Anything to watch in the tropics? Peak of season ahead

The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is coming next week on Sept. 10.

But there are no named storms to worry about — and there may not be any this week, according to forecasters.

Which is good news but also unexpected considering the forecasts for a supercharged 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and the record-warm tropical seas.

NOAA’s hurricane season outlook, updated in early August, suggested there would be 17-24 named storms before the season is over.

Forecasters still think this hurricane season will be very active. Here is the August forecast update.NHC

The Atlantic basin has not quite lived up to fears/expectations so far in 2024, with five named storms. In fact, 2024 is running a bit behind climatology, according to data from the National Hurricane Center.

Here is a look at a typical Atlantic hurricane season. An average hurricane season would have seven named storms by this point:

Hurricane season dates

A typical Atlantic hurricane season should have seven named storms by Sept. 3. There have been five so far in 2024.NHC

2024 is a little ahead, however, in the number of hurricanes. There have been three so far this season — Beryl, Debby and Ernesto. All three of those made landfall, too. A typical season would have three hurricanes by Sept. 7.

There has also been one major hurricane — Beryl — which peaked as a Category 5 on July 1, the earliest Category 5 in the Atlantic on record. The first major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane typically doesn’t form until Sept. 1.

It should be noted that there is still a lot of season to go. The official end of the Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t arrive until Nov. 30, and September and October have often produced devastating storms, including in the Gulf of Mexico.

But as of Monday there is nothing extremely concerning looming for those along the coasts.

There was a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, but the hurricane center on Monday gave it only a 10 percent probability of becoming a tropical depression in the next week. It could move inland on Tuesday.

It has been spreading at times heavy rain across parts of Texas and Louisiana, and it may bring more potentially flooding rain to those areas over the next few days.

Farther to the east was a tropical wave that has been watched for a while now. It had a 40 percent (medium) chance of becoming a depression in the next week as of Monday.

It was disorganized but was bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico on Monday, according to the hurricane center.

It could move into a more favorable area for development by late this week or this weekend, and it could become a depression.

Forecast models show it moving westward across the Caribbean and toward the southwestern Gulf by that time, so it will be watched closely.

The National Weather Service in Mobile continued to keep an eye on the system on Monday and said models have been “generally consistent in taking this system towards the Yucatan Peninsula, and from there, the Bay of Campeche and old Mexico.”

The third tropical disturbance was in the far eastern Atlantic just off the west coast of Africa. It could also become a depression in the next few days as it moves to the west-northwest or northwest.

It also has a 40 percent probability of becoming a depression in the next week. Indications are, however, that this system will curve more to the northwest and into the open Atlantic.

Hurricane season climatology

The Atlantic hurricane season typically peaks in September.