A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico could bring some beneficial rain to parts of Alabama later this week — and hopefully nothing else.

The National Hurricane Center said the system, which was in the southwestern Gulf on Sunday, could organize into a tropical depression in the next few days and slowly move northward.

It’s not certain where it will go, or how strong it could get, but east Texas or southwest Louisiana looked like more likely targets as of Sunday. Tropical storm watches could be coming for some of those areas later today or tonight.

However, those along the Alabama coast were urged to keep a close eye on the forecast in case it changes. A developing tropical system can be difficult to nail down as far as the track and intensity go, and track changes are possible.

If the forecast holds and the storm (which could get the name Francine or Gordon) moves inland to the west of Alabama, it could bring some rain to the state later this week as it continues to push inland and weaken.

The seven-day precipitation outlook from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (shown that the top of this post) shows that parts of the state could see 2 to 4 inches of rain over the next week, with the southern and western part of the state potentially getting the most.

The National Weather Service in Birmingham said moisture should really start increasing across the state by Wednesday, and the developing storm could pull a lot of tropical moisture into the state by Thursday into Friday.

Forecasters will be alert to the possibility of tropical-spawned tornadoes, which can develop on the eastern side of a tropical storm, but that will depend on the strength of the system and where it makes landfall.

The weather service was more confident about the potential for beneficial rainfall for the state, much of which is in Level 1 and Level 2 drought conditions, according to the latest report from the U.S. Drought Monitor:

“There’s certainly increasing confidence for beneficial rains across our region mid to late week, which is good news,” the weather service in Birmingham said on Sunday in its forecast discussion.

“However, interests along the Gulf Coast and throughout Alabama should stay tuned to the forecast over the coming days. We’ll be able to sort out any potential weather hazards that are still unclear at this forecast range.”