It would be difficult to assess a 2-4 record through six games as anything other than a disappointment, but all is not lost for South Alabama football in 2024.

Major Applewhite’s Jaguars hit the midway on a two-game losing streak, an expected rout at the hands of LSU followed by a puzzling shortfall at Arkansas State. South Alabama began the season as a team that could score almost at will but could not stop anyone, but against the Red Wolves played excellent defense but suddenly could not score.

Strangely enough, the Jaguars are 2-0 in midweek games and 0-4 on Saturday. That might bode well for South Alabama’s next game, which takes place on Tuesday, Oct. 15, against Troy.

South Alabama played four of its first six games on the road, which means four of its last six — including the next three — will be at Hancock Whitney Stadium. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) metric, gives the Jaguars a 69.3% chance to reach six wins (and bowl eligibility) and a 5.4% to win out (thus finishing the regular season at 8-4).

With South Alabama on a bye week heading into the “Battle for the Belt,” here are five things we think will have to happen for the Jaguars to get back to a bowl game for the third straight season:

1. The Jaguars probably need to win their next 3 games

South Alabama hosts Troy in that Tuesday night game, then has back-to-back Saturday home games vs. Louisiana-Monroe Oct. 26 and Georgia Southern Nov. 2. The Jaguars should be at least a touchdown favorite to beat the Trojans — who are an injury-riddled 1-5 under first-year coach Gerad Parker — for the first time in six years. The Warhawks are an almost unfathomable 4-1 under first-year coach Bryant Vincent, though don’t seem to have the kind of offense that can keep up with South Alabama. Georgia Southern is a serious swing game. The Eagles don’t anything particularly well on offense or defense, but have already proven this year they can win away from home. If South Alabama comes out of its three-game home stretch at 5-4, it would be one win away from bowl-eligibility with struggling Southern Miss still on the schedule. One slipup in that sequence, however, and the Jaguars would have to pull off an upset over Louisiana or Texas State.

2. Gio Lopez has to stay healthy and effective

Lopez has been a dynamic playmaker both running and throwing in the five games he’s played this season, but still has to manage the turf toe he incurred in Week 1 vs. Texas State. Perhaps the 10-day break between Arkansas State and Troy will finally allow the injury to completely heal. He’s also made good decisions for the most part, not throwing his first interception of the season until last week and not taking an inordinate number of sacks. Lopez has taken some hard shots this season, particularly in the LSU game. If he suffers an injury that keeps him out for any length of time, the Jaguars’ hopes of reaching the postseason almost certainly go with him. Jamaal Pritchett is enjoying an all-conference type season at wide receiver, while Devin Voisin, Jeremiah Webb, Anthony Eager, Shemar Sandgren and DJ Thomas-Jones have also had their moments. But as we saw in the Ohio game, the Jaguars’ passing game would be hamstrung without Lopez at the controls.

3. South Alabama running games needs to recharge

The Jaguars have been at their best this season when they’ve run to win, particularly when Lopez is able to get loose on the read option. South Alabama still leads the conference in rushing at better than 200 yards per game, but has totaled 273 yards combined on the ground after running for 363 vs. Northwestern State and 320 vs. App State. The offensive line play has been mostly good this season, though penalties have undermined the running game at times. Fluff Bothwell was the talk of the Sun Belt through most of September, but he’s been largely a non-factor the last two weeks as opposing defenses have geared up to stop him. He’s still second in the conference in rushing, and is averaging better than seven yards per carry. Kentrel Bullock has been solid as well, averaging 6.3 yards per attempt. Braylon McReynolds came into the season as the starter, but was injured early on and has struggled to find a role. He’s too good a player to not be involved more than he has been.

4. Defense must be more aggressive

The South Alabama defense has definitely improved from the porous unit we saw in the season-opener vs. North Texas, and is coming off one of its better showings of the year against Arkansas State despite not forcing a turnover. The linebackers in particular — led by Blayne Myrick — are playing at a level that is night and day from early in the season. South Alabama has also shown a better ability to affect opposing quarterbacks of late that it was early in the season. Nevertheless, there were some key breakdowns in the loss to Arkansas State, notably the two-minute situation at the end of the game when the Red Wolves drove for the winning field goal. South Alabama’s players and coaches seemed to be worried about giving up the big play, and thus sat back in coverage and allowed Arkansas State to methodically drive down the field. The Jaguars’ offense is good enough that the defense can — and probably should — take more risks than it has been.

5. Jaguars must cut down on their penalties

South Alabama has been called for the most total penalties in the conference, and is 11th (4th-worst) in the league in penalty yards per game. The Jaguars have been the least penalized team on the field in only one of six games this season. It can be fairly said that penalties cost the Jaguars the Arkansas State game, as a number of motion and illegal formation infractions either nullified big plays (including a 46-yard run by Lopez) or moved the team behind the sticks and limited what they could do offensively. South Alabama also got called for pass interference twice in the red zone, giving the Red Wolves first-and-goal situations both times. Applewhite has said that communication issues have been as much at fault as concentration lapses on the offensive side, so it seems like the problems are fixable. They need to be fixed, or the Jaguars might be sitting home when bowl season arrives.

South Alabama has had an ultimate up-and-down season, beginning with two losses, followed by two wins, then two losses again. Thus, the expectations for how the Jaguars might end up have been reset multiple times already.

As stated above, the next three weeks will tell a lot about what this team’s ceiling for 2024 might be. By the time the Jaguars play another game away from Hancock Whitney Stadium, they could either be fighting for a division title, or simply playing out the string.