigers, as former Auburn standout K.T. Harrell is on staff with the Owls.

Jerry Palm at CBS Sports has Auburn as a No. 8 seed in the Midwest Region, with the Tigers facing ninth-seeded Iowa in the opening round in Birmingham. That would set up a potential second-round matchup with top-seeded Houston should Auburn advance.

Bracket WAG currently projects Auburn as the 10th-seeded team in the East Region, setting up a Cancun Challenge rematch with seventh-seeded Northwestern in the opening round.

RealTimeRPI.com has Auburn as a No. 6 seed in the Midwest Region, with an opening-round matchup against 11th-seeded Oral Roberts that could lead to a rematch of last year’s second-round matchup against Miami; the Hurricanes are projected as the No. 3 seed in this bracket.

Bart Torvik’s T-Rank projection has Auburn as the top No. 8 seed in the field.

SB Nation’s most recent projection has Auburn as a 10-seed in the West Region, with the Tigers facing seventh-seeded TCU in Sacramento, Calif., in the opening round.

The Athletic projects Auburn as an 11-seed in the West Region, with the Tigers squaring off against seventh-seeded San Diego State in the opening round in Greensboro, N.C.

Tom Green is an Auburn beat reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @Tomas_Verde.