It’s easy to overestimate the importance of one win, but South Alabama’s 24-22 victory over Louisiana on Saturday completely changed the outlook of the Jaguars’ season.

South Alabama (5-5, 4-2 Sun Belt Conference) is now one win from achieving bowl-eligibility for the third straight year and is still alive for the conference championship. The Jaguars travel on Saturday to face last-place Southern Miss (1-9, 0-6), a team that has already fired its coach and that has been outscored 95-3 in the last two weeks.

“It was good to see us in a critical moment make it happen,” defensive tackle Maurice Strong said. “I’m going to take that move forward, take that momentum and try to get to a bowl game and have a chance to play for the Sun Belt championship. … But just day-by-day, we can’t really look ahead. Just taking care of Southern Miss is really the main goal right now. Let the chips fall where they may.”

The Louisiana win put South Alabama back in the thick of the race for the conference title, though it will need to some help to play in the Sun Belt championship game. The Jaguars must not only win out vs. Southern Miss on Saturday and Texas State on Nov. 29, but have Louisiana (8-1, 5-1) lose one of its final two games vs. Troy or at Louisiana-Monroe.

South Alabama is in good shape if there is a three-way tie for first place with Louisiana and Arkansas State, which is also 4-2 in conference play and beat the Jaguars 18-16 in Jonesboro on Oct. 5. The second tiebreaker (after head-to-head, which would not apply in a three-way tie) is division record, and South Alabama would be 5-1 against the West (vs. 4-2 for the Ragin’ Cajuns and Red Wolves) if all three finish 6-2 in league play.

“Two weeks ago, we came in here irritated, frustrated, whatever adjective you want to use, after (losing to) Georgia Southern, and we said, ‘hey, there’s still a lot of stuff to play for,’” South Alabama coach Major Applewhite said. “I don’t know, I can speculate, but I imagine there’s some guys that were sitting in this room like, ‘I don’t know.’

“Well, two weeks later, all that stuff’s back out there again. … If you’ve coached long enough, you’ve been around long enough in November, you understand what three and four games means when you’re within a game of conference and all those things are still possible.”

But even if South Alabama doesn’t win the division and play for a conference title, the Jaguars showed they could win a close game when they needed to make a play at the end. USA had been 0-3 this season in one-score games, and 1-5 the last two seasons, before Saturday.

South Alabama jumped out to a 24-3 halftime lead, before Louisiana scored 19 unanswered points to pull within two with 1:16 remaining. However, the Jaguars stuffed the Ragin’ Cajuns on a game-tying two-point attempt, with nose tackle Wy’Kevious Thomas stopping quarterback Chandler Fields just short of the goal line.

“We’ve talked about before that college football games normally come down to 3-5 plays, and you’ve got to be on the right side of those (to win),” defensive coordinator Will Windham said. “Three weeks ago, we weren’t. We gave up those two touchdowns late against Georgia Southern. That was kind of the preaching point of as we got closer at the end (vs. Louisiana).

“We had been really good in the red area all day. We held them to some field goals and that was the difference in the game. We talked about being our best on the play. We repped all the goal-line plays they had shown on Tuesday and Wednesday. When that play happened on Thursday in practice, (Thomas) made the play. And then it shows up when the game is on the line.”

South Alabama is a three-touchdown favorite vs. Southern Miss, which has lost eight straight since its lone win of the season over FCS opponent Southeastern Louisiana on Sept. 7. The Jaguars are 4-0 all-time vs. the Golden Eagles, including a 55-3 win in Mobile last season.

Southern Miss is last in the Sun Belt Conference in scoring offense (14.9 points per game) and scoring defense (36.6), as well as total offense, rushing offense and rushing defense. The Golden Eagles have allowed 38 sacks and have converted just 23.4 percent of their third downs.

“The record doesn’t really match (the talent),” Applewhite said. “Then you see the effort they play with. Then you look at games, whether it’s a two-score game with Arkansas State in the fourth quarter or whether it’s a one-score game with (Louisiana) at home in the fourth quarter. There are a lot of close games.

“So the thing that creeps into your mind as a coach is ‘I hope our players see this. I hope our players understand this.’ So talking to them and helping them understand, explain to them, ‘do you all feel like you all are a 5-5 team?’ ‘No, coach, we think we’re better.’ ‘OK, well, that’s probably the way they feel too.’ On Senior Day, they’re going to be playing with someone with emotion.”

Kickoff for South Alabama-Southern Miss on Saturday is set for 2 p.m. at M.M. Roberts Stadium in Hattiesburg. The game will stream live via ESPN+.