Auburn better than perception; Texas A&M is not

Auburn better than perception; Texas A&M is not

Celebrated from coast to coast by sports fans, bag men, mafia kings and mathematicians, Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero is the greatest resource for college football shenanigans on the internet. This is the 13th season for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero in its various forms. Joe is the reigning king of the picks, but we could only find a jester’s cap ‘n’ bells for him to wear.

Perhaps it is true, then, what William Shakespeare wrote in “King Lear.”

“Jesters do oft prove prophets,” mused the Great Bard.

What is Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero? Consider it a gift to society.

THE GRAND EXPERIMENT

Joseph Goodman is the lead sports columnist for AL.com. What happens when a sportswriter picks some of the toughest games of the week and goes head-to-head against a sharp and a football expert with a Harvard education? It’s a gift for college football fans every week in the state where college football is like a religion.

The Pro features his best picks on his website, ParamountSports.com, but he fearlessly picks the most difficult college games of the week against Joe and the Hero. Joe is just a hack and a slacker who everyone loves to hate.

No one works harder than the Hero. Nobody. Abercrombie played football at Hoover High School and Harvard, and he’s working every day to regain his ability to walk. He’s a student at Harvard, and an inspiration to all. To thank him, we want everyone to stand up for Ben and show him some love.

Show Joe no love at all. Besmirch his name at small dinner parties, and troll him on Twitter.

Before we get started, check out last week!

LAST WEEK

Joe: 4-2 straight up, 3-3 against the spread

Pro: 3-3 straight up, 2-4 against the spread

Hero: 3-3 straight up, 2-4 against the spread

Notes: Week 5 was a wild one, and not just because Auburn blew another halftime lead. UAB lost its dragon teeth attempting to chew on Rice, and that was enough to give Joe a narrow advantage. Everyone missed on Alabama, which covered the spread after losing Bryce Young.

OVERALL

Joe: 21-9 straight up, 15-14-1 against the spread

Pro: 22-8 straight up, 14-15-1 against the spread

Hero: 22-8 straight up, 13-16-1 against the spread

Notes: The resident clown has taken the lead, and he’s celebrating with jokes. Why did Bryan Harsin ask for 100 pennies to change a dollar? His Auburn accountant told him they were harder to lose than four quarters. On to the picks!

Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels escapes a tackle by Houston defensive lineman Nelson Ceaser en route to a touchdown. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)AP

No.17 TCU (4-0, 1-0 Big 12) at No.19 Kansas (5-0, 2-0 Big 12)

When: 11 a.m., Sat.

Where: David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, Kan.

TV: FS1

Series: TCU leads 25-9-4.

Spread: TCU by 5.

Trendy: Kansas is 5-0 against the spread this season.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Kansas is averaging 41.6 points per game (12th in the nation). More impressively, the Jayhawks are ranked third nationally in third-down conversion percentage (60). TCU is second in the country in scoring offense (48.5 ppg).

Joe says: Lawrence is getting the GameDay experience this weekend, and the Jayhawks’ sudden emergence is one of the best stories in college football. But wait! Last week, TCU had almost 500 yards of total offense IN THE FIRST against Oklahoma. This is going to be a fun one. First-year TCU coach Sonny Dykes is making noise in the Big 12 already. Kansas coach Lance Leipold, in his second year, has designed the perfect offensive scheme to match his personnel. There’s a lot of triple-option offense going on, but out of the shotgun. It’s tough to prepare for in a week, and Jayhawks quarterback Jalon Daniels is an accurate passer with a good arm. Keeping the Horned Frogs’ offense off the field will be the key for Kansas, and I think they have the quarterback to do it.

Joe’s pick: Kansas 38, TCU 35

Pro says: Iowa State’s defense on the road limited Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels to 93 yards passing and eight yards rushing. If they had a kicker who was somewhat accurate and didn’t miss three field goals, Iowa State would have won the game. TCU may not have as good of a defense, but its offense has averaged 48.6 points per game the last three weeks and has No.1-ranked quarterback in pass efficiency in Max Duggan. Sometimes you have to lay it — even on the road — to play it.

Pro’s pick: TCU 42, Kansas 28

Hero says: Jayhawks coach Lance Leipold has turned Kansas into a competitive program and is now dealing with rumors about other head coach openings at Wisconsin and Nebraska. Meanwhile, first-year TCU head coach Sonny Dykes has had immediate success with the Horned Frogs primarily by reviving a long dormant TCU offense led by senior quarterback Max Duggan. He accounted for five TDs last week against Oklahoma. While the Horned Frogs may suffer a slight hangover from their dominant victory over Oklahoma last Saturday, the Jayhawks will be distracted as well by hosting GameDay for the first time.

Hero’s pick: TCU 45, Kansas 38

Bijan Robinson

Texas running back Bijan Robinson runs for a 78-yard touchdown against UTSA at DKR Texas Memorial Stadium. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)AP

Texas (3-2, 1-1 Big 12) vs. Oklahoma (3-2, 0-2 Big 12)

When: 11 a.m., Sat.

Where: Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas

TV: ABC

Series: Texas leads 62-50-5.

Spread: Texas by 4.

Trendy: Texas is 4-1 against the spread this season.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Both teams are unranked for the Red River Showdown for the first time since 1998. Oklahoma’s 31-point loss to TCU was the Longhorns’ worst loss to a Big 12 opponent since losing to Baylor 48-14 in 2014.

Joe says: Intrigue and hype might be waning, but there’s no lack of mystery surrounding the River River Showdown. Both teams have injured quarterbacks, and the coaches aren’t saying if Texas’ Quinn Ewers or Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel will play or sit out. Gabriel had a concussion against TCU, so he seems doubtful. Ewers hasn’t played since he went out against Alabama, but apparently he’s improving. Here’s what we know. The Sooners’ longtime defensive struggles haven’t gone away under new coach Brent Venables, and they actually might be worse than ever before. Texas backup quarterback Hudson Card was excellent last week against West Virginia and that should be enough. Texas and Oklahoma are leaving the Big 12 for the SEC, but it’s not because they can’t find decent competition among their familiar foes.

Joe’s pick: Texas 42, Oklahoma 28

Pro says: When you buy stocks, the idea is to buy low and sell high. Oklahoma will possibly never be this big of an underdog the rest of the season after getting blown out the last two weeks. Even if Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers tries to come back, he won’t be 100 percent and should be rusty. This is a series where you almost play the underdog blindly as that angel has covered 22 of the last 35 years. Throw out the records. Boomer Sooner!

Pro’s pick: Oklahoma 35, Texas 31

Hero says: A few weeks ago this game looked a lot different, but Oklahoma was upset by Kansas State and Texas looked like Texas in losing to Texas Tech. Texas did bounce back by beating a scrappy West Virginia team while Oklahoma was destroyed at home by TCU and lost their starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel to a concussion. Texas quarterback Hudson Card replaced injured starter Quinn Ewers in the Alabama game and has shown steady improvement. Ewers could be back for this game, but the Longhorns are confident they can move the football on a Sooner defense that was shredded last week by TCU. First-year Oklahoma coach Brent Venables has a lot of experience coaching in this game and will have the Sooners fighting hard against their future SEC rival. I don’t think Texas will give up a big lead like last year in this game under second-year coach Steve Sarkisian.

Hero’s pick: Texas 31, Oklahoma 20

Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers passes against Bowling Green

Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers passes against Bowling Green at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Miss. Rogers leads the SEC in multiple passing categories.(AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

Arkansas (3-2, 1-2 SEC) at No.23 Mississippi State (4-1, 1-1 SEC)

When: 11 a.m., Sat.

Where: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Miss.

TV: SEC Network

Series: Arkansas leads 18-13-1.

Spread: State by 9.5.

Trendy: Joe covered the spread last week with Mississippi State’s victory against Texas A&M.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers leads the SEC in completions (171), completion percentage (73.1), yards (1,715) and touchdown passes (19).

Joe says: The Bulldogs are on the rise in coach Mike Leach’s third season. Honestly, I’m a little surprised. I didn’t think it was going to work out for Leach in Starkville, but it looks like this might be a great fit for him. Last week’s victory against Texas A&M put Leach above .500 with State (15-14), and the Bulldogs are competitive in most games. A muffed punt in the fourth quarter undid State against LSU, but the Bulldogs also had trouble with dual-threat quarterback Jayden Daniels. Arkansas has lost two in a row and now the Hogs might be without quarterback KJ Jefferson (concussion). Jefferson seems doubtful, but I still think the Razorbacks have enough weapons to keep this thing close and maybe even pull the upset.

Joe’s pick: Arkansas 31, Mississippi State 28

Pro says: Even if Razorbacks quarterback KJ Jefferson is a no go, the Razorbacks have the more talented roster. Confidence has to be low after missing out on upsetting Texas A&M and Alabama in back-to-back weeks but these are college kids. They find a way to rebound as quickly as they change classes. Backing Bulldogs coach Mike Leach, who’s just 3-4 against the spread as a home favorite since his move to Starkville, is a long-term losing proposition.

Pro’s pick: Arkansas 24, Mississippi State 20

Hero says: This is a tough spot for the Razorbacks after two disappointing losses while the Bulldogs are riding high after their beatdown of Texas A&M. State is led by junior quarterback Will Rogers, who has 19 touchdown passes to only three interceptions. Mike Leach’s pass-focused offense is also starting to develop a better running game. The rumor is Arkansas may be without star dual-threat quarterback KJ Jefferson. Even with a healthy Jefferson, this game would be a challenge in Starkville against an improved Bulldog defense. Arkansas coach Sam Pittman will be coaching his Hogs hard to bounce back this Saturday, but they are catching the Bulldogs at the wrong time.

Hero’s pick: Mississippi State 34, Arkansas 24

Hendon Hooker

Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker is emerging as a Heisman contender as the catalyst for the highest rated offense in the country. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)AP

No.8 Tennessee (4-0 1-0 SEC) at No.25 LSU (4-1, 2-0 SEC)

When: 11 a.m., Sat.

Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, La.

TV: ESPN

Series: Tennessee leads 20-10-3.

Spread: Tennessee by 4.

Trendy: Tennessee is 3-1 against the spread.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker has the highest quarterback rating in the SEC (183.73).

Joe says: This is a crazy series. Tennessee leads all time but LSU has won five straight. The last three match-ups in Tiger Stadium have come down to the last play, and this one feels like it’s going to be close until the end. LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels struggled on the road against Auburn, and didn’t finish the game after a knee injury. The Tigers are also running back by committee at this point after losing Armoni Goodwin. Tennessee has had a week off after its battle against the Gators. The Vols have the top-rated offense in the country in yards per game (559.3) and Tennessee has been excellent in the red zone. It should be enough, but expect some wackiness along the way.

Joe’s pick: Tennessee 22, LSU 20

Pro says: Bye week came at the perfect time for the Vols to heal up and prepare mentally for a two-week stretch against LSU and Alabama. Give LSU credit for coming back from double digits and defeating both Mississippi State and Auburn. They have major flaws on offense. Quarterback Jayden Daniels threw for only 80 yards last week. On the other side of the field is Tennessee flamethrower Hendon Hooker, who’s averaging 365 passing yards a game. I hear he also plays in the band and sells peanuts when his team is on defense.

Pro’s pick: Tennessee 45, LSU 31

Hero says: The Volunteers benefit from having an off week last Saturday while the Tigers had a tough night game in Auburn. LSU’s offense did not have much success against Auburn’s defense last week and they will need to control the football and score points to keep up with Tennessee. The Vols also benefit from having an 11 a.m. kickoff in Baton Rouge. The Bayou Bengals defense needs to generate some turnovers like they did in Auburn last week to get the LSU fans excited to generate the type of home-field advantage they need to pull the upset. Even though the Tigers’ defense limited Will Rogers and the Mississippi State offense a few weeks ago in Baton Rouge, the Vols downfield passing game and dual-threat quarterback Hendon Hooker could be the difference in a close win for the Volunteers.

Hero’s pick: Tennessee 35, LSU 28

Stetson Bennett vs. Missouri

Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett struggled in Missouri last week. The Bulldogs have won five straight against Auburn.(AP Photo/Colin E. Braley)AP

Auburn (3-2, 1-1 SEC) at No.2 Georgia (5-0, 2-0 SEC)

When: 2:30 p.m., Sat.

Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, Ga.

TV: CBS

Series: Georgia leads 62-56-8.

Spread: Georgia by 28.

Trendy: All five of Georgia’s games have played under the projected point totals. The over/under for this game is 49.5 points.

LINKS: Can Auburn improve its run game against Georgia?

LINKS: Tigers starting center confident O-line can ‘demolish’ Georgia front

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: This is the first time Auburn and Georgia have played in the month of October since 1936.

Joe says: Amen Corner it is not, but the Tigers should maybe throw skyward a couple prayers nonetheless before the start of the second half. Here’s the thing. If the coaching staff could just get out of its own way, this team might be able to turn this season around under quarterback Robby Ashford. Ashford is developing faster than I thought, and that’s a great sign for Auburn’s future. Auburn is going to play above themselves at least for the first half, and the Bulldogs haven’t exactly been playing great the last couple weeks. Georgia is good, but Auburn still has players. Historically, Auburn owns the all-time record in Athens (18-16). I’m 1-3 against the spread with Auburn so far this season, so consider the source, but Auburn actually isn’t as bad as they’ve played late in games. Auburn is still playing hard for Harsin, and that means a lot in rivalry games.

Joe’s pick: Georgia 34, Auburn 21

Pro says: Seems like a huge number to lay for an offense that has been in a funk the last couple weeks. If the Bulldogs play a little better, and the Auburn offense continues to turn over the ball at this rate — 12 in five games — the Georgia offense won’t have to travel far to hit pay dirt. I’m guessing this defeat is the final nail in the coffin and Tigers coach Bryan Harsin gets let go before they fire up the plane engine to head home.

Pro’s pick: Georgia 42, Auburn 7

Hero says: The timing is not good for Auburn this week as they travel to Athens to face a Bulldog team that has underperformed the last two games. The Tigers did show last week that they have some fight left in a tough loss to LSU at home. Former Hoover Bucs quarterback Robby Ashford has shown improvement every game, but he is playing in his first SEC road game in Athens. Georgia will be looking to show improvement in their running game and down-field passing against an Auburn defense with more talented athletes than the Missouri defense that gave them problems. The Tigers can keep it close in the first half, but the Bulldogs should be able to wear them down and pull ahead in the second.

Hero’s pick: Georgia 41, Auburn 16

Alabama

Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe runs against Arkansas. With Bryce Young nursing a sore shoulder, Milroe could be called upon again against Texas A&M. (AP Photo/Michael Woods)AP

Texas A&M (3-2, 1-1) at No.1 Alabama (5-0, 2-0 SEC)

When: 7 p.m., Sat.

Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Ala.

TV: CBS

Series: Alabama leads 11-3.

Spread: Alabama by 23.5.

Trendy: The Hero has nailed Alabama’s covers two weeks in a row.

LINKS: Alabama readies for star-studded recruiting weekend

LINKS: Players responding well to Jalen Milroe, Saban says

GOODMAN: Texas A&M wants what it hasn’t earned

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs leads the SEC in yards per carry (8.79). Nationally, he ranks fifth.

Joe says: Alabama was all over the place against Arkansas, but the good news is that backup quarterback Jalen Milroe gained some valuable experience and the Crimson Tide learned that life without Bryce Young maybe isn’t as bad as people have been predicting. If Milroe has to start in place of Young, then I still like Alabama’s chances at home. Milroe is from Katy, Texas, which isn’t too far from Texas A&M. He’ll be pumped for this one if he gets the call. Texas A&M’s offense is pathetic, and quarterback Max Johnson injured his hand last week. Backup Haynes King threw two interceptions in relief against Mississippi State.

Joe’s pick: Alabama 36, Texas A&M 18

Pro says: If Alabama quarterback Bryce Young plays, he’s at best about 80 percent. Last year headed into this game, the Aggies had only scored 10 and 22 points against Arkansas and Mississippi State. They have similar athletes, but just lack the experience that Alabama has. Don’t just play Alabama based on blind revenge for last season’s 41-38 loss. Jimbo Fisher has nothing to lose and I expect he has some tricks up his sleeve. Take the points here and hold your nose.

Pro’s pick: Alabama 34, Texas A&M 20

Hero says: Two early season losses by Texas A&M have taken the shine off what was billed as the college football game of the year in the summer. Even though the Aggies have underperformed expectations so far this season, Jimbo Fisher should have them fired up to play their best game of the year against Alabama. Unfortunately for Jimbo and the Aggies, Nick Saban and the Tide have had this game highlighted on the calendar since last year’s loss in College Station. Texas A&M does have a strong defense that could make this game interesting if Bryce Young does not play or is ineffective due to his shoulder injury. Backup quarterback Jalen Milroe is an incredible athlete that showed teams he can beat them with his legs last week, but he will eventually have to prove his ability to pass the ball downfield. The Aggies offense has not shown anything this year to give A&M fans confidence that they can move the ball effectively and score enough points against a very good Tide defense. This will be a tough, physical game but the Tide should eventually roll big before a fired-up home crowd in Bryant-Denny.

Hero’s pick: Alabama 44, Texas A&M 14