A little more than a year ago, Republican State Senator Andrew Jones stood up during a news conference and advocated for the removal of the state’s portion of the sales tax on groceries.

It was scene similar to what other politicians and activists have made since 1992, when Kimble Forrister – then the state coordinator of Alabama Arise – and then-Senator Hank Sanders first pushed to have the tax repealed.

“The people that receive the most help are the folks in the bottom percentile, folks who are struggling the most put food on the table,” said Jones, R-Centre, while flanked by members of Alabama Arise, the non-profit organization that advocates for the poor.

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The proposal did not advance last year, and skepticism loomed over whether Republicans would ever give it serious consideration.

But things have suddenly changed this year. The Legislature is now poised to cut the tax.

Under a plan that has support from all 35 members of the Alabama Senate, at least 2 percent of the 4 percent on the state sales tax on groceries could be cut through a gradual reduction plan over three years.

“This is an important thing,” said Angi Horn, a Republican Party strategist in Montgomery, referring to the unanimous support in the Senate. “Sometimes you can’t get every member of the Legislature to agree that the sun came up in the morning.”

What’s changed?

After three decades of stalling and setbacks, what has suddenly changed?

Republicans, who are in a supermajority, claim that inflation and expensive groceries is the main reason. Perhaps the biggest factor is that the state treasury is flushed with revenues. Alabama’s education budget has a massive $2.8 billion surplus, more than enough money to offset the lost revenue from a grocery tax cut. The state’s 4% tax on groceries contributes about $600 million to the ETF.

But why the grocery tax? For years, cutting the sales tax on groceries was an Alabama Democratic Party priority, along with Medicaid expansion, election reform, and other priorities that never gained traction.

“It’s been on our caucus agenda as long as I’ve been there which is nine years, and it’s going to benefit the consumers of Alabama,” said State Rep. Barbara Drummond, D-Mobile, the party’s caucus chair. “We got (Republican) Lt. Gov. (Will) Ainsworth championing it now. We just want to get it done.”

And perceptions about the GOP – rightly or wrongly – banked on the premise that Republicans were more likely to support tax cuts and incentives for high income earners and businesses, but not the poor. Alabama lawmakers already have approved this spring a package of bills to renew and expand tax incentives to lure big businesses and manufacturers to the state, and the governor even gave it a name: “The Game Plan.”

“I think our party has grown more supportive of these tax cuts,” Jones said this week, referring to tax cuts on necessities like groceries. “The grocery tax is very regressive. People have to eat and it’s a fundamental need.”

He added, “I represent a lot of rural areas and the term food deserts is invoked now. I have constituents who drive a long way to get groceries and they stock up for every two or three weeks. They spend a lot. Having that tax off will be a savings for them.”

Changing Republicans

Indeed, from a political perspective, changing views about pushing through the tax cut also coincides with the changing demographics of the Republican Party over the past 20 years.

Between the year 2000 and four years of 2010-14, the number of people living below the poverty line ($24,230 for a family of four about 10 years ago) in Republican districts climbed by 49% between the year 2000 and 2010-14, compared to a 33% increase in Democratic districts, according to 2016 research published by the Brookings Institute.

The report suggests Republican districts, ahead of the 2016 presidential election, accounted for 60 percent of the increase in the nation’s poor population during that time.

Electorally, the Republican Party’s strengths in poorer counties began strengthening in 2004. By 2016, with former President Donald Trump on the ticket, the GOP won almost twice the share of votes in the nation’s most destitute counties – home to the poorest 10% of Americans – than it won in the richest, according to a New York Times analysis in 2020.

Alabama, which is among the reddest states in the nation, also relies heavily on federal aid for residents who shop at grocery stores. More than 761,000 residents – 1 in 7 or 15% of the state’s total population, according to the latest statistics – received assistance last year from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), the nation’s most effective anti-hunger program. The national average is 1 in 8 residents, or 12%.

“If we’re blatantly honest about it, back the clock up two generations ago, and the Republican Party of Alabama was the party of the country club,” said Jess Brown, a retired political science professor at Athens State University and a longtime observer of Alabama state politics. “That is no longer the case. The working class identifies with the Republican Party.”

He added, “Donald Trump and other politicians in the Republican ranks (today) brought to the table what I call the Ernest T. Bass voters,” said Brown referring to the character on the The Andy Griffith Show. “(Bass) was passionate about things but didn’t have a lot of money and wasn’t all that informed. You have got now within the Republican ranks quite a few folks who are working class and middle class who see this (grocery tax cut) as a small benefit to them.”

The tax cut is resonating with groups that Republicans in Montgomery routinely encounter.

Alabama House Speaker Nathaniel Ledbetter, R-Rainsville, recalls talking to a couple of different organizations in April – crowds totaling 300 people — and having only two people telling him that they wanted a one-time rebate over a permanent tax cut.

Tax rebates were pitched by Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey during her State of the State Address, but her fellow GOP lawmakers in the Legislature have pushed harder for a tax cut – and groceries have been the target.

“Do they remember what they got back in the Trump rebate?” said Ledbetter, referring to the $600 rebate checks distributed in 2021, as part of the former president’s COVID-19 relief package. “I’ve asked five to six people that question, and no one can tell me what it was. From a long-term aspect, a tax cut is better in my opinion.”

The grocery tax cut, he said, impacts the working class and provides relief to retirees.

Horn, the Republican Party strategist, said the issue also resonated among Republican newcomers as they campaigned last year.

“Lots of things are taxed, but this is people’s abilities to eat and feed families,” Horn said. “I think Republicans have been very clear that if they can assist hard working families, they will.”

Flush budgets

But why now?

Alabama, like most states, is flush with revenues following the pandemic. The Education Trust Fund’s surplus is at an all-time high, and pressure is being applied for the Republican supermajority to enact meaningful tax relief.

Among the groups leading the charge is the conservative Alabama Policy Institute (API). The organization has been calling for permanent tax cuts, including a cut to the state’s portion of the grocery tax, since at least last year.

The group has called out Alabama lawmakers for not enacting meaningful permanent tax cuts at a time when other right-leaning states were doing so. API has also called for a cut in the state’s portion of the grocery tax since 2019, to correspond with the Legislature’s increase in the state’s fuel tax in 2019.

Justin Bogie, senior director of fiscal policy at API, said the biggest change in attitudes over the grocery tax cut is with the “unprecedented growth of state revenues,” specifically ETF revenues, over the past few years.

“In 2008, state budgets were not as well positioned to absorb such a revenue loss,” said Bogie. “ETF surpluses have averaged more than a billion dollars annually over the past five years. Today, there is little question that the state can afford to eliminate the 4% grocery tax, without increasing other taxes. That was much less certain 15 years ago.”

For years, a cadre of state lawmakers – some long retired – have pitched grocery tax cuts from Sanders to his fellow Democratic Rep. John Knight of Montgomery to Republican State Senator Gerald Dial of Lineville.

Lawmakers even debated, in the late 1990s, to offset the revenue cuts with tobacco settlement money.

Former Republican State Senator Tripp Pittman of Montrose said the current phase-out approach of the state’s grocery tax mirrors similar proposals backed for years by Dial. But he said the reason those prior plans languished was because of tighter budgets.

“These budgets are (currently) twice as much as they used to be,” said Pittman, referring to the state’s General Fund and ETF budgets.

Former State Senator Rusty Glover, who served in the Legislature from 2002-2018, said Republicans also opposed past plans, pushed by Democrats, to offset the grocery tax cut by ending a tax deduction that allows Alabamians to deduct federal income tax payments from their income before calculating state income taxes.

State Senator Merika Coleman, D-Pleasant Grove, is currently pushing a similar plan for cutting the entire 4% state portion of the sales tax, though Republican lawmakers have not expressed support for it.

“That would have been a high tax increase to the tune of $400 to $500 million for those who were writing their federal income tax on their state taxes,” said Glover.

High inflation

Also fueling the push for a tax cut is the increases in food prices. The price for a dozen eggs in Alabama was $6.12 in January, or 74% more than a year ago. Food inflation continues to be a problem, with prices at the grocery stores 8.5% higher in March compared to a year ago.

“I think that the connection to rising inflation has made the issue more salient and sellable to constituents and policymakers have looked at eliminating the grocery tax as a simple way to relieve some of the pressure of rising prices,” said Eric Figueroa, senior manager of strategic projects and initiatives at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities – a progressive think tank based in Washington, D.C., that analyzes the impact on federal and state government budgets.

Republicans in Alabama are blaming the Biden Administration for economic policies they believe have fueled inflation. And cutting the grocery tax, they believe, is crucial at combatting the current administration.

“Cutting the grocery tax has become even more important with the struggles our citizens are facing because of the disastrous economic policies coming out of Democrat-controlled Washington, D.C.,” said John Wahl, chairman of the Alabama Republican Party. “Alabamians are struggling to make ends meet, with the increases in the cost of living and skyrocketing inflation.”

The party conducted a rare poll on a policy issue last month that showed an overwhelming number of Alabama Republicans and Democrats support a permanent cut to the sales tax on groceries as opposed to a rebate. That followed up withAinsworth’s push to get all 35 members of the Alabama Senate to co-sign as sponsors to Jones’ bill.

Alabama, which remains one of only three states that taxes groceries at its full amount without offering a corresponding credit to low-income people, is poised to make something happen in the final 12 days of the legislative session.

“Now is the time to cut the grocery tax,” Wahl said.