U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s entry into the Alabama governor’s race, a subject of speculation that intensified this week, would set the stage for a high-stakes contest for his seat in Washington.

Among the potential candidates waiting on Tuberville’s decision are former Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill and former Alabama Department of Veterans Affairs Commissioner Kent Davis, who both say they might run.

Two other Republicans mentioned as possible candidates – Alabama Public Service Commission President Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh and former Congressional candidate Caroleene Dobson – say they are weighing their options.

Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall, a loyal advocate for the national GOP and President Trump, is among the first names mentioned by political insiders as a possible successor to Tuberville.

Marshall ended speculation that he might run for governor in December, saying he would not seek that office.

In March, during an interview on Alabama Public Television’s Capitol Journal, Marshall said a run for the Senate was possible, depending on what Tuberville does.

“If that seat comes open, the Senate’s been sort of an overlay interest for what I’ve had as attorney general, the work that we’ve done federally and the issues we’ve been involved with,” Marshall said.

“If that’s an open seat, I think we’ll be prepared to pivot quickly and make an announcement on whether or not we’d run.”

‘A long and expensive primary’

What must happen first, before any of the potential candidates commit, is an announcement by Tuberville.

In response to reports that he has told supporters he will run for governor, Tuberville said Thursday that he and his wife Suzanne are still praying about the decision.

Related: Where Tommy Tuberville lives may be the biggest question of the 2026 election

Tuberville’s next move will be pivotal in Alabama’s 2026 elections.

Brent Buchanan, founder and CEO of the polling firm Cygnal, said the former Auburn football coach is in a commanding position, with an extraordinary 74% favorability rating among Alabama Republicans.

If Tuberville does run for governor, Buchanan said he expects to see one to three self-funded candidates and one or two statewide elected officials in the Senate race.

Buchanan does not expect any of Alabama’s congressmen, whose House seats are safe, to run for the Senate.

“It’s going to be a long and expensive primary that’s too early to project or prognosticate on,” Buchanan said.

One Democratic candidate has already announced.

Kyle Sweetser of Mobile, a businessman and former two-time Donald Trump voter who bashed the president at last summer’s Democratic National Convention, announced his run earlier this month.

But the Republican nominee will be the heavy favorite in Alabama, where Democrats are rarely competitive in statewide campaigns.

The primary is May 26, 2026.

Battles brew as primary nears

Merrill has won two statewide races, for secretary of state in 2014 and 2018.

Before that, he served one term in the Alabama House of Representatives, representing a Tuscaloosa district.

Merrill said he might run for Tuberville’s seat if the senator runs for governor.

“That’s certainly one of the offices that I have on my list of offices I would consider being a candidate for in 2026 or at some other point in time,” Merrill said.

“And that job is one of the most important jobs in our state, is representing Alabama in Washington in a federal capacity.”

Merrill has considered two previous Senate races.

In June 2019, he announced he would run for the seat then held by Democrat Doug Jones. Merrill later dropped out when Jeff Sessions made a late entry into the race. Tuberville eventually won the nomination and beat Jones in the 2020 general election.

In 2021, when Sen. Richard Shelby announced he was retiring, Merrill was planning to enter the 2022 race to replace Shelby.

That changed when a woman disclosed an extramarital affair with Merrill, producing recordings to prove the encounters that Merrill had denied.

Merrill issued a public apology and announced he would not run.

Merrill said he has worked to restore the relationships he damaged.

“If somebody chooses to use that as their primary issue in their campaign against me, it’s obvious the reason that they would do that is they don’t have a record that they can stand on and they certainly don’t want to try to run against my record of public service as a legislator or as a secretary of state, where both of my records in public service are impeccable,” Merrill said.

“And I’ve already made amends for that. I’ve already made apologies to the parties involved and have continued to live my life in a way that would please individuals and please the Lord and that’s what I’m supposed to be doing as a Christian, and that’s what I’m going to continue to do.”

Merrill has said the same in previous interviews, including those about a public dispute with his successor as secretary of state, Wes Allen, over their differences in maintaining the state voter rolls.

Allen is in the race for lieutenant governor, a race Merrill has said he would also consider.

Allen issued a blunt public statement about Merrill, referring to his “obscene sodomy scandals.”

‘The political landscape is in flux’

Davis is a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral who served as commissioner of the Alabama Department of Veterans Affairs from January 2019 until until he was fired by Gov. Kay Ivey in October 2024.

The governor fired Davis after the State Board of Veterans Affairs voted down her request to do so. That followed a dispute between Ivey and Davis involving federal grants for mental health care and an ethics complaint that Davis filed against a member of Ivey’s cabinet.

Davis said the state board found no problems in his handling of the grants and said he believed he was obligated by law to file the ethics complaint, which was dismissed.

Davis said a number of people have been urging him to consider the Senate race if Tuberville runs for governor.

He said he believes he has the qualifications because of his experience in the armed services and in federal, state, and local government.

Davis, an Alabama native, began his Navy career as a supply corps officer aboard the battleship U.S.S. Missouri in 1986. He retired from the Navy in October 2016.

Davis worked as city manager for the city of Anniston from 2016 to 2017. He was deputy superintendent of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Center for Domestic Preparedness in Anniston from 2014 to 2016.

In 2012, Davis served as director of public affairs for U.S. detention operations in Afghanistan.

He worked as an attorney for the Department of Homeland Security and as a public affairs officer for the Navy Reserve.

“I’ve worked in government at federal, state and local levels, so I certainly know how government operates and can bring that wealth of experience,” Davis said.

“And I also, of course, have a lot of experience with Veterans Affairs. So literally I’ve worked directly with the three largest federal departments in Washington, D.C., including at two of the headquarters as an employee of those departments.”

Davis, who lives in Montgomery, said he is still considering other possible races next year.

“I’m waiting for the formal announcement from Senator Tuberville to see what’s going to happen,” Davis said. “Because of course that’s going to have ripple effects with a whole bunch of elections in Alabama.”

Cavanaugh was first elected to the Public Service Commission in 2010. Two years later, she defeated Lucy Baxley to become PSC president. Voters re-elected Cavanaugh in 2016, 2020, and 2024.

Cavanaugh ran for lieutenant governor in 2018, narrowly losing in a hotly contested Republican primary runoff to Will Ainsworth.

Asked whether she would consider a run for the Senate, Cavanaugh issued a short statement.

“Senator Tuberville has made it clear that he and his wife are still thinking about his political future, so this conversation is premature,” Cavanaugh said.

“Certainly the political landscape is in flux right now, and I will use this time to pray and have thoughtful conversations with my family and conservative friends to discern where I could best serve our state.”

Dobson is an attorney who won the Republican nomination in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional district last year, her first political race. She lost to Democratic nominee Shomari Figures in a district that was drawn by a federal court to favor Democrats.

Dobson said Friday that she is in the process of deciding whether to run for office again.

“Running for Congress last year was a life-changing experience – one for which I am truly grateful, and one that only deepened my desire to help make our already-great state even better,” Dobson said in an email. “Sometimes God opens a door and invites you to decide if you want to enter.

“My husband, Bobby, our children, and I are discussing whether our future is pointing us toward Washington or somewhere closer to home, and I hope to have a decision soon.”