Alabama Gov. Tommy Tuberville? Senator will be ‘overwhelming favorite’ if he runs in 2026

U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville has left the door cracked on a potential run for governor of Alabama next year while emphasizing that his main goal is to advance President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda as part of a new Republican majority in the Senate.

The former Auburn head football coach, elected in 2020 on his first run for political office, told reporters last week that he has not necessarily enjoyed his time in Washington but looked forward to the next two years.

“You never say never on anything; okay, because things change,” Tuberville said about the governor’s race.

“But I’m fixing to put my heart and soul into the next two years of getting this country back for the people of Alabama and the people of the United States of America.”

Tuberville’s name recognition from a decade at Auburn, and his alliance with Trump, would make him hard to beat in any statewide race, experts say, but they expect he will run for reelection to the Senate and not for governor.

There are no announced candidates for governor to replace Gov. Kay Ivey, who cannot seek a third term. Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth said he is considering the race and will make an announcement after the legislative session in May, which will be one year before the Republican primary.

Alabama Agriculture and Industries Commissioner Rick Pate, twice elected to that position, has said he would consider a run for governor.

Former Alabama Department of Veterans Affairs Commissioner Kent Davis, a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral, has said he would consider a run for governor or another statewide office.

Read more: Will Alabama elect a political outsider governor in 2026? Trump’s victory makes anything possible

A snapshot of Tuberville’s popularity emerged a few days ago when the Dothan Area Chamber of Commerce asked its members to choose from among potential candidates for governor.

Tuberville led with 49%, followed by Ainsworth with 33%, Pate with 11%, and 4% for Lindy Blanchard, who ran second to Ivey in the 2022 Republican primary. Blanchard was U.S. ambassador to Slovenia during Trump’s first term.

Jonathan Gray, an Alabama political consultant, said he knows of no reason that Tuberville would run for governor instead of the Senate.

“It would be borderline absurd for the senior senator from Alabama who has a close personal relationship with the president of the United States to consider leaving that job to be governor in a state where the Legislature controls all the power,” Gray said. “I just don’t see that happening.”

Gray said speculation that Tuberville might run for governor surfaced during the months preceding the election in November partly because of polls showing Tuberville’s high name recognition and favorability among Republican voters.

That speculation diminished after Trump’s win over Kamala Harris, and Gray listed the reasons.

“A, the Senate has a Republican majority now,” Gray said. “B, the president of the United States is Donald Trump, he’s a Republican. C, that Republican happens to be a good, close friend of Tommy Tuberville’s. They have stayed in touch. They are seen together.”

“Why would you leave that job?” Gray said.

Tuberville’s press office sends out multiple news releases most days about how Tuberville will try to help Trump and the Republican majority undo what they see as poor policy decisions by the Biden administration.

In a newsletter on Friday, Tuberville hailed the return of Trump to the White House as the start of a a “Golden Age” for the nation.

“The nightmare is almost over,” Tuberville wrote. “The sun will rise on America. Greatness awaits us if we answer the call of the American people.”

Brent Buchanan, president and founder of the polling and public affairs firm Cygnal, said a poll his company did a year ago for Alabama Daily News showed 63% of Republican primary voters had a favorable opinion of Tuberville, compared to 26% unfavorable.

Buchanan said most of those with an unfavorable opinion of the former Auburn coach were Alabama fans, a factor he said might have worn off a bit.

“Sixty-three percent favorability is incredibly strong,” Buchanan said.

What would that mean if Tuberville decided to run for governor?

“He’d be an overwhelming favorite,” Buchanan said. “That doesn’t mean nobody can catch up to him. To use a football analogy, he’s starting on the opponent’s 30-yard line, and anybody else would be starting on their own 10.”

Buchanan does not expect Tuberville to run for governor and said there’s no evidence to suggest that. He said there’s a reason that politicians do not definitively rule out a potential race with comments such as “never say never.”

“What we all have to remember is that politicians have to remain relevant. And it’s smart to stay in a conversation,” Buchanan said.

Tuberville is often at the center of political conversations, in Alabama and nationwide.

Tuberville recently told reporters California does not “deserve” any money to help with the wildfires raging in Los Angeles “unless they show that they’re gonna change their ways.” The statement was mocked by Daily Show host Jon Stewart.

Still, Buchanan said he would “be beyond shocked if (Tuberville) ran for governor.”

Gray said Tuberville’s popularity with Republicans might be at its peak now in the wake of Trump’s election and the spotlight on the GOP’s effort to reverse Biden-era policies. He said Tuberville could easily win a second six-year term in the Senate in 2026, and that’s what he’s expecting.

If Tuberville made what Gray considers a highly unlikely decision to run for governor instead, the race would not be close, Gray said.

“In a Republican primary, he could slaughter everybody else,” Gray said. “There could be 10 people in the race and there wouldn’t be a runoff.”