This is an opinion column.

I’m telling you now: Tommy Tuberville will be Alabama’s next governor.

When Alabamians venture beyond the state lines in 2027 and curious outsiders ask how the state hired a coach once fired by Auburn to be its leader, the answer may be a short one.

There was no one else on the ballot.

Qualifying doesn’t close until February, but this thing might have been done a week ago, when the closest person Tuberville had to a Republican primary opponent — Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth — dropped out before ever dropping in.

Ainsworth’s decision followed a decade spent preparing to run. I mean, good Lord, one party Ainsworth threw at Top Golf in 2019 had to cost more than most Alabama House races.

But now that Tuberville’s in, Ainsworth’s plans to widen I-65 will have to wait, maybe forever. No one else — no one serious, anyway — on the Republican side seems ready for a fight.

And Democrats? We’ll get to them in a second.

The argument for Tuberville’s inevitability is pretty simple.

First, he has nearly universal name ID, perhaps better than Gov. Kay Ivey who will be Alabama’s longest-consecutively-serving governor when she finishes her term.

Second, he appears to be in good graces with Donald Trump, at least as long as he polls well and insists Jan. 6 was an inside job.

Third, he can raise money. The magic trick of inevitability is that it’s a self-reinforcing thing. Special interest groups have to ply him with cash now so they can ask him for favors later. If that doesn’t work for Tuberville, there are probably enough folks in DC who will support his campaign just to get him out of the Senate.

Finally, he’s a Republican, and many Alabama voters will support him over a Democrat no matter who shows up on the other side of the ballot.

Whether he lives in Alabama or understands how its government functions are secondary concerns. This is, after all, a man who got elected to the U. S. Senate without knowing the three branches of the federal government.

Outsiders might look at this non-election and assume that Alabama is getting what it wants. However, that assumption would be a mistake.

If the polls shared with me in the last few months mean anything, Tuberville has somewhere between 51 and 55 percent support among likely Republican primary voters.

That’s strong support, but it also means nearly half of Republicans said they want to consider other options first.

They’re just not going to get any.

Even if you assume Alabama Republicans outnumber Alabama Democrats almost two-to-one, you have a majority of Alabamians who might prefer someone else — if only they could agree on the same someone else.

But don’t count on Democrats to give them that someone.

The last time Alabamians went to the polls, Democrats didn’t give them many options, much less good ones. In 2022, the party didn’t field candidates for lieutenant governor, treasurer, auditor or either of the two Public Service Commission seats up for grabs. The party’s candidate for governor, Yolanda Flowers, raised only $12,445 to finance her campaign.

You couldn’t cover the bar tab at Ainsworth’s Top Golf party with that.

When Alabamians arrive at their polling places next year, it’s likely they will face a familiar choice again, which is to say, none at all.

That’s not especially new. This is a state where congressional districts and nearly the entire state legislative map have been drawn to ensure a winner long before voters form a line in November.

Yes, there’s still that whole thing with his residency. Tuberville owns a very nice home on the Florida coast, and there’s reason to suspect he might still live there.

But this is not a self-correcting system. The last guy who got busted running in a place where he didn’t live made it through the election and into office before he went to jail.

We’re more likely to see Tuberville’s hand on a Bible on the state capitol steps before we see him swear an oath in a courtroom.

Tuberville’s ascendancy isn’t the end of choice in Alabama. Choice died a long time ago. It’s the illusion of choice we’re watching die this time.

Such is life in a Russia-style democracy, where elections technically happen but the outcomes are known months or years before polls open, before qualifying ends.

Or this time, before qualifying ever started.

But I still believe there’s an opportunity here for someone. I still think there is hope for another outcome.

Because if there’s one thing Alabamians hate most, it’s being told what to do. They’ll fight against it just to show you. Just to prove they can.

And I’m telling you again: Tommy Tuberville will be Alabama’s next governor.