A new crop of collegiate talent enters the NFL every season, and one of the top players fans will keep an eye on is Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner makes his regular-season debut in Week 1 when Daniels leads the Commanders to Raymond James Stadium for a showdown with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Coming off a third-straight NFC South title, the Buccaneers are favored to win in the NFL Week 1 odds. However, Daniels and Co. seem poised to start 2024 with a bang.

NFL Week 1 Commanders vs. Buccaneers odds

The point spread in Commanders vs. Buccaneers opened at Buccaneers -4.5 but has diminished to Tampa Bay -3.5 at sites like BetMGM Sportsbook. With a 12-7 record against the spread in 2023, according to TeamRankings, the Buccaneers were a betting darling. Meanwhile, the Commanders were a great team to fade, going 6-10-1 ATS.

With moneyline odds as high as +160 at Fanatics Sportsbook, Washington provides excellent value if you’ve got faith in head coach Dan Quinn’s team. You’ll have to deal with -190 odds to take the Buccaneers outright.

Why the Buccaneers could win as the favorite

A win total of 7.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook shows oddsmakers expect regression for the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is +290 to win the division, trailing only the Atlanta Falcons at -145.

The biggest loss Tampa Bay endured in the offseason was offensive coordinator Dave Canales leaving to take the head coaching vacancy with the Carolina Panthers. Canales gets the best out of his QBs and helped Baker Mayfield post career numbers in 2023. Quickly adjusting to life without Canales is vital vs. the Commanders.

The Bucs benefit from the return of Mike Evans, one of the most consistent pass catchers in the NFL. With underrated RB Rachaad White, Tampa Bay has a formidable trio with Mayfield, Evans and White.

The Buccaneers’ defense was top-tier a season ago, and that trend must continue in Week 1 as the offense works under new coordinator Liam Coen.

Why the Commanders could win as the underdog

The Commanders’ locker room is loaded with fresh faces, the most prominent being Daniels. Jayden was an incredible dual-threat QB with LSU, posting 3,812 passing yards, 1,134 rushing yards and 50 total touchdowns. Despite the eye-popping passing numbers, the California native threw only four interceptions.

Daniels isn’t expected to lead the team to the postseason in 2024, but that doesn’t mean a strong Week 1 performance is off the table. It’ll be needed to get an early-season road victory.

Washington was aggressive in free agency, signing veterans like Bobby Wagner, Austin Ekeler and Zach Ertz to improve on both sides of the ball. While the future is bright for the Commanders, building chemistry with an abundance of new coaches and players takes time, and Washington will hit bumps in the road this season.

One thing Commanders fans can feel good about is improvement defensively. The season before Quinn became the Dallas Cowboys’ defensive coordinator, Big D allowed nearly 30 points per game. Then in 2021 when Quinn took over, that number shrunk to 21 points allowed per game.

Best Commanders vs. Buccaneer player prop pick: Jayden Daniels 40+ rushing yards (+115 odds at DraftKings)

It’s natural for a young QB with speed to be quick to leave the pocket and try picking up yards with their legs. Acclimating to NFL defenses is difficult, and when throwing windows are tight downfield, expect Daniels to take off.

Daniels led all college QBs in rushing yards last season with LSU, adding 10 touchdowns on the ground. The Buccaneers were stellar run-stoppers in 2023, allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards. However, Tampa Bay didn’t face many QBs with Daniels’ running prowess.

If Commanders’ offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury calls designed run plays for Daniels, he’ll be well-positioned to surpass 40 rushing yards.