AL.com NFL mock draft 2: Trades to shake up first round

AL.com NFL mock draft 2: Trades to shake up first round

NFL mock drafts are futile bits of fun that have their irrelevance magnified by the way most are structured: They project the picks in the current order of selection, and that will almost assuredly not be the way the teams line up to make their choices in the first round on April 27 in Kansas City, Missouri.

Last year, nine trades on draft night changed the order of selection in the first round.

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This year, seven teams already are picking in a slot not secured by their won-lost record in the 2022 season, starting at the top with the Carolina Panthers having obtained the No. 1 pick from the Chicago Bears, and the Miami Dolphins won’t make the No. 21 pick at all. The Dolphins had to forfeit the selection as punishment for violating the NFL’s tampering rules.

That’s just the start. AL.com’s first mock draft did an as-they-stand list of projections. But for mock draft No. 2, there are eight trades projected that will shake up who goes where in the first round.

The 88th NFL Draft will be held April 27 through 29 at Union Station in Kansas City. The second and third rounds will be held on April 28, with the fourth through seventh rounds following on April 29.

The 32 NFL teams will pick 259 players in the 2023 draft. A look at the players who could be selected in the first round and trades that might be made:

No. 1: Alabama quarterback Bryce Young by the Carolina Panthers

The Panthers obtained the No. 1 pick from the Bears to select their quarterback for the next decade. While they’ve acknowledged considering four, two seem more ready to play – Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Alabama’s Bryce Young. Might this come down to coach Frank Reich trying to convince owner David Tepper not to pick the QB who is almost 6 inches shorter than the team’s head coach, with general manager Scott Fitterer the man in the middle? The Heisman Trophy still carries cachet, and the Panthers are raising season-ticket prices in 2023 after five consecutive losing seasons.

No. 2: Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud by the Houston Texans

After the Panthers make their decision, the Texans get the other quarterback and the opportunity to say he was the one they wanted all the time. With 12 draft choices, Houston also has the opportunity to play it slick, draft Alabama outside linebacker Will Anderson Jr. and trade back into the first round for a quarterback after the Indianapolis Colts pick Stroud at No. 4. The Texans decide not to overthink it.

No. 3: Alabama outside linebacker Will Anderson Jr. by the Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals’ pass rush wasn’t bad last season, but they did have a bad pass defense. Only one team gave up more touchdown passes and only one team yielded a better passing-efficiency rating to opposing quarterbacks than Arizona in 2022. Anderson will help there, but he also could be the most impactful non-quarterback in the draft. Sure, Arizona would like to trade down, but if it goes past the fifth choice, it will miss Anderson. The Cardinals can’t take that chance.

No. 4: Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson by the Tennessee Titans after a draft-night trade with the Indianapolis Colts

Here’s where the Colts are supposed to take a quarterback. But are Florida’s Anthony Richardson or Kentucky’s Will Levis worth the No. 4 pick? What if Indianapolis has something else up its sleeve? The Titans send the 11th and 41st selections in this year’s draft to the Colts to move up to No. 4. With an offseason of handwringing over Ryan Tannenhill already under way and Malik Willis slighted by the team down the stretch in 2022, Tennessee goes for a jumbo backfield, pairing the 6-foot-4, 244-pound Richardson with running back Derrick Henry for an ultimate short-yardage/goal-line package.

No. 5: Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter by the New York Jets after a draft-night trade with the Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have made a lot of noise about choosing a quarterback with this draft choice obtained from the Denver Broncos in last year’s trade of QB Russell Wilson, aiming to get a QB-hungry team to come get the pick. Instead, Seattle gets a team interested in the best player available, never mind any off-the-field complications, as the Jets send their second- and fourth-round picks in the 2024 draft to the Seahawks. It might seem nervy for New York to make this trade when it hasn’t even completed the deal for Aaron Rodgers, but the Jets weren’t giving up their first-round pick in that deal anyway. New York is about to sign defensive tackle Quinnen Williams to a big contract, but it also has a defensive-minded head coach who likes a stout D-line and uses a lot of defensive linemen.

No. 6: Texas Tech outside linebacker Tyree Wilson by New Orleans Saints after a draft-night trade with the Detroit Lions

An outside linebacker for the Red Raiders, Wilson could turn into a defensive end with an impressive wingspan for the Saints, who send the 29th and 40th picks in this year’s draft plus a 2024 second-round selection to jump ahead 23 slots in the first round. Cameron Jordan isn’t getting any younger.

No. 7: Illinois cornerback Devon Witherspoon by the Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders decide they’re good at quarterback with Witherspoon available at No. 7. Las Vegas finished tied for last in interceptions and only one team broke up fewer passes than the Raiders in the 2022 season. The former Pensacola prep star has a knack for finding the football.

No. 8: Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez by the Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons also sidestep Kentucky QB Will Levis to address a defense that was bottom 10 in the NFL in points allowed, yards allowed, rushing yards allowed and passing yards allowed in 2022. Pairing Gonzalez with A.J. Terrell in the secondary will give Atlanta an all-first-round pair of cornerbacks.

No. 9: Northwestern offensive tackle Peter Skoronski by the Chicago Bears

No team in the NFL had its quarterbacks sacked at a higher rate than Chicago in the 2022 season.

No. 10: Georgia offensive tackle Broderick Jones by the New England Patriots after a draft-night trade with the Philadelphia Eagles

What’s wrong with New England quarterback Mac Jones? How about a sub-standard offensive line? The Patriots have 11 draft picks, and Philadelphia has six. The Eagles gain one by picking up No. 76 to move back to the 14th pick.

No. 11: Ohio State offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr. by the Indianapolis Colts after a draft-night trade with the Tennessee Titans

After moving into this slot by trading the No. 4 pick to the Titans on draft night, the Colts look like geniuses because they can still pick Kentucky quarterback Will Levis here. Except they don’t. Indianapolis had the NFL’s best offensive line for three seasons, then left tackle Anthony Castonzo retired after the 2020 campaign. They did all right with Eric Fisher at left tackle in 2021, but then it went all to pieces up front for the Colts in 2022. Indianapolis needs a pick to stabilize its O-line and get left guard Quenton Nelson, center Ryan Kelly and right tackle Braden Smith playing up to their standard again.

No. 12: TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston by the Houston Texans

The Texans got a quarterback with the second selection. Now they get C.J. Stroud a big, vertical target after trading Brandin Cooks to the Dallas Cowboys.

No. 13: Clemson defensive end Myles Murphy by the Seattle Seahawks after a draft-night trade with the New York Jets

The Seahawks could have sat tight at No. 5 and selected Texas Tech outside linebacker Tyree Wilson. Instead, the draft-night trade that moved them down eight spots still netted a pass-rusher and stocked their draft larder for next year.

No. 14: Alabama safety Brian Branch by the Philadelphia Eagles after a draft-night trade with New England Patriots

The Eagles have been on a hot streak with former Alabama players over the past three drafts. Quarterback Jalen Hurts, wide receiver DeVonta Smith and guard Landon Dickerson have been dead-center hits. Philadelphia lost its starting safeties in free agency, and Branch could be a slot corner, too.

No. 15: Southern Cal wide receiver Jordan Addison by the Green Bay Packers

The Packers are moving to a new quarterback in 2023. Their top wide receiver currently under contract for 2023 had 611 receiving yards in 2022.

No. 16: Kentucky quarterback Will Levis by the Minnesota Vikings after a draft-night trade with the Washington Commanders

Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins is not under contract after the 2023 season, which will be his sixth with the team. Maybe the time has come to transition to another signal-caller in 2024. The football rockets out of Levis’ hand, and that gets Minnesota to send the 23rd and 211th picks in this year’s draft plus a 2024 second-round choice to Washington during the first round.

No. 17: Penn State cornerback Joey Porter Jr. by the Pittsburgh Steelers

After losing cornerback Cameron Sutton in free agency, the Steelers make a legacy pick. The cornerback’s father played linebacker in eight seasons for Pittsburgh.

No. 18: Iowa defensive end Lukas Van Ness by the Detroit Lions

After using the second selection in the 2022 draft on Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson and getting 9.5 sacks from the rookie, the Lions go for another Big Ten pass-rusher to bring the heat opposite Hutchinson.

No. 19: Tennessee offensive tackle Darnell Wright by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If the Bucs aren’t going to re-sign Donovan Smith, adding Jones would allow them to follow through on their decision to move Tristan Wirfs from right tackle to left tackle. Wirfs has been a Pro Bowler at right tackle the past two seasons. Wright played both sides at Tennessee, but he played right tackle as a senior and is considered a better NFL prospect there.

No. 20: Florida guard O’Cyrus Torrence by the Seattle Seahawks

Torrence’s addition would allow free-agent signee Evan Brown to play center, as he has for most of his career, and put a lot of size into the Seahawks’ run game.

No. 21: Texas running back Bijan Robinson by the Los Angeles Chargers

With the Chargers and running back Austin Ekeler on the outs, Los Angeles gets another do-it-all talent for its backfield.

No. 22: Pittsburgh defensive tackle Calijah Kancey by the Los Angeles Rams after a draft-night trade with the Baltimore Ravens

With the Ravens holding five picks entering this year’s draft, Baltimore general manager Eric DeCosta said he hoped to be able to pick up some more. How about the 36th, 77th, 167th and 171st to let the Rams make a first-round pick this year? Los Angeles has done quite well with Aaron Donald at defensive tackle, so getting another Pittsburgh defensive tackle with an explosive get-off looks like something the Rams know about.

No. 23: Georgia cornerback Kelee Ringo by the Washington Commanders after a draft-night trade with the Minnesota Vikings

The Commanders are picking here after dropping back from No. 16 in a draft-night trade and add a big, fast cornerback.

No. 24: Michigan cornerback D.J. Turner by the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars probably wanted an offensive tackle, but by not trading up, they have the choice of taking the fifth offensive tackle of the first round, the fifth cornerback of the first round or the best player available. Jacksonville goes with the fastest player at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine, figuring the quality of offensive tackle that they can get with the 56th pick won’t be much off that what they’d get here.

No. 25: Minnesota center John Michael Schmitz by the New York Giants

New York lost in free agency both players who started at center in 2022, and Schmitz is plug-and-play.

No. 26: Clemson defensive lineman Bryan Bresee by the Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas defense can be pretty disruptive around the edges. Bresee would put some of that in the middle, too.

No. 27: Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker by the Indianapolis Colts after a draft-night trade with the Buffalo Bills

The Colts were playing the long game in the first round, and here use the 41st selection that they got from the Tennessee Titans to move out of the fourth pick earlier on draft night, couple it with the 79th selection and move back into the first round to get a quarterback – one that perhaps more closely mirrors the one that new coach Shane Steichen worked with the previous two seasons as the offensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles than the two that were supposed to be the choices at No. 4. The Colts imported Gardner Minshew from the Eagles as a QB placeholder, so Hooker can work his way back from a knee injury and come to grips with the demands of the NFL in 2023.

No. 28: Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer by the Cincinnati Bengals

The three tight ends on Cincinnati’s offseason roster caught 12 passes during the 2022 season. Fortunately for the Bengals, this draft has three or four tight ends worth first-round consideration. Cincinnati takes the best blocker of the trio.

No. 29: Boston College wide receiver Zay Flowers by the Detroit Lions after a draft-night trade with the New Orleans Saints

Picking here instead of sixth in exchange for this choice and a couple of second-round selections from the Saints, the Lions opt for a wide receiver with their second first-round pick for the second year in a row. Last year, Detroit took Alabama’s Jameson Williams after adding Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. This year, the Lions have taken another pass-rusher, Iowa’s Lukas Van Ness, at No. 18. Flowers’ get-open ability from the slot will allow Amon-Ra St. Brown to concentrate on playing split end, with Williams as the Z receiver.

No. 30: Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs by the Philadelphia Eagles

By taking two Crimson Tide players in the first round on April 27, the Eagles will solidify their status as Alabama’s NFL team. Philadelphia passed on talented Texas ball-carrier Bijan Robinson at No. 14 to take Tide safety Brian Branch. The Eagles don’t figure Gibbs will be around when they pick again at No. 62, and while they could trade back a little, they don’t chance it. In free agency this offseason, Philadelphia lost leading rusher Miles Sanders after he ran for 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2022, and signed running back Rashaad Penny, a former first-round pick who played in five games for the Seattle Seahawks in 2022 because of a broken leg.

No. 31: Tennessee wide receiver Jalin Hyatt by the Kansas City Chiefs

After losing No. 1 wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster in free agency, the Chiefs swing for the fences with the final selection of the first round by passing on Ohio State wide receiver Jaxon Smih-Njigba and overlooking their offseason losses at offensive tackle.

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Mark Inabinett is a sports reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @AMarkG1.