Alabama vs. Tennessee player prop picks: Best bets for Milroe, Haynes and Sampson

Alabama’s highly-anticipated road test against long-time rival Tennessee is almost here.

The SEC Championship and College Football Playoff implications are monumental, adding more layers to an already exciting matchup.

Player prop betting is a great way to enjoy the game, as you root for specific outcomes on every snap. Below are my three favorite Alabama vs. Tennessee player prop picks.

Best Alabama vs. Tennessee player props for Saturday

Jalen Milroe 2+ touchdowns

Odds: +245 at DraftKings ($10 bet pays out $24.50)

Tide QB Jalen Milroe must score twice with the ball in his hands for this prop to cash. Passing scores don’t count in touchdown betting markets.

Two touchdowns in one game is a notable achievement for most players. It’s the norm for Milroe.

Milroe has rushed for two touchdowns in five of six games this season. The exception came vs. Vanderbilt when the redshirt junior only found the end zone once.

Milroe is a threat to score anytime he touches the ball, thanks to his blazing-fast speed and ability to find defensive soft spots. At 6’2, 225 pounds, he’s hard to bring to the ground when he lowers his shoulder.

However, it won’t be easy against Tennessee’s defense. The Volunteers allow only 11 points and 79 rushing yards per game. Both figures rank top five nationally.

Ole Miss and Texas are the only SEC defenses that have surrendered fewer rushing touchdowns. This is why Milroe’s 2+ touchdowns prop comes with +225 odds.

While Tennessee’s defensive statistics are eye-popping, the Vols haven’t faced many mobile QBs. The few they have played don’t match Milroe’s big-play ability.

Justice Haynes Under 26.5 rushing yards

Odds: -114 at FanDuel ($10 bet pays out $8.77)

Despite the odds implying a 53.3% chance RB Justice Haynes rushes for less than 26.5 yards, taking a yardage prop this low is risky. I typically avoid taking the under on yardage props that have a realistic shot at going over on one big play.

I’m making an exception with this prediction because Milroe is the only player running the ball effectively for Alabama.

In three SEC matchups, the Crimson Tide have only handed it off to a running back 12 times per game. Haynes recorded 35 yards vs. Georgia, followed by 23 yards and 26 yards vs. Vanderbilt and South Carolina, respectively.

Considering how strong Tennessee is against the run, I expect Alabama to abandon the run if lanes aren’t open early in the game. With Haynes and RB Jam Miller splitting carries somewhat evenly, going pass-heavy or designing rushes for Milroe means even fewer handoffs for Haynes.

Dylan Sampson Over 99.5 rushing yards

Odds: -115 at Caesars ($10 bet pays out $8.70)

RB Dylan Sampson leads a Tennessee rushing attack that gains the seventh-most yards per game in FBS (246). Sampson’s 699 yards rank ninth and only Boise State RB and Heisman odds leader Ashton Jeanty has more rushing touchdowns.

Alabama did well against the run vs. Western Kentucky and Georgia. Besides those games, the Crimson Tide gave up at least 132 yards in every matchup.

Unlike Alabama splitting carries between Haynes and Miller, Sampson gets most of the carries for Tennessee. QB Nico Iamaleava is still progressing early in his career, forcing the Volunteers to pound the rock with Sampson when things aren’t going well through the air.

Sampson averages 116 yards per game and has surpassed his 99.5-yard prop in all but one matchup this season.