Alabama’s ‘prime time’ for severe weather is coming
In 2022 Alabama had 98 tornadoes — more than any year on record besides 2011.
January 2023 continued the busy streak with 29 tornadoes, making it the most active January on record for twisters in the state.
Could that mean the “prime time” for severe weather — March, April and May — is going to be just as bad, or worse?
Not necessarily, according to the National Weather Service.
The truth is there is no way to tell this far in advance just how active Alabama’s spring severe weather season will be.
But, it is Alabama, after all, so there is a high chance at least some part of the state will have to deal with a round of severe storms this spring.
That’s why the National Weather Service is conducting Severe Weather Awareness Week this week. Each day this week the weather service plans to roll out streams of information to help you prepare for the worst weather.
Each day this week will have a theme, and there will be a voluntary tornado safety drill on Wednesday, Feb. 8.
Later this month is the annual sales tax holiday for severe weather supplies, including batteries, tarps and plywood, among other things.
The severe weather sales tax holiday is scheduled for the last full weekend of February, starting at 12:01 a.m. on Friday, Feb. 24, and ending at midnight on Sunday, Feb. 26.
See more on the sales tax holiday — and a list of participating areas — here.
See all the eligible items here.
2023 OFF TO A RECORD START
Alabama had a record-setting 29 tornadoes in January.
Is January’s record-setting number of tornadoes an omen of what’s to come this spring?
There’s no way to tell this far out, according to the weather service.
“We have not found the key, the magic formula, to make an accurate prediction for the upcoming spring,” said John DeBlock, the warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Birmingham.
“It only takes one tornado to make your year the worst year ever. So everyone needs to be prepared for that one tornado that’s going to affect them. We’re going to talk about our tornado season going from Veterans Day to Mother’s Day. We have two peaks in that tornado season, which are November, December and then March, April, May. Everybody needs to be prepared for a tornado — and know what to do and have that plan memorized.”
Alabama had 14 “tornado days” in 2022, DeBlock said.
“That means on 14 days a year there is at least one tornado that occurs somewhere in Alabama,” he said. “We live in the great state of Alabama, and that’s kind of the hazard that we choose to deal with by living here. We don’t have earthquakes like they have in California, we don’t have blizzards like they have in Minnesota and North Dakota. We do tornadoes.”
All the more reason to be prepared.
“It’s important for everyone to be ready. We don’t know which 14 days of the year it’s going to be,” DeBlock said. “So you’ve got to be ready, you’ve got to be prepared. Have your plan in place, have your kit, know where you’re going to go. All the things that you need to be prepared for a tornado you’ve got to be ready to activate that, on the average, 14 times a year.”
January had a record-setting 29 tornadoes — the most of any January since 1950. And there’s no clear-cut reason why it was so active.
“Maybe 50 years from now they’ll be able to look back and find some sort of correlating factor involved in all those,” DeBlock said.
He added that the prime suspects — La Nina (and in other years El Nino), which are big influences on the global climate, only have diluted influences on Alabama’s weather.
“It makes a big difference on the West Coast, but by the time the storm systems get across the United States, and the interaction from the polar jet and the Gulf Stream and the warmer Gulf waters — it’s really a minimal signal, if any, as to if La Nina means more or El Nino means more severe weather,” he said. “So I think for the severe weather in Alabama, for lack of any other thing to look at, we’re more affected by those transitory, short- to medium-range trends.
“In January we just had an active storm track across the Gulf Coast over the first two weeks of January,” he continued. “It’s kind of quieted down as least as far as the severe aspect has been, but we’ve got more of a Pineapple Express setup now where we are getting more tropical moisture in here and more rainy weather rather than severe weather.”
There may not be a crystal ball that can see months into the future, but there are some hints to be found in predictions from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
“The 6- to 10-day forecast and the 8- to 14-day forecast … if you look at those forecasts and if you see that we’re forecast to be above normal for the next two weeks, temperature-wise and precipitation-wise … that could probably be where you could find a theme for the threat for severe weather over the next two weeks. There is some skill in those really extended forecasts as far as setting the stage and what kind of weather we might expect,” DeBlock said.
Above-average temperatures for Alabama combined with above-average rain chances to the west of the state would be something to pay attention to, he said, because that would indicate storm systems potentially moving in from the west and meeting warmer air over Alabama, which could be more favorable for storm formation.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has severe weather outlooks that go out seven days in advance as well.
YOU COULD SAVE SOMEONE’S LIFE
DeBlock said one of the most important things to do to prepare is to have a plan — and know the plan backwards and forwards.
Another thing is to take a second and think over your plans when bad weather is a possibility.
“Stop what you are doing and take a look at what you’ve got planned for the timeframe that we’re expecting severe weather, and make a plan to get yourself in a place of better safety,” DeBlock said.
“Commit to not being out on the road. You use that time when you stop and you analyze the situation to make a plan to keep your family and your friends and your co-workers safe. Make a conscious choice to be safe and survive the storm that’s coming.”
And tell your not-weather-aware friends and family to pay attention as well.
“Who would not want to save a life if you could?” DeBlock said.
“Our mission is to protect life and property but we need your help. We’re not going to be able to knock on everyone’s door. You are going to have to help us knock on everyone’s door. But you know there are people that have situations in life where they’re not watching the news, they may not be paying attention. So make sure your loved ones are all aware of the coming threat.”
Alabama’s Severe Weather Awareness Week runs until Feb. 10.
See more from the National Weather Service here:
NWS Tallahassee, Fla. (covers southeast Alabama)