AL.com College Football Playoff Projection: The ACC decides Alabama’s fate
That’s it, that’s all.
The race to the 12-team college football playoff is over, and the Alabama Crimson Tide will not be in the field. And for the second year in a row, it’ll be thanks to the ACC championship game.
Last season, it was Florida State beating Louisville in a game that didn’t help with the Seminoles and their closing argument.
This year, it was a one-loss SMU coming all the way back from a 17-point deficit, only to have Clemson hit a game-winning 55-yard field goal as time expired. And now, folks in Grapevine, TX will now come together and decide either SMU or Alabama.
Does the committee have the courage?
Does the committee have the courage to tell SMU that their epic comeback in the ACC title game not enough? Nobody will know until 11 a.m. on Sunday morning.
However, AL.com’s projection says SMU is in, Alabama is out.
Now, what does the rest of the 12-team field look like?
It wouldn’t be a conference championship weekend without a final shakeup. In the Big 12 title game, league newbies Arizona State beat Iowa State in a winner-take-all shot at the playoff. Over in Atlanta, the Georgia Bulldogs beat the Texas Longhorns for the second time this season to win the SEC crown.
With Texas losing on Saturday, the Big Ten champion Oregon Ducks grab the top seed in the CFP. With most of the field already having been locked-in over the last two weeks, this is what I expect to see on Sunday when the bracket and rankings are revealed:
Top four CFP seeds (Highest ranked conference champions receive a first-round bye)
- Oregon (Big Ten–Rose Bowl)
- Georgia (SEC–Sugar Bowl)
- Boise State (MWC–Fiesta Bowl)
- Clemson (ACC–Peach Bowl)
First-round matchups
No. 12 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Texas (Austin, TX)
No. 11 SMU vs. No. 6 Penn State (State College, PA)
No. 10 Indiana vs. No. 7 Notre Dame (South Bend, IN)
No. 9 Tennessee vs. Ohio State (Columbus, OH)
Why SMU over Alabama?
From the Bowl Championship Series to the early versions of the College Football Playoff, the conference championships have always been important to deciding the bigger picture.
However, if you tell SMU, a team who lost their conference title game and has two losses, isn’t worthy of a title game sets a dangerous precedent that the committee will have to wear for a very long time.
SMU’s comeback and close loss with the nation watching showed everybody that they’re worthy of a spot. Alabama’s wins, while good are also compounded by three road losses, the last of which, a 24-3 loss to Oklahoma seems to be sticking out like a sore thumb.
Who else will be on the outside looking in?
The week-long lobbying of Ole Miss, South Carolina, and the ACC seems to have been all for naught.
Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Miami all raised an uproar over the comments made by committee chair Warde Manuel last Tuesday night. With all three schools not having played this weekend they’ll be outside the exclusive club.
I’m sure Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin will be very happy to know this during their trip to the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. I’m sure he won’t bring it up at all.