After putting together a double-digit come-from-behind victory, the No. 7 Saint Mary’s Gaels are awarded a second-round matchup against the No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide.

The Round of 32 game tips off at 6:10 PM EST on TNT and will propel either Saint Mary’s or Alabama into the Sweet 16. The Alabama Crimson Tide (-230) are 5.5-point favorites over Saint Mary’s (+190), with the point total is between 148.5 to 149, according to the latest March Madness odds.

Make sure to check out all of the best March Madness betting sites so you can get the best odds and capitalize on all of the excellent first-time user promos and bonuses available to you. Let’s get into my Saint Mary’s vs. Alabama predictions, picks, and best bets.

Alabama vs. Saint Mary’s predictions and best bets

• Saint Mary’s +5.5: -110 at FanDuel
• Under 148.5: -110 at Caesars

*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find while writing; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

For Sunday’s matchup between Alabama and Saint Mary’s, I will be backing the Gaels against the spread at +5.5 (-110), as well as the Under at 148.5 (-110).

The Gaels are masterful at forcing teams to play at their pace; they stop opponents in transition by communicating and scrambling at an elite level.

Saint Mary’s is well aware of its offensive limitations (53rd in adjusted offensive efficiency), so it will do everything possible to make this a grind-it-out game.

Alabama loves to fire up 3s (44th in 3-point rate) but is not a great 3-point shooting team (34.9%). This is advantageous for the Gaels, especially considering they have held their past three opponents to just 23.7% shooting from deep.

Saint Mary’s also has the luxury of being able to sag off of Grant Nelson and Cliff Omoruyi, allowing Mitchell Saxen and Paulius Murauskas to protect the rim and be in a great defensive rebounding position.

While Gonzaga does not play quite as fast as Alabama, all three of the Gaels’ matchups with the Bulldogs stayed well under 149 points. Expect a similar outcome on Sunday.

Alabama vs. Saint Mary’s moneyline odds analysis

The Crimson Tide enter this Round of 32 matchup against Saint Mary’s as a -230 favorite, while the Gaels are +190 underdogs on DraftKings.

Consider backing Saint Mary’s at +190 on Sunday since this should be a low-scoring game that makes the Crimson Tide extremely uncomfortable. After all, the Tide does not like to run their offense in the half-court.

Why Alabama could win as the favorite

Best odds: -230 at bet365

Alabama’s offensive attack is fast and relentless. The Crimson Tide rank first in adjusted tempo, first in points per game, and fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency, with All-American guard Mark Sears running the show.

Sears averages roughly 19 points, five assists, and three rebounds per game this season, but the Tide also has four other double-digit scorers, including Chris Youngblood, Aden Holloway, Grant Nelson, and Labaron Philon.

The key difference between last season’s team and the 2024-25 squad is defense and rim protection. The Crimson Tide are 34th in adjusted defensive efficiency despite playing at a lightning pace.

Omoruyi roams and protects the paint, allowing Alabama’s guards to press opposing guards on the perimeter.

Why Saint Mary’s could win as the underdog

Best odds: +190 at BetMGM

Saint Mary’s is a dangerous team because it can’t be rushed and will always play at the pace it wants. The Gaels rank 359th in adjusted tempo, slowing the game down to a snail’s pace. Not even Gonzaga can speed them up.

In fact, Saint Mary’s held Gonzaga, the second-highest-scoring team in the country, to fewer than 60 points in two of the three matchups this season.

While the Gaels are not much of an offensive threat, they rank seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency and hold opponents to the fourth-fewest points per game on the 15th-lowest effective field goal percentage nationally.

Saint Mary’s is also the top rebounding team in the country by the total rebounding rate metric due to its trio of frontcourt players: Luke Barrett, Mitchell Saxen, and Paulius Murauskas.

Those three players combine to pull down an astonishing 23 rebounds per game. If Saint Mary’s can dominate the glass and slow down the Tide, forcing them to play a half-court game, it could sneak into the Sweet 16.