AL.com NFL mock draft: First round gets offensive
The 89th NFL Draft starts at 7 p.m. CDT Thursday, and Chicago has yet to announce which player it will choose at No. 1, although Bears general manager Ryan Poles said he’s already made the decision.
The consensus outside the Bears says Chicago will pick Southern Cal quarterback Caleb Williams, and then the only thing certain to happen during the draft’s first round will start – trades.
Last year’s draft featured seven first-round trades. Four of the top six picks were traded, including one twice.
One day before the first pick is made, here’s a first-round prediction, and it’s heavily offensive (that is, 21 of the players come from the offensive side) and includes some yet-to-be made trades:
1. Southern Cal quarterback Caleb Williams by the Chicago Bears
The Bears cleared the way for their new quarterback by sending Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Williams is the Day 1 starter.
2. North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye by the Washington Commanders
Washington will decide between Maye and Jayden Daniels, the Heisman Trophy winner from LSU. Daniels has emerged as the favorite of oddsmakers to go at No. 2. But Maye has been extensively studied by new Commanders general manager Adam Peters even before he moved into his present post. Peters also was on San Francisco’s staff when the 49ers began to thrive with stand-and-deliver Brock Purdy under center.
3. LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels by the Minnesota Vikings (from the New England Patriots)
Minnesota didn’t get that extra first-round pick so it could add the fifth-best offensive tackle available. The Vikings have to overpay to move up, but for the 11th, 23rd and 129th choices in this year’s draft and a second-rounder in next year’s, Minnesota has a new quarterback.
4. Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. by the Arizona Cardinals
Hollywood Brown led the Arizona wide receivers in 2023 with 574 receiving yards, and he’s with the Kansas City Chiefs now. Harrison had 174 receptions for 2,474 yards and 28 touchdowns in the past two seasons for the Buckeyes.
5. LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers by the Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers escaped salary-cap purgatory by trading six-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Keenan Allen to the Chicago Bears for a fourth-round draft choice and releasing two-time 1,000-yard receiver Mike Williams. If that wasn’t enough to pick a top-flight wide-receiver prospect here, Los Angeles has only four wide receivers on its roster.
6. Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze by the Buffalo Bills (from the New York Giants)
Why don’t the Giants just take Odunze? Because the Bills are desperate to get a wide receiver for Josh Allen and New York hasn’t exactly batted 1.000 on wide-receiver evaluations in taking one in the top 75 picks in each of the past three drafts. Buffalo forks over the 28th, 60th and 133rd choices in this year’s draft and its 2025 first-round pick to move up. This concludes the big-three quarterbacks/big-three wide receivers portion of the draft in six picks.
7. Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt by the Tennessee Titans
The Titans’ offseason makeover continues in the draft with their new left offensive tackle.
8. Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner by the Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are out of the quarterback sweepstakes after signing Kirk Cousins in free agency. Atlanta also signed wide receiver Darnell Mooney, a former Gadsden City High School standout, as a wide-receiver upgrade. That gives the Falcons the opportunity to make the first selection on defense of the 2024 draft.
9. Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy II by the Cincinnati Bengals (from the Chicago Bears)
This could not possibly happen, right? Buffalo, Green Bay, Philadelphia – they trade up. Not the Bengals. And if Cincinnati did trade up, it would be for Georgia tight end Brock Bowers. But the Bengals have 10 selections in the 2024 draft. What’s the use of having all that draft capital if you don’t get the players you want? Murphy won’t be there when the Bengals pick at No. 18. Chicago has four picks this week. After using one and trading No. 9 to Cincinnati for the 18th, 49th and 115th choices, the Bears have six more picks to make now.
10. Georgia tight end Brock Bowers by the New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers does not hate tight ends, no matter what the Internet says. He’s going to love this one.
11. Penn State offensive tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu by the New England Patriots (from the Minnesota Vikings)
This is where the Patriots get their quarterback, and it’s J.J. McCarthy of Michigan. It’s like destiny. The second coming of Tom Brady from the Land of Wolverines. Except New England has the opportunity to do something about left tackle.
12. Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy by the Denver Broncos
Didn’t the Broncos just trade for a quarterback? When his old team is paying half his salary to get rid of him, it makes you wonder if he’s really going to be your 2024 starter. Here’s another candidate that Denver thought it might need to trade up to get.
13. Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold by the Philadelphia Eagles (from the Las Vegas Raiders)
Are the seasons starting to catch up to Philadelphia cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry, a former Pleasant Grove High School and Samford standout? The Eagles gave up more passing yards and more TD passes than every team except the Washington Commanders in 2023. Yes, Philadelphia has a lot of young cornerbacks, but for the 22nd, 53rd and 161st selections in this year’s draft, the Eagles get a scheme-fit cornerback who can play in the slot.
14. Oregon State offensive tackle Taliese Fuaga by the New Orleans Saints
With uncertainty about the health of right tackle Ryan Ramczyk and dissatisfaction with the performance of left tackle Trevor Penning, the Saints take Fuaga.
15. Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell by the Indianapolis Colts
The Colts gave up the most points in the AFC last season, so it’s either Mitchell or pass-rushers Jared Verse of Florida State or Laiatu Latu of UCLA here.
16. Florida State edge rusher Jared Verse by the Seattle Seahawks
After the Colts pass on a pass-rusher, the Seahawks go with one over Alabama offensive tackle J.C. Latham, a decision made a little easier by the return of tackle George Fant via free agency.
17. Clemson cornerback Nate Wiggins by the Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars go for secondary improvement over getting QB Trevor Lawrence another wide receiver. It’s a deep draft for wide receivers.
18. UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu by the Arizona Cardinals (via the Chicago Bears from the Cincinnati Bengals)
The Bears got this pick from the Bengals in exchange for No. 9. With 11 picks overall and six in the top 90 selections, the Cardinals can control this draft. Arizona wants a pass-rusher, and it doesn’t want it to be Chop Robinson at No. 27. For the 27th, 66th and 226th selections, Arizona gets Latu instead. And the Bears, who started the day with four picks, now have seven left to make.
19. LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. by the Carolina Panthers (from the Los Angeles Rams)
With the big-three pass-rushers off the board, the Rams bypass their opportunity to pick in the first round for the first time since 2016 in exchange for the 33rd, 65th and 101st selections. The Panthers get a target (who would have gone to the Pittsburgh Steelers with the next selection) for QB Bryce Young, and Los Angeles GM Les Snead has 13 picks left in this year’s draft to wheel and deal on Friday and Saturday.
20. Texas wide receiver Adonai Mitchell by the Pittsburgh Steelers
Which does Pittsburgh need more to make its signing of quarterback Russell Wilson a success: A stronger offensive line or a receiver to pair with former Hoover High School standout George Pickens? After dumping wide receiver Diontae Johnson to the Carolina Panthers, the Steelers go with the pass-catcher. Wilson still has good mobility.
21. Oregon center Jackson Powers-Johnson by the Miami Dolphins
A little high for a center? The Dolphins are trying to get a line that will stay on the field in front of Tua Tagovailoa, so they’re hoping Powers-Johnson’s injuries are behind him.
22. Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. by the Las Vegas Raiders (from the Philadelphia Eagles)
The Raiders get a quarterback and two extra draft picks from trading down with the Eagles.
23. Oregon quarterback Bo Nix by the New England Patriots (from the Minnesota Vikings)
OK, New England didn’t get Jayden Daniels. But by trading down, the Patriots have an offensive tackle, an extra pick this week, a second-round selection next year and a quarterback with 61 college starts and big hands.
24. Alabama offensive tackle J.C. Latham by the Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys took some hits on the offensive line in free agency. Tackle isn’t their first need, but they weren’t expecting to see Latham here. And he might just end up at guard.
25. Duke offensive lineman Graham Barton by the Green Bay Packers
The Packers love versatile offensive linemen, and Barton is a five-position prospect.
26. Alabama cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry by the Las Vegas Raiders (from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Tampa Bay didn’t have first-round grades on 26 players. Likely no team does. So the Bucs are open for business and, in exchange for the 44th, 77th and 112th picks, lets Las Vegas back into the first round for a cornerback. Tampa Bay now has five selections on the draft’s second day.
27. Penn State edge rusher Chop Robinson by the Chicago Bears (from the Arizona Cardinals)
The Bears’ trade-back strategy pays its first dividend.
28. Iowa cornerback Cooper DeJean by the New York Giants (from the Buffalo Bills)
The Giants used a first-round pick on a cornerback last season, and Deonte Banks started 15 games. Here’s a partner.
29. Illinois defensive tackle Johnny Newton by the Detroit Lions
The Lions mastered the draft last year, and they start off right this time around with a culture fit where they need it.
30. Washington offensive tackle Troy Fautanu by the Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens lost right tackle Morgan Moses in free agency and have left tackle Ronnie Stanley entering the final season of his contract. But they have patiently played the game and get a top-half talent in the bottom half of the round.
31. Georgia offensive tackle Amarius Mims by the San Francisco 49ers
When football historians look back at the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, they will say: That was a lot of offensive tackles. Yes, it will be.
32. Oklahoma offensive tackle Tyler Guyton by the Kansas City Chiefs
Obviously, the Chiefs are going to take a replacement for cornerback L’Jarius Sneed or bring in Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy, a guy even Patrick Mahomes can’t overthrow. Kansas City has been making picks to prepare for Sneed’s departure for the past two years, and the signing of free agent Hollywood Brown filled the speed receiver role. Kansas City makes a practical pick.
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Mark Inabinett is a sports reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter at @AMarkG1.