Limestone County might be the new fastest-growing county in Alabama in recent years.

But Baldwin County, the fastest growing county in Alabama since 2010, has arrived.

For the first time ever, Baldwin County is the predominate population base among counties in an Alabama congressional district following the court-ordered redistricting of Alabama’s congressional map, which led to new boundaries in the 1st and 2nd congressional districts.

Related content:

Under the new maps, Baldwin County’s voting-age population of 182,471 represents close to one-third of the 1st District’s overall voting age population of 557,336. It is now splintered from much of the City of Mobile, which is included in the redrawn 2nd District created by the courts to give Black voters a better opportunity of having representation in the U.S House.

A good portion of Mobile County still remains in District 1, with 120,974 voters. That is big enough to be the second-largest county within the district, trailing only Baldwin County. But it is also close to 61,000 fewer voting-age residents than Baldwin County, making the home to the state’s beaches a major player in future U.S. House races.

Houston County, home to the district’s largest city in Dothan, is a distant third with a voting-age population of 82,646.

“It’s the bellwether of the district, without a doubt,” Steve Flowers, a political commentator and former Republican member of the Alabama House, said about Baldwin County’s influence within the district. “It shows you how much the state has changed … Baldwin County was nothing but a rural and large geographical county. But Baldwin County is, indeed, going to benefit from this.”

Said Patrick McWilliams, the chairman of the Baldwin County GOP, “It’s the population epicenter and it will only grow.”

Shifting boundaries

A good portion of Mobile and Baldwin County are split into separate congressional districts for the first time in 40 years, when Baldwin County’s population was less than 60,000 residents. The county is now home to a whopping 231,767 residents.

Since Alabama’s 1st congressional district was split, a mostly right-leaning group of public officials have anguished over what they say is a lack of maintaining a “community of interest” along the Alabama Gulf Coast.

Communities of interest can be defined in many ways that include include proximity, shared interests and holidays such as Mardi Gras, celebrated by both Mobile and Baldwin counties but not in the Wiregrass. Baldwin County is now in the same congressional district of much of the entire Wiregrass region in Southeast Alabama.

Republican officials have also argued the shared interests of Mobile and Baldwin counties include economic synergy from employers.

“I think that having all of Mobile and Baldwin counties in Congressional District 1 was preferable,” said Alabama State Senator Chris Elliott, R-Josephine, and whose Senate district encompasses Baldwin County. “It’s about personal relationships and working together as a region. We do that in Coastal Alabama really well and will continue doing that if Spring Hill (in Mobile County) is in CD1 or 2. When it comes down to it, we can still benefit from representation from two different Congress people.”

U.S. Rep. Jerry Carl, R-Mobile, is seeking re-election to the 1st district despite the radically different geographic boundaries of the district that now stretch to the Alabama-Georgia state line in Houston and Henry counties. The new district includes Enterprise, home to incumbent 2nd District U.S. Rep. Barry Moore, who has yet to announce his political intentions.

Carl has the endorsements of a host of Republicans who dominate public office in both Mobile and Baldwin counties.

“Jerry has very good relationships with local and state officials in Baldwin County and across his district,” Elliott said about Carl, a former Mobile County Commissioner. “They’ve known and worked with him for a better part of a decade and trust what he will do on in Escambia County and Baldwin County just as if he lived in Fairhope or Summerdale. There is a comfort level there that may not exist with another candidate.”

If Carl decides someday to not run for re-election, officials like Elliott believe Baldwin County will likely produce the next congressman.

“I think Carl will be the congressman as long as he wants to be, but the likelihood that you see a Baldwin County emerging in the future, post-Jerry, is probably pretty good,” Elliott said.

Political realities

Politically, the new 1st district has the makings to be one the reddest in the country.

Baldwin County, the largest population base of District 1, has long been a reliably conservative county despite steady and rapid growth that has occurred for over 30 years.

More than 76% of the county’s voters backed Republican incumbent President Donald Trump during the 2020 election. Among the most populated counties in Alabama, Baldwin County had the highest support for the former president.

The county will be the king of a congressional district that is much more conservative than it was before the courts got involved in the state’s redistricting. Under the previous map, the congressional district was rated a +15 advantage for Republicans by Cook Political Report in 2017. That was good enough to rank the district No. 75 among the most Republican U.S. House districts in the U.S.

Under the new map – which excludes the City of Mobile but captures the rural and heavily conservative Wiregrass counties north of the Florida Panhandle – the district is now a +28 advantage for Republicans, tied for the six-most Republican district in the U.S. House.

Jacyln Bunch, an associate professor in the Department of Political Science and Criminal Justice at the University of South Alabama, said the growth trends in Baldwin County make predicting future outcomes of political races within the county difficult despite the overwhelming trend of Republicans dominating at the ballot box.

But what kind of Republicans could emerge? The congressional district has a long history of electing somewhat moderate and socially conservative Republicans to office.

Bunch said Baldwin County aligns closely with urban areas considered Democratic strongholds with economies reliant on professional and information-economy jobs and not as much with the agriculture and manufacturing bases that dominate in rural areas that trend Republican.

She said with a population older than the state’s average, demands will continue to rise for healthcare and other services. She also pointed to a recent study that showed management occupations, sales and office jobs dominating the county’s industry.

“Baldwin is perhaps one of the most interesting and dynamic counties to study in a political sense,” Bunch said. “The shifting demographic makeup, industry, and ultimately demands in goods and services may lead to a more nuanced result politically than one would expect,” she said. “Baldwin’s long-term political future is not as settled as other stable areas of Alabama.”

Elliott disagrees. He said the county’s voters tend to be “much more conservative” than other larger counties, and does not see any substantial changes occurring. He said that is reflected in the leadership elected to local and state offices.

Elliott said while politicians are concerned about business-related issues in Baldwin County, social concerns remain a strong political consideration.

“I’m business friendly, but that won’t be at the expense at what I think my constituents’ key goals and desires are,” Elliott said. “We don’t have the big business interests that Mobile has … we don’t have Airbus and Austal. Most are the smaller to medium size business interests who tend to be very, very conservative in their politics.”

Wiregrass, rural concerns

Baldwin County’s outsized influence in the district, early on, does not appear to be a concern in the Wiregrass and the more rural counties outside the coastal area that are now included in the 1st district.

“It’s not bothering me at all,” said State Rep. Matthew Hammett, R-Dozier, whose State House district covers Coffee, Covington and Escambia counties and who is also a member of the Wiregrass delegation. “I don’t see anyone upset about it. When we went into special session to redraw the maps, Covington County was redrawn into District 1. I started talking to Jerry Carl and built a relationship there. We don’t know who the congressman will be, but I think it will be good for all of us fighting for the southern part of the state and there is more of us now (within the 1st district).”

In Dothan, which is more than a three-hour drive to Baldwin County, Mayor Frank Saliba said the only concern he had with the redistricting effort was to ensure that Dothan remained in the same district as the small towns that surround the city.

“We need to work regionally to compete for statewide and federal funds,” said Saliba. “It’s my job as an elected official to work with whatever congressional district I am in and whoever the congressional rep that we have to express the concerns of the citizens and to go after as much funding as we can get, just like any other city.”

Saliba said the distance of Dothan to Mobile County does not concern him, noting that the city has been in congressional districts with larger cities and counties before – namely Montgomery.

“I think we can work together on issues,” he said. “The Port of Mobile, even though it’s far away from us, it benefits us and the entire state when it does well and that is just one typical asset in their area now that is in ours.”

He added, “We are trying to take a good, positive look on the situation. It’s where we are, and I have to make the best of where we are.”

Flowers and Bradley Byrne, the former District 1 congressman and now president & CEO with the Mobile Chamber, both said they are concerned the Wiregrass could get lost in the shuffle.

Said Flowers, “If you had a choice of fixing (the I-10 Mobile River Bridge and Bayway) or widening a road in Dothan, what will you fix? That is where the Wiregrass gets the short end of the stick.”

Byrne said the vast geography of District 1 could be problematic for a congressman, who lives in Mobile or Baldwin counties, to represent the Wiregrass and its unique interests.

“I’ve been complaining on what (the court-ordered redistricting) does to Mobile, but I can imagine what the people in Dothan think,” Byrne said. “It does hurt them. You have a major military base (Fort Novosel, former Fort Rucker) in Coffee County. I don’t have any doubt a congressman in this part of the district will do a lot to help interests in Dothan and Enterprise. But when you spread yourself out over a large aera, and you don’t get as much staff, there will be a give (and take) here.”

McWilliams, the head of the Baldwin County GOP, said the continued growth of Baldwin County will be influential for the entire district, adding that “I don’t see the Wiregrass having the same expansion we’re having here in Baldwin County.”

Houston County, since 2010, has grown less than 6%. Baldwin County’s growth since 2010 is 27.2%, by far the most of any county in the state.

Said McWilliams, “You cannot win Congressional District 1 without winning Baldwin County, and I stand by that.”