Alabama remains in a nearly statewide drought, and it may not be going away in the near future.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report, which was released last Thursday, nearly all of Alabama is in some stage of drought or on the verge of drought.

The hardest-hit areas are in southwest Alabama and north Alabama, which are in what’s called extreme drought or Level 3 out of 4, according to the Drought Monitor.

Most of the rest of Alabama is either in Level 2 or 1 drought, with only a small area in eastern Alabama experiencing no drought conditions at all.

And it’s getting worse.

“The drought is rapidly intensifying in north Alabama and continuing in south Alabama,” said Dr. Lee Ellenburg, Associate State Climatologist for Alabama. One of Ellenburg’s jobs is to examine drought information from across the state and give his recommendation to the U.S. Drought Monitor authors, who then make the weekly drought map, which is released every Thursday.

October is typically the driest month on average in Alabama. But this past summer was also very hot and on the dry side, Ellenburg said.

“People remember in back August and late July we had really high temperatures, especially in south Alabama, and we had just a lack of rainfall,” he said.

“That continued into the September-October timeframe, that time of year is typically our drier time of the year anyway. But the fact that we entered our dry period already hot and dry has really ballooned drought conditions. Right now the current state of conditions across Alabama is we have some pretty extreme drought entering north Alabama at kind of a rapid pace and that’s just because of coming in from September and October — many areas haven’t seen more than a quarter inch in a couple weeks. That’s very (unsusual) for Alabama.”

Ellenburg said on average Alabama needs 3 to 4 inches of rain a month to stay out of drought. The months of September and October can be a feast or famine period when it comes to rain. If Alabama has to deal with a tropical system moving off the Gulf of Mexico then rain totals during that timeframe can be much higher.

But if the Gulf is quiet, which it has been this hurricane season, Alabama may only see 1.5 inches during September and October.

And 2023 has seen even less than that, according to Ellenburg.

“Right now the current state of conditions across Alabama is we have some pretty extreme drought entering north Alabama at kind of a rapid pace, and that’s just because of coming in from September and October — many areas haven’t seen more than a quarter inch in a couple weeks. That’s very (unsusual) for Alabama.

“In a lot of cases in south Alabama we’re 5, 6, 7, even 8 inches below normal for the fall and in the past 6 months,” he said.

Drought conditions don’t only make gardens and landscaping wither and sent water bills through the roof.

It has also created [prime conditions for wildfires, and there is a fire alert in effect for all of Alabama’s 67 counties.

In the 32 northern counties (roughly north of Interstate 20), no burn permits will be issued, according to the Alabama Forestry Commission. In the 35 southern counties (south of Interstate 20), certified prescribed burn managers will have the option to obtain a one-day burn permit.

According to the Commission anyone who burns a field, grassland, or woodland without a burn permit may be subject to prosecution.

Farmers battling the drought

Agriculture has also been particularly hard hit during this drought.

“We’re actually seeing some pretty big impacts to peanuts in south Alabama, the late-planted cotton in south Alabama, those are going to have some pretty rough impacts on the yields,” Ellenburg said. “In fact the peanut harvest was essentially kind of rushed because it was drying out so quickly, and sometimes the farmers were not even able to get their plows to dig in to harvest the peanuts because the ground was so hard.”

Ellenburg added that there are reports of pretty significant loss of yield in peanuts and cotton in south Alabama.

Pastures are also showing the effects of the drought. “The other big agriculture impact this time of year is if the pasture land gets really crispy and dry a lot of cattle producers will have to buy hay,” Ellenburg said. “We’ve seen a lot of supplemental hay buying.”

Farmers are also running into difficulties planting their fall crops, and the impact of that will be felt in the spring and early summer.

How does this drought compare?

Droughts are nothing new in Alabama, but it’s not that often they become this intense.

The most recent higher-level drought that many Alabamians may remember came in 2016 — the same year that wildfires devastated parts of Gatlinburg, Tenn.

Alabama is not at those drought levels — yet, Ellenburg said.

“We’re approaching those same conditions. The 2016 drought was different in that we were a bit hotter and we were in drought for a bit longer but the same level of intensity — we’re approaching that right now,” he said.

“If we don’t get rain in the next couple of weeks, and a good amount, then we could start seeing conditions that are somewhat similar to 2016.”

The most devastating recent droughts for Alabama came in 2012 and 2007.

” … those were big, multi-season droughts where we’re in D3, D4 for months at a time,” Ellenburg said. “So what we’re seeing here is not quite as disastrous as that. Eventually it’s going to rain again. But at least in the next few weeks I do think we’re going to see some conditions similar to what 2016 was. I’m not saying we’re going to have Gatlinburg wildfires again, but this is the type of a situation where these kind of events could occur.”

Any hope in sight?

The big question is: When will the drought end?

“It’s a loaded question but it is one everyone wants to know, and there is no crystal ball. I’m not one that’s going to put a certain amount of certainty on a forecast because I understand how uncertain they can be,” Ellenburg said.

“But the general thought is that eventually the pattern will shift. It is going to rain again; this is Alabama. I’ve looked at the two-week forecast, and the two-week forecast is not looking very good. These fronts are going to come through but they will not have much moisture with them.”

The National Weather Service expects Alabama to get some rain Thursday through Saturday. While it’s not expected to be a drought-ending rain, it could result in a half-inch to three-quarters of an inch for some parts of the state.

However, there is some hope on the horizon in the form of El Nino.

“We do expect El Nino to increase every month. And this pattern shift typically brings a bit more rainfall to south Alabama during an El Nino, especially a strong one,” Ellenburg said.

“So we do expect a pattern shift at some point, but at least in the few weeks ahead it’s not showing it.”