Democratic congressional hopeful Shomari Figures outraised Republican Caroleene Dobson by almost doubling her contributions during the third quarter, according to campaign finance reports filed Thursday with the Federal Election Commission.

Figures, a former deputy chief of staff and counselor to Attorney General Merrick Garland in the Department of Justice, hauled in nearly $1.1 million in contributions, which his campaign argues may be a record-setting showing in a single quarter by a Democratic congressional candidate in Alabama.

The amount is nearly double the money raised by Dobson, a real estate attorney from Montgomery, who raised $558,226, during the same time frame.

“We are incredibly grateful for the support our campaign has receive from people from all walks of life, and from every corner of the state,” Figures said in a statement Wednesday. “The more than $1 million raised is an investment from the people who are ready to protect Social Security benefits, expand health care access, and elect someone who will put this District first and actually work to find solutions for the most pressing problems we have here at home.”

The amount Figures raised from July 1 to Sept. 30, represents 55% of the overall $1.9 million in contributions he’s brought in since the campaign began. Dobson’s third-quarter haul, comparatively speaking, was lower and represented 41% of the $1.4 million she’s raised during the entire campaign.

The Figures and Dobson campaigns were both buoyed by outside spending, particularly through political action committees representing the national arms of their respective political parties. According to FEC data, the Figures campaign received contributions of over $661,000 from ActBlue, a funding apparatus for the Democratic Party. Dobson’s campaign has been bolstered with over $196,000 in support from WinRed, an overarching PAC that donates to Republican candidates nationwide.

Dobson, herself, loaned her campaign $295,000 during the third quarter, bringing the total amount up to $1.7 million, according to FEC information.

Reinforcing criticism

The latest FEC statistics continue to build on the criticism raised by both candidates during last week’s AL.com debate, sponsored by the AARP. For Dobson, the data reinforced her criticism that Figures is an “outsider” candidate funded by Washington, D.C.-based interests. And for the Figures camp, the $1.7 million in personal loans to her campaign emphasized their attack on Dobson that she is rich and unable to related to a mostly rural and poor congressional district.

“Much of Figures’ fundraising dollars come from groups and individuals in places like Massachusetts, California, and Washington, D.C., where their extreme liberal beliefs are directly opposed to the traditional morals and values that most Alabamians embrace,” said Drew Dickson, a Dobson campaign spokesperson. “His high-dollar, out-of-state donors want to elect a Washington, D.C. insider who does not live in Alabama, does not think like Alabama, and will not vote the way Alabamians want him to vote, and Shomari Figures is the perfect puppet for their liberal purposes.”

Figures has said he is a Mobile resident.

Sheena Gamble, a spokesperson with the Alabama Democratic Party, said the FEC data illustrates a different portrayal of Dobson that her campaign projects in advertisement and in her remarks to organizations.

Figures, during the AL.com debate, accused Dobson of being a “billionaire,” an accusation that Dobson disputes and in which fact-checking is difficult to pin down. A House Ethics Committee disclosure shows her net worth falling somewhere between $700,000 and $1.8 million. But the value on a host of business and real estate interests held between Dobson and her husband were listed as “undetermined.”

Philip Hardee, an orthodontist who “built a large cattle and timber operation in Monroe County,” according to his bio on the Alabama Livestock Hall of Fame’s website, is Dobson’s father.

“While she continues to portray herself as a simple farm girl, most farm girls don’t loan their political campaign $1.7 million,” Gamble said. “Caroleene Dobson’s massive family wealth gives her the motivation and means to outspend during this final campaign stretch. We can’t afford to allow another Republican to purchase a congressional seat for more of the same ole’ Alabama politics.”

Race to Nov. 5

Both campaigns closed out the reporting period with a sizable amount of cash on hand to use during the final month ahead of the election. Figures ended September with $745,216, while Dobson ended last month with $491,765.

Jon Gray, a Republican Party strategist, said that despite Figures’ advantages, the overall race will be close on Nov. 5.

He said that turnout remains the biggest factor, and one that could favor Dobson if white-Black turnout percentages from the 2022 election mirror next month’s election.

Gray said that during the 2022 governor’s race – in which Republican Kay Ivey won handily at the top of the ticket – the counties that make up the 2nd congressional district had over 53% of white voters, surpassing the majority of Black voters who make up the 2nd district.

“There is no question Dobson is not the front runner,” Gray said. “But I say that she is very much alive in this race.”

Another factor that could play into the 2nd district race is the how the presidential contest closes between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Recent polling showed Trump’s numbers improving in the battleground states, and the race essentially considered a tie between the two candidates.

“If she loses momentum two weeks out from the election, and her vote is downgraded, and the national talk is about Trump winning, then that could create (down ballot) apathy,” Gray said. “Therea are just a lot of factors that play into this since it is a brand new (congressional) district.”

But national pundits view the race as almost a lock for Figures. Cook Political Report has long labeled the 2nd congressional district as “likely Democrat.” Sabato’s Crystal Ball also labels the race as “likely Democratic.”

Figures, in his statement, said he’s not taking the remaining days of the contest lightly.

“While we are incredibly thankful for the financial support the campaign is receiving, we know that this is and will continue to be a very tough race, and there is a lot of work to do,” he said. “Let’s roll up our sleeves and continue to work hard until the polls close on November 5th.”

The 2nd congressional district is providing a rare opportunity for Alabama voters this year in that it’s the first time in 14 years in which a General Election race for a seat in the U.S. House is considered competitive. The last time that occurred was in 2010, when Republican Martha Roby flipped the 2nd district red by narrowly defeating incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Bobby Bright.

The dynamics of the district were changed by a three-judge panel almost a year ago to reshape it into a congressional seat that gives Black voters an opportunity to elect a candidate of their choosing.

The panel was empowered to redraw the district after the U.S. Supreme Court, in a 5-4 decision in Allen v. Milligan, agreed with a lower court’s determination that Alabama should have at least another congressional district that Black voters were a majority or were close to it.

The state’s lone Black member of Congress is U.S. Rep. Terri Sewell of Birmingham, who represents the 7th district. About 27% of Alabama residents are Black, according to census data reported last year.

The Supreme Court’s verdict last year suggested that Alabama Republicans violated the Voting Rights of Act 1965 with the original congressional map it had approved. In short, the Supreme Court agreed that Alabama’s Legislature had diluted the influence of Black voters when drawing congressional lines.

The new congressional district has a Black voting-age population near 50%, a majority but not enough to make the seat a comfortable Democratic win, according to political science professor Thomas Shaw at the University of South Alabama.

My concern all along is that I think for the first election or two because of the newness and salience of the 2nd District that Democrats will likely win the district,” Shaw said, predicting a Figures win. “However, long term, I think the lack of a majority Black population will cause the 2nd District to be more contested in future races.”

He added, “I would like to imagine that Democrats will maintain their hold on the 2nd District as I think that is what was intended by the courts. However, given what I believe will be a more tenuous hold in the future, I don’t think this economic advantage can be counted on consistently going forward.”