Alabama-LSU offers most intriguing matchup in memory

Alabama-LSU offers most intriguing matchup in memory

Rarely in this Alabama-LSU rivalry does an early-November meeting come without intrigue.

For all the attention fans give the Crimson Tide blood feuds with Tennessee and Auburn, players always seemed more likely to identify LSU as the one they’d circle.

And this one’s checking all the boxes.

Of course, there’s the matter of last year’s game. That 32-31 overtime loss was an indictment of where things had slipped when combined with what happened at Tennessee three weeks earlier.

Well, the Crimson Tide got their pound of Vol flesh on Oct. 21 and had two weeks to stew over the scene from last November in Baton Rouge.

That, however, isn’t what makes this 6:45 p.m. CT showdown on CBS so captivating.

The rah-rah aspect is part of it but the pure contrast between these two teams makes this one so hard to predict.

We’re talking apples and coconuts here.

In the past, these programs generally flew in parallel lines with at least generally similar styles. There was the 2011 Game of the Century based more on defensive bruisers and straight-ahead ground games.

In 2015, you saw elite, long-striding running backs Leonard Fournette and Derrick Henry trade Heisman front-runner roles.

And in 2019, the shootout between quarterbacks Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa and their first-round receiver talent again made this game the center of college football’s orbit.

Now, four years later, you have the two poles of the sport meeting to decide who has the inside track to win the last SEC West Division title.

You have the nation’s best offense making the trip to Tuscaloosa to face a Crimson Tide defense that’s played as well as anyone since the Week 2 loss to Texas.

Conversely, LSU brings a beat-up defense that’s allowed stunning yardage and scoring allowances this season. We’re talking a program worst 706 yards surrendered in a 55-49 loss to an Ole Miss team that managed just 301 yards in a 24-10 loss to the Crimson Tide just seven days earlier.

But they’ll face the least consistent Alabama offense LSU’s seen wear crimson in years, one that ranks 80th in yards per game (366.6) and 51st in scoring (30.6 points per game).

It’ll look like a scrimmage where the first teams play when LSU has the ball with the second units face off when the Tide has it.

This dichotomy has just about everyone stumped.

Vegas has Alabama a 3-point favorite — pretty much accounting for the homefield advantage.

The computer model built by the fellas at CollegeFootballNerds.com have it as close to a dead heat as possible. With all the data tossed in the bowl, it spit out a projection of Alabama 33.8, LSU 33.2.

And the CFBGraphs advanced stats analysis gives Alabama a more favorable forecast with a 29.42 to 24.59 projected points projection. Tide win probability: 61.38%.

Expert picks from writers at ESPN, CBS Sports, The Athletic and 247Sports were generally split over who’d survive this one.

At this keyboard, have to say this one’s as close to a coin toss as we’ve seen.

If this turns into a shootout, advantage LSU.

Tennessee started fast but couldn’t finish two weeks ago in Alabama’s 34-20 win. Should LSU fire out of the gates with the same speed, it’s harder to picture the Tide keeping pace with this explosive Tiger offense. Recall this same Jayden Daniels-led group wore down the Tide defense in the final stretches last year, scoring on each of the last three full possessions including the overtime two-point conversion.

This is a Tiger offense that’s scored no less than 48 points in each of the last four games facing an Alabama offense whose high-water scoring mark is 40 in conference play.

At the same time, LSU’s beat-up secondary leaves itself vulnerable to the home-run threat that’s kept the Crimson Tide’s title hopes alive. This is an LSU defense that’s allowed the 97th-most passing plays of 30-plus yards (15) facing an Alabama offense with 16 of those (ranked 33rd) and 11 of more than 40 yards (ranked 9th).

And yet memories of Alabama’s Week 2 loss to Texas remain. The Tide was beat on deep balls from a quarterback with similar receiver talent as LSU but without the running threat Daniels presents.

We could go on all day and convince ourselves of every possible outcome in the wide spectrum in play here.

Bottom line: It’ll take that elusive 60-minute game this Alabama team’s been chasing since Labor Day Weekend to survive this round of bloody knuckles.

But where Alabama’s revenge round with Tennessee didn’t present the same on-paper interest, this latest round of the Crimson Tide-Bengal Tiger rivalry has everyone equally stumped and intrigued.

That’s what’ll make this Saturday night in the snake pit of Bryant-Denny Stadium the prime-time focus of the college football world once again.

Michael Casagrande is a reporter for the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @ByCasagrande or on Facebook.